Football
Fantasy ADP Movers this week: Darren Waller is at the top!
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Each week, events cause movement in the Average Draft Position (ADP). Fantasy Footballers must stay up to date on the fantasy ADP movers each week.
It’s so close now. We’re nine weeks away from NFL football and officially past July 4th! I hope you all had a wonderful holiday weekend.
The ADP (average draft position) for players continues to fluctuate with the incoming news. Every day, we’re getting tidbits of information that push fantasy ADP movers.
I’m back this week to share some insights on a few key movers! Keep reading, and let’s dig in! Also, sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football ADP Updates (with consistency) – 7/8/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP
TE Darren Waller NYG Fantasy ADP MOVERS.
Of fantasy ADP movers, Darren Waller is the highest riser this week. Up over six spots, Waller surprised all fantasy footballers by unretiring a few days ago. He joins the Miami Dolphins, who just traded away Jonnu Smith, their starter last season at tight end.
The last time we saw Darren Waller playing in the NFL was with the New York Giants in 2023. He appeared in 12 games, amassing 52 receptions, 552 yards, and 1 touchdown. Despite it being considered a “down” year for Waller, he still managed a TE13 finish in points per game at 9.4.
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(ADP +6.5, pick 163.5, Rostered 8.5% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Smith, recently traded to Pittsburgh, vacates 111 targets within the Dolphins offense. In 2023, Waller only saw 74 targets for his TE13 finish. In his two seasons where he saw more than 100 targets, Waller finished as TE5 and TE2 in points per game (2019 and 2020).
Smith finished last season as TE5 in points per game despite less-than-ideal quarterback play. This season, Tua Tagovailoa is coming in healthy, and the Dolphins also signed backup quarterback Zach Wilson as an insurance policy. In eight of the twelve games Waller played in during the 2023 season, he was at least a TE2 (with three of those games being a TE1). I expect his ADP to continue rising, but at his current price, he’s easily worth a dart throw.
TE Tucker Kraft GB
It feels like a tight end week for fantasy ADP movers. Tucker Kraft is another one whose stock is continuing to rise. In Kraft’s favor is the fact that none of the current Green Bay Packers wide receivers have shown to be target hogs. Rookie Matthew Golden is to be determined, and the incumbents all had 76 or fewer targets last season.
Kraft finished 4th on the team in targets (70) but 2nd in receptions (50). He led tight ends in yards after catch per reception with 9.1. That was almost two and a half yards more than George Kittle, who finished 2nd at 6.7. An uptick in targets could see Kraft explode in fantasy football this year.
(ADP +3.2, pick 130, Rostered 80.1% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Despite the low amount of targets last season, Kraft still finished as TE10 overall with 163.3 points. His 11 20+ yard receptions tied for 3rd amongst tight ends with Sam LaPorta (behind only Brock Bowers with 15 and George Kittle with 21). He also was tied for 2nd with Mark Andrews for the longest reception by a tight end last year at 67 yards (Chig Okonkwo led with a 70-yard reception).
Kraft being drafted at the end of the 10th round feels extremely cheap. 3.5 points per game separated him from being a top 5 tight end last season, or 59.5 points total. Kraft can reach 100 targets this season. Assuming his same pace from last year, that would give him 21 more receptions, 296 more yards, and 2 more touchdowns. That’s an additional 62.6 points, good enough for TE4 last year.
TE Jake Ferguson DAL
The Dallas Cowboys made a splash move earlier in the offseason by acquiring George Pickens. Pickens will slide in as the WR2 within the offense, but people aren’t forgetting about Jake Ferguson (up 2 spots this week). Ferguson finished 2nd last season in targets for Dallas with 86.
The addition of Pickens will affect Ferguson. He should easily take over as the 2nd target earner for Dallas. The biggest issue for Ferguson is that he doesn’t do anything to warrant high usage. The only advanced metrics for tight ends from last season that he placed in the top 12 were yards after contact (8th overall) and broken tackles (tied for 3rd). His 59 receptions were a product of a lack of target competition, not because he earned them.
(ADP +2.0, pick 161.2, Rostered 40.8% on ESPN redraft/snake)
So far this draft season, it’s been popular for drafters to pay up for the likes of Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle. For those who miss out, they wait until the later rounds to grab a tight end. In this scenario, Jake Ferguson represents a well-known name in a legit Dallas Cowboys offense. His 8.4 yards per reception was 12th on his team, ahead of only the running backs. That was good for 64th amongst all tight ends last season. In yards after catch per reception, he had 5.2, 39th amongst tight ends.
Even in the 13th round (pick 161.2), where Ferguson is going, I’d much rather have a higher-upside player. Amongst players at tight end going later than him, give me Waller (163.5), Hunter Henry (166.5), and even rookie Mason Taylor (169.6) above Ferguson. Even with a healthy Dak Prescott, I’m out on Ferguson this season.
TE Jonnu Smith PIT Fantasy ADP MOVERS.
Again, another tight end on the movers list. This time it’s a repeat from earlier in the series, Jonnu Smith. This week, Smith’s on the fantasy ADP movers list for all the wrong reasons. He was traded in a package from the Miami Dolphins to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’ll reunite with Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith (from their Atlanta Falcons days), but that’s not necessarily a good thing.
Smith’s 11.7 drop in draft position still has him in the 10th round. He enjoyed success, especially last season, while in Miami with Mike McDaniel. He averaged 13.1 points per game during their time together, making him TE5 in points per game. In Atlanta with his former coordinator, he only averaged around 8 points per game.
(ADP -11.7, pick 116.6, Rostered 83.5% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Most remember Smith for being the tight end who took snaps away from Kyle Pitts in Atlanta. It was frustrating, to say the least, for those who rostered Pitts. Now in Pittsburgh, it looks like he is on track to do the same thing to Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth was TE9 overall last season, so it’s not like he’s underachieved. The most likely outcome is that both players poach opportunities, leading to frustrating results for fantasy players.
I’ve been back and forth on Smith all offseason. I won’t say that the trade to Pittsburgh excites me, but with no real receiving threats other than D.K. Metcalf and Freiermuth, there’s a chance Smith succeeds. The team has Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, who’s had a few seasons with multiple high-end receiving options in the past. With all of that said, in the back part of the 10th round, I’ll pass.
TE Pat Freiermuth PIT
This guy and Smith above are going to be tied together this season. Both are tight ends who were TE10 in points per game or better the previous season. They find themselves on the same offense now. Just like Smith, Pat Freiermuth is a faller for fantasy ADP movers this week. Down almost 8 spots, it’s hard to argue that the Smith acquisition is a good thing for him.
As I mentioned above, there is a possibility that both tight ends thrive. We’ve seen teams utilize two tight ends in the past. The 2011 New England Patriots did it best with Aaron Hernandez (70 receptions, 900 yards, and 7 touchdowns) and Rob Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1,327 yards, and 17 touchdowns). Most recently, we’ve seen teams like the Baltimore Ravens utilize two tight ends successfully (Mark Andrews as TE8 and Isaiah Likely as TE21 in points per game last season).
(ADP -7.7, pick 164.9, Rostered 37% on ESPN redraft/snake)
The tandem for the Ravens leaves some hope that both Smith and Freiermuth can be TE2s or better. Two advantages for Freiermuth. One, he’s the incumbent; two, behind Metcalf as the WR1, the Steelers don’t have much to rely on. Roman Wilson, Robert Woods, and Calvin Austin III don’t elicit any fear from opposing defenses.
Freiermuth goes almost 50 picks after Smith. In the 13th round, you should be taking a shot at him. He has a legitimate chance to be a top 2 target on this team, which is what we want at tight end. The receiving tree here is going to be very narrow; Metcalf, Freiermuth, and Smith will outpace everyone else by a wide margin. I’ll take the sale price on Freirmuth over Smith.
WR Jack Bech LV Fantasy ADP MOVERS.
The Las Vegas Raiders overhauled their offense this offseason. They brought in Geno Smith to take over at quarterback. They then drafted running back Ashton Jeanty (6th overall), wide receivers Jack Bech (58th overall), and Dont’e Thornton (108th overall). Camp news has Thornton receiving more first-team reps than Bech, which has caused Bech to drop almost three spots this week in ADP.
That news has Bech on the outside looking in. As things are on the depth chart, the 3 starting wide receivers for the Raiders will be Jakobi Meyers, Thornton, and Tre Tucker. On a team that already has Brock Bowers set to dominate targets from the tight end position, it’ll be hard to make any fantasy noise as the 5th/6th option.
(ADP -2.8, pick 144.1, Rostered 53.6% on ESPN redraft/snake)
As a Senior at TCU, Bech managed 1,034 yards and 9 touchdowns. A downside, despite being his career high, he only accumulated a 19.1% target share. For comparison, in their final seasons, the following wide receivers were drafted this season: Emeka Egbuka (24.1%), Jayden Higgins (29.4%), Tetairoa McMillan (30.9%). Even scarier, he only had 3 games in his college career with over 25% target share.
Bech can break through, but things aren’t looking great. I’m not going to bet that Bech can be successful in an offense where his best ability overlaps with the two top target earners already there (Meyers and Bowers, short to intermediate routes). In the 12th round, I’ll be letting someone else take that risk.
Fantasy ADP movers continue to dominate the headlines. Next week I’ll be back with more of the ADP Risers and Fallers series! On X, follow me, @JKeasy, as we can discuss moving ADPs, sleepers, and much more!
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