Draft day is coming fast, and picking the right fantasy football running backs can make or break a season. Running backs drive wins in fantasy leagues, but the position is loaded with risk, injuries, and shifting workloads. Understanding which RB1s provide elite upside and which carry red flags is critical before draft day. Here’s a breakdown of the top fantasy football running backs, split into two tiers, with analysis on value, consistency, and where to target each player.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recent Big Guy Fantasy Sports Podcast.)
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The Elite Tier of RB1s
The first tier of fantasy football running backs includes Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry. Robinson, Barkley, and Gibbs are interchangeable at the top. All three are going within the first six picks in standard one-quarterback leagues. They bring receptions, strong offensive environments, and a clear stranglehold on carries. Derrick Henry, while still dominant, often falls to the late first or early second round due to age and workload concerns.
Barkley is the most polarizing back in this group. His touch totals worry many managers, and past injuries raise red flags. However, he nearly doubled his yards before contact last year compared to his time with the Giants. Most of his injuries have been flukes rather than soft tissue issues, and Philadelphia plans to feed him heavily. Despite the whispers about the “Madden Curse,” Barkley is a player to target confidently in the top five if healthy.
McCaffrey Leads the RB1B Tier
Christian McCaffrey tops the second group of fantasy football running backs, but he is still a potential league winner. His average draft position is around pick 13 to 15, often near the turn of the first round. Just four seasons ago, he nearly posted the second-highest fantasy score ever, finishing just behind LaDainian Tomlinson.
The 49ers may rely on McCaffrey even more this season. Debo Samuel is gone, and other offensive weapons could miss time. A healthy McCaffrey can bring 70 to 80 catches in a PPR format and still run for 100-yard games with multiple scores. Managers worried about his injuries are missing the upside. With his floor and ceiling, McCaffrey should be drafted as a top-five or top-six back when available.
Achane’s Volatility
DeVon Achane offers both huge upside and noticeable risk among fantasy football running backs. He finished fifth in total points last season but only ranked 16th in consistency at 71 percent. Achane logged 87 targets, second among running backs, and ran the most routes at his position since David Johnson’s peak in Arizona.
His fantasy value is tied directly to Miami’s health, especially Tua Tagovailoa. The offense crumbled when Tua missed time, and backups like Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and now Zach Wilson failed to keep the attack running. Mike McDaniel’s scheme leans heavily on speed, and Achane benefits from that explosiveness, but the volatility is real. If you draft Achane, it is crucial to balance him with safer options early in the draft.
Jeanty and Rookie Risk
Rookie Ashton Jeanty is one of the most hyped fantasy football running backs entering drafts. His average draft position has risen near the eighth overall pick, which feels aggressive given his circumstances. The Boise State product joins a rebuilding Raiders offense with Geno Smith at quarterback and few reliable weapons outside of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
Jeanty might get 30 touches a game early, but that workload could vanish by season’s end. The Raiders are unlikely to risk their rookie workhorse late in a losing season. Veterans like Raheem Mostert and Sincere McCormick may siphon carries, especially if Jeanty struggles in pass protection or the team wants to protect him. While the rookie could succeed on volume, the risk makes him hard to trust over proven receivers or more established backs in the same range.
Williams and Irving as RB2 Targets
Kyren Williams offers volume but comes with efficiency concerns. He ranked seventh in total points last season with a 94 percent consistency rate, but tied for the league lead in fumbles and saw his yards per carry drop. The Rams added explosive rookie Darquez Hunter and last year’s pick, Blake Corum, which could cut into his 27 to 30 touches per game. Williams still owns goal-line work, making him a reliable RB2, but risky as a standalone RB1.
Bucky Irving, meanwhile, broke out by replacing Rashad White in Tampa Bay last year. He ended with 71 percent consistency and finished 13th in total points, with most of his production coming after Week 9. Tampa Bay throws often, averaging 500 to 600 attempts a season, so his week-to-week floor can be shaky. Irving is best paired with a stud RB1, as his passing game role and playmaking make him a strong but volatile second back.
Jacobs and Taylor at the Turn
Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor round out the RB1 rankings and often land near the Round 2 turn. Jacobs remains dependable, posting 94 percent consistency and finishing sixth in points last year despite heavy workloads. He draws comparisons to Matt Forte, producing year after year even as fantasy managers doubt him.
Taylor remains the bigger talent but carries far more risk. Injuries have derailed multiple seasons, and the Colts’ offense is inconsistent with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones under center. If healthy, Taylor can flash as an RB1 for stretches, but his volatility makes Jacobs the safer selection. Both are viable as RB2s if paired with an elite first-rounder, but many managers will prefer elite receivers in this draft range.
Draft Approach and Final Thoughts
Drafting fantasy football running backs in 2024 is about balancing upside and reliability. The top-tier backs offer massive ceilings but come with health and workload risks. The RB1B options like McCaffrey, Achane, Jeanty, Williams, and Irving bring strong value but require careful roster construction.
Many successful managers may skip backs like Jacobs, Taylor, or Irving at the Round 2 turn, opting for elite receivers instead. There is depth at RB2 in later rounds, with many players projected to provide value in the fourth and fifth rounds. Building around top receivers and targeting mid-round running backs could be the safer path.
