Football
Kyler Murray vs. Justin Herbert: NFL Fantasy Consistency Tiebreakers
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Ron Rigney examines 2 NFL QBs with similar ADPs to focus on where the real consistency lies.
| Categories | Kyler Murray | Justin Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Total Points | 10 | 13 |
| 2024 Clutch Rating | 53% (9 for 17) | 41% (7 for 17) |
| Current 2025 ADP | Pick 85 | Pick 96 |
Kyler Murray vs. Justin Herbert
Tale of the Tape…
The tale of the tape is fairly even when looking at these two mid-round QBs. Both finished as QB2s in our rankings. Heading into 2025, we have Kyler Murray as a QB1B and Justin Herbert as a QB2B, but much in terms of fantasy points and ADP don’t separate them. So, who should you give the nod to when looking for a QB in Round 7 or 8? Let’s figure it out.
In 2024, Murray’s clutch performances were more sporadic while Herbert’s all came after Week 8. If you were a Herbert owner in 2024, it was a frustrating start, which I believe could partially be blamed on an ankle injury. After Week 8, Herbert was 7 for 11 in clutch games for a 63% clutch rating. Murray, on the other hand, was just 5 for 11 for a 45% mark.
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Top Targets
Each player had a new impressive rookie target. Both Ladd McConkey and Marvin Harrison Jr. were good. Still, McConkey became more of a consistent target than Harrison Jr. During Herbert’s late-season consistency hot streak, McConkey matched Herbert’s eight clutch games. Harrison tallied just five. You can’t deny Harrison Jr.’s talent, but it’s clear the more consistent target is McConkey here.
RB Room
The nod goes to the Chargers here, as long as Najee Harris recovers from his fireworks mishap. The team added him as well as brought in first-round pick Omarion Hampton in the offseason. Hampton figures to be the lead dog despite Harris’ health, but both will get enough touches to set up the passing game.
The Cardinals will roll with familiar faces James Conner and Trey Benson. Conner has found a home in Arizona, and we haven’t seen Benson’s full potential yet. They will combine to give Murray a solid rushing attack in 2025.
Advantage: Chargers
WR Room
The Chargers head into the season with former first-rounder Quentin Johnston, along with McConkey as mentioned earlier, as the top targets. Second-rounder Tre Harris is a polished route runner and a big target who could make a difference in the red zone. He could push Johnston for snaps.
The Cardinals don’t have much after Harrison Jr. The second and third options at WR figure to be Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. Both are inconsistent and unspectacular. There’s not much more to say here.
Advantage: Chargers
TE Room
While the Chargers don’t have a dominant number one at the position, Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin won’t be top fantasy picks, but they offer steady options for Herbert. Rookie Oronde Gadsden Jr. comes in as an intriguing athlete who could push for targets, especially in the red zone.
The Cards boast one of the top options in the league at the position in Trey McBride. After that, it’s a guy named Tip and two other dudes you’ve never heard of.
Advantage: Cardinals
General Facts
O-Line Advantage: Chargers – It’s close, the Cards unit is better than you think.
Schedule advantage: Cardinals – AZ has one of the easiest in the league, while the Chargers rank 12th toughest slate.
Who should you take?
I understand the argument for Murray’s rushing upside, and he did outperform Herbert there in 2024. Herbert doesn’t give you zero there either, though, and has been an underrated source of rushing numbers at the position. Who’s the better passer when the rushing stats aren’t there?
For me, it’s Herbert, and that’s who I’m taking. I feel much better about him one round late, and I fully expect him to finish as a QB1. Despite the Chargers wanting to run, it’s going to be tough not to rely on Herbert and his passing ability as long as he’s healthy. I fully expect to have a lot of shares of him heading into 2025.
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