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Fantasy Football Draft: Running Backs or Wide Receivers?
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Fantasy Football drafts give managers a constant internal struggle. Do I lean running back heavy? Wide receiver heavy? 0RB or hero-RB? I broke down the last two seasons to determine which strategies have the most consistent data.
Fantasy football drafts are becoming more prevalent every week as we’re now 8 weeks from the NFL season! I decided to take a look at the last few seasons to see if leaning towards running back or wide receiver was the best strategy.
Utilizing consistency, fantasy points per game, and overall fantasy position, I made some interesting observations, as fantasy seems to be leaning more towards wide receivers recently.
Below, I touch on my findings for running backs first, then wide receivers, and give a final recommendation for your upcoming fantasy football drafts. Also, sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football Draft Recommendations – 7/15/2025 Fantasy Football: Consistency
Fantasy Football Draft: Running Backs
For those who have played fantasy football for a while, we remember the good ol’ days of all running backs, all the time. Running backs were easily the kings of the 1st round of every draft. Consensus top picks were running backs each year.
From 2018 to 2022, running backs made up 43 of a possible 60 1st round picks (71.67% in PPR, 12-team leagues). Over that same span, running backs were 54.17% of all picks through 2 rounds (65 of 120 picks). Christian McCaffrey was the king of fantasy football during this time. He was a top pick who averaged over 29.5 points as the “league winner” in 2019, scoring 471.2 points, the 2nd highest fantasy total in history (LaDainian Tomlinson scored 481 in 2006). He was tied for the league lead in points per game the season before at 24.1 as well (non-quarterbacks).
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From 2018 to 2020, the top running backs outscored the top wide receivers. The top scorer at running back outscored the top scorer at wide receiver by at least 19.4 points each season. The actual average difference over the 3 seasons was 56.1 points. In fantasy football drafts during those 3 years, it was crucial to hit on an early running back. 17 running backs scored more than 275 points compared to 16 wide receivers.
During a fantasy football draft, the odds were higher that you’d get the leading overall fantasy scorer. You were also slightly favored to get a higher-scoring running back than a wide receiver with each early pick. However, this scenario flipped later in the draft, as 74 wide receivers scored more than 200 fantasy points compared to only 47 running backs. The RB36 scored an average of 136.43 points, whereas the WR36 scored an average of 170.57.
The Wide Receiver Renaissance
In 2021, it marked the first season since 2015 that the top wide receiver outscored the top running back. That receiver, Cooper Kupp, scored 439.5 points. Not just outpacing the highest running backs but setting the highest fantasy score since McCaffrey. Kupp is ranked as the 7th-best fantasy season of all time.
From 2021 to 2024, the WR1 outscored the RB1 3 times. No running back during that time frame topped 400 fantasy points, but 3 wide receivers did (Ja’Marr Chase with 403, CeeDee Lamb with 403.2, and Kupp).
Not only was it top-heavy for wide receivers; 109 wide receivers during this period scored more than 200 fantasy points. That was easily more than the 75 running backs who did the same thing. 59% of the highest-scoring 184 players were wide receivers during this stretch. During the past few seasons, we’ve had an influx of high-end wide receiver talent. Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and the list goes on and on.
In a fantasy football draft, those guys have pushed the ADP (average draft position) of wide receivers higher each year. At least 5 of the 12 1st round draft picks have been wide receivers since 2022. Even the WR36 has averaged 10.25 points per game since 2021. The RB36 has only averaged 7.99 during that time.
Conclusion: RBs are Undervalued Early
Chase led all non-quarterback scorers last season with 23.7 fantasy points per game. A closer look revealed the next 5 top non-quarterback scorers per game were all running backs. Each of them averaged more than 19 points per game.
36 running backs went over 14 points per game in 2023 and 2024 combined. 5 of those running backs had a Clutch Rate (CR) of 100%. 51 wide receivers scored over 14 points per game (3 WRs had a CR of 100%). On average, 43.5 wide receivers had a CR of 50% or higher, compared to 33 running backs doing the same thing.
200 points over 17 games is 11.76 points per game. Over the last 2 seasons, an average of 29.5 wide receivers have hit that mark. Only 19.5 running backs on average hit that mark. Most teams will roster more than three running backs. The RB48 (4 running backs per team) averaged 5.92 points per game.
For 2025, ADP has 7 wide receivers in the 1st round, 19 of the first 36 picks, and 23 of the first 48 picks. The late running back flyers and handcuffs don’t pan out as often as fantasy managers think. A top-end wide receiver may be worth an early pick, but if I do, I’m pounding running back the next few rounds.
Fantasy football drafts are all about value! Sometimes positional runs can determine how you draft, but if you pay attention to point differential, then you’re ahead of the curve. On X, reach out and let’s talk football, @JKeasy! For even more consistency, click the banner above to buy the Consistency Guide by Bob Lung!
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