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NFL Wild Card Week Prop Picks – 1/10/26
Wild Card Week – NFL Prop Picks
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Tyler Higbee OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards
But Colby, the Rams have four tight ends that all get in the mix? Why are you looking at Higbee here? Let me tell you why! After missing a month and a half, check out the numbers amongst the team’s tight ends in Week 18 against Arizona:
|
Snap Share |
Route Share |
aDOT (# of Targets) |
Yards per Route Run |
| Tyler Higbee |
63.90% |
61.90% |
14.2 (6) |
3.5 |
| Colby Parkinson |
84.70% |
61.90% |
8.9 (7) |
1.38 |
| Davis Allen |
72.20% |
45.20% |
19.0 (1) |
0 |
Data Courtesy of FantasyPoints
A few weeks ago in Carolina, Parkinson went for 27 yards, and Higbee is more of a downfield presence than Parkinson. Terrance Ferguson is banged up, and Davis Allen isn’t a serious threat in the passing attack. Carolina allowed the eighth-most yards to tight ends this season, and Higbee went for 37 or more yards in all three games in which he played at least 64% of the offensive snaps.
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Do what you will with Pro Football Focus grades, but there’s no better tight end against zone coverage than Kincaid, per PFF’s receiving grade, and Jacksonville plays zone at one of the league’s highest rates. Injuries derailed the latter part of his 2025 season, but this is a good matchup for Kincaid, and this game seems like the best offensive environment in the entire Wild Card round. During the regular season, Jacksonville allowed the sixth-most receptions to tight ends on the season, and against zone coverage, Kincaid posted a 90.6% catch rate, 3.91 yards per route run, and a 150.0 passer rating when targeted, per FantasyPoints Data.
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Nico Collins OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards
It’s playoff time, and Playoff Nico is set to emerge. He’s averaged 91.8 receiving yards per game across his four career playoff games, and he’s been a monster in the Wild Card round, averaging 109 yards per game across two Wild Card round games. The Steelers play a good bit of man coverage, and Collins has crushed man coverage in 2025, to the tune of 2.60 yards per route run on the season, per FantasyPoints Data. He closed out the 2025 campaign by averaging over 20 yards per reception over his final three games, and Collins is the unquestioned alpha in the Houston passing attack.
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Bryce Young OVER 16.5 Rushing Yards
Colby has been pushing Bryce Young rushing yards and WINNING for a number of weeks near the end of the year. Last week, Young was pressured as much in a tight ball game. However, this week, Young is playing the Rams again. In Week 13, Young had 23 yards on five rushes. The Rams lost that game and will be eager to pressure Young again and force him out of the pocket. Therefore, I feel very confident in the over in this game for Bryce.
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Trevor Lawrence UNDER 239.5 Passing Yards
Lawrence was red-hot in the second half of the season from a fantasy perspective. However, he has never played against a Top 10 defense since Week 11. That week, he went against the Chargers, who held him to 153 passing yards. This week, he goes to Buffalo and plays the #1 defense, which gives up the fewest passing yards per game (170). The Bills are also #1 in fewest yards per attempt (5.7). Lawrence faced four top-10 pass defenses in 2025 and threw for 153, 158, 221, and 222 yards, respectively. The under seems the right choice here this week.
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Blake Corum OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards & Chuba Hubbard OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards
The last time these two teams played it was quite the run-fest on both sides of the ball. Both teams combined for over 130 rushing yards per team. As we look forward to this week’s Wild Card game, you have to believe the teams will take a similar approach, especially with the heavy rains expected. I’m taking the #2 backs on each team. In Week 13, Corum rushed 81 yards on seven carries, while Hubbard rushed for 83 yards on 13 carries. Based on the low bar set for this week’s game, I’m going to jump on both overs.
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