Mahomes Vs. Mayfield: NFL Fantasy Consistency Tiebreakers

Ron Rigney examines two NFL QBs with similar ADPs to identify where the real consistency lies.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield!

Tale of the Tape…

With the 2025 draft season starting to heat up, our message here at Big Guy Fantasy Sports is the same. If your players aren’t scoring consistently each week, you won’t win. It’s a proven method. That said, of the two players who are the focus of this article, Patrick Mahomes is the flashier name and is a future Hall of Fame lock.

Unless you’re a Chiefs fan, you don’t care about that. You want to win fantasy championships. Can you do that with Mahomes? Let’s see what the numbers say.

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Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is going just a few spots ahead of Mayfield in drafts, and that’s fueled by those wanting to buy low into a bounceback to those consistent ways we have been used to from Mahomes. After finishing as our second most consistent QB in 2022, and seventh in 2023, the drop to 31% in 2024 was a shocker. Past trends show why there could be a bounceback ahead. However, I’m not buying it!

I expect Mahomes’ consistency to improve a bit, but I’m afraid he settles into the “better real-life QB than fantasy QB” group. Mahomes’ ability as a downfield passer has declined since 2022. I won’t get into the metrics, but the Chiefs are on TV enough to see the decline. It makes for entertaining football to watch, but it’s nerve-wracking if Mahomes is your fantasy starter.

According to PFF.com, the 2025 Chiefs offensive line could be one of the worst they’ve suited up in recent memory. With questions at left tackle, as well as trading Joe Thuney, this unit could impact the run game as well as Mahomes’ passing stats. The WR room should be much improved, as Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice will be there alongside Xavier Worthy to begin the season.

As of now, there’s no suspension looming for Rice, but his legal issues aren’t quite solved just yet. Lastly, while Travis Kelce looks like a solid value at TE, he’s slowing down a bit. He remains Mahomes’ security blanket, but his ability to find open spots isn’t what it once was.

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MayField

Looking at Baker Mayfield since 2022, his career is trending upward. He finally found a home in Tampa Bay and has solidified himself as a solid starting QB. From just 38% consistency in 2022, his first year in Tampa, we saw him improve to 58%. In 2024, he was a different player. 82% consistency and third in total points at the position. His 4500 yards and 41 touchdowns were both easily career highs.

Heading into 2025, there’s a lot to like about Mayfield. Let’s start with that ADP of 61. If he can finish close to last year’s numbers, there is plenty of value here. The Bucs have a middle-of-the-road schedule as far as toughness for 2025. With the likes of Mike Evans, 2025 first-rounder Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and the returning Chris Godwin, the WR room is one of the best in the league.

Add in emerging TE Cade Otton, who stepped in admirably last season after the Godwin injury, and it makes for a stocked cupboard. Tampa finally has a consistent RB in Bucky Irving (71% CR in 2024) lining up behind Mayfield and a talented offensive line. PFF.com ranks the Tampa Bay offensive line as one of the top units in the league, led by pass-blocking machine LT Tristan Wirfs.

When choosing between these two in the Round 6-7 range, it’s an easy choice for me. Mayfield is my guy every time. Do I understand the hope in a Mahomes bounceback? Absolutely.

However, I’m going with the guy who’s trending upward in Mayfield. There’s simply so much more to like about his situation in Tampa Bay as opposed to Mahomes’ in KC.

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