Football
NFL Offseason: 3 YR Consistency for QBs
Welcome Back! Big Guy Fantasy Sports is thrilled to bring you another year of the best in NFL consistency rankings and championship fantasy football strategy.
NFL Fantasy Football Offseason is picking up. With the NFL Draft fast approaching, let’s review the past 3 seasons for fantasy points and consistency.
Thanks for joining me! I’m focusing on consistency in the past 3 seasons for the main fantasy positions: QB, RB, WR, and TE. Today, I’m looking at QBs and will continue to the other positions throughout the series (weekly). Consistent production will help you win your matchups and your league. This series will help give you the edge on who’s doing it the most and year over year.
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Fantasy Football Under the Radar (with consistency) – 4/6/2026
Tier 1, +70% Clutch Rates NFL Fantasy Football Offseason.
1.) Josh Allen – 73.47% (36/49)
2.) Jalen Hurts – 72.92% (35/48)
3.) Drake Maye – 72.41% (21/29)
4.) Jaxson Dart – 71.43% (10/14)
5.) Jayden Daniels – 70.83% (17/24)
Not too much of a surprise here, the top QB in the league in terms of consistency the past 3 seasons is fantasy king Josh Allen at 73.47%. Allen is the only QB who’s been over 70% in 2 of the last 3 seasons (he missed last year at 69%). I was a bit surprised at number 2, as I’ve seen a lot of different takes on Jalen Hurts. He has 1 season over 70%, in 2023 at 82%, when he led the league in CR. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s just missed with a 69% last season and 67% in 2024.
The other 3 QBs in this tier are all young guys who don’t have full 3-season sample sizes. Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels are both looking to make full comebacks from injuries that derailed their seasons last year. Drake Maye had a Super Bowl run come up short, but he will come into this season as the 2025 Champion in CR with an 82% mark.
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(QBs w/ 80%+ CR AVG Overall QB Finish: 2.25)
A couple of interesting notes from this tier. One, 4 of the 5 players in tier 1 have a name that starts with a J. Okay, that’s mildly interesting, but has no implications other than just hmm…my biggest takeaway here is that they are all “Konami Codes” at QB, which I highlighted last August in my QB article here.
About the only thing that could derail you with these QBs is health. If these guys stay healthy, they’ll all be top-10 QBs from a consistency standpoint, and be some of the highest-rostered QBs in fantasy championship teams come the end of next season.
Tier 2, 60%-69.99% Clutch Rates
6.) Lamar Jackson – 67.40% (31/46)
7.) Baker Mayfield – 66.67% (34/51)
8.) Malik Willis – 66.67% (2/3)
9.) Brock Purdy – 65% (26/40)
10.) Joe Burrow – 60% (21/35)
OUTLIER!!!! Or is it? Malik Willis has had 3 starts for the Green Bay Packers in the last 2 seasons. He had clutch games in 2 of those. This offseason, he signed with the Miami Dolphins and looks like he’s going to be their starter. He’s a “Konami Code” QB, and just like Justin Fields before him, he could be a huge reward for those who take the gamble.
Everyone else in this tier is either a “Mobile Threat” (15+ yards rushing per game) or “Konami Code” (Jackson) as well. The 4 QBs in the “Mobile Threat” category are all guys who have at least a good shot of being near the top of the league in TD passes as well. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have led the league, while Baker Mayfield and Brock Purdy have 3rd place finishes since 2023.
(QBs w/ 70%+ CR AVG Overall QB Finish: 6.14)
A few changes have taken place in this tier: the WR1 for Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, is now the WR1 for Brock Purdy. The Ravens lost Isaiah Likely in free agency and have a new Head Coach. The aforementioned Willis is now the starter for the Dolphins. None of the changes should affect these guys too much, and I expect good-to-great numbers from them this upcoming season.
These are target starters for fantasy football managers. Jackson and Burrow will probably be drafted relatively higher than the others, but the fantasy potential of these 5 guys is undeniable.
Tier 3, 59.99% or less Clutch Rate (The Rest)
A lot of names fall in this category, as it’s anyone you haven’t seen listed above. That’s right, Patrick Mahomes (55%), Matthew Stafford (45.83%), Dak Prescott (57.14%), Justin Herbert (47.83%), and Jared Goff (49.02%). Those are a handful of names that, if you’ve drafted over the past few seasons, you’re probably not happy with your finish in the fantasy football standings.
There are obviously outliers to this, but Stafford led the league in touchdown passes (46) last season. He played 17 games and finished as QB2 overall. He was a respectable 65% Clutch. In 2024, he played in 16 games, but he threw only 20 touchdown passes. The result was a 31% CR. 2023, 15 games played, 24 touchdown passes, and a 40% CR. Great pick in 2025, wasted pick both of the previous 2 seasons.
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Don’t forget, you can see how consistent your players are in your league with your scoring method by checking the Consistency Report.
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(2026 Notable QBs w/ new teams: Malik Willis MIA, Kyler Murray MIN, Kirk Cousins/Fernando Mendoza LVR, Geno Smith NYJ)
Leading the league in touchdown passes is amazing, but it can’t be relied on. As a secondary stat for your “Mobile Threats,” it’s a great positive, but for those like Stafford who fall into the “Pocket Statues,” you can’t trust it. Did you know there hasn’t been a QB repeat leading the league in touchdown passes back-to-back seasons since 2012? Yeah, Drew Brees was the last QB to do that. Only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes have more than 1 season leading the league in touchdown passes since then; they all have 2.
I do still like Caleb Williams (47.1%) and Bo Nix (52.94%) from this group (both are “Konami Codes”). Each player is an ascending talent, and they could be in for breakouts this upcoming season. Mahomes ran more last year and rebounded (64%), but his name is so pricey. Herbert does have Mike McDaniel as his new OC, color me intrigued by that. I’ll never say I’m avoiding the rest completely, as almost every player is good at the right price, but I’m going to do my best to stay out of this tier everywhere I can.
Again, welcome back, everyone! I hope you’ll follow along all offseason and into the 2026 season for some insights on consistency. Want more? Follow me on X: @JKeasy. Remember, it’s all about consistency, and Big Guy Fantasy Sports is the best in the business!
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