Football
2025 Fantasy Football Profile: A.J. Brown – Most Undervalued WR1
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In 2025, A.J. Brown feels like the most undervalued wide receiver in fantasy football drafts!
The reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles deployed a run-heavy approach in 2025 behind 2026 Madden cover boy Saquon Barkley. The reduced pass attempts resulted in wide receiver A.J. Brown finishing outside the top 12 players at his position for the first time since being traded to the Eagles. However, 2025 will be a different story, as A.J. Brown feels like the most undervalued fantasy football sleeper wide receiver! He’s the top dog in the passing attack. If he slips past his fantasy football ADP because he “doesn’t have the same upside” as other receivers around him. Then take the value and run!
As Consistent as The Come
Yes, Brown missed some time due to an injury last season, but before that, he played 17 games in each of the two seasons prior. He also has a 78.7% clutch rate during his tenure in the City of Brotherly Love. Despite finishing as the WR19 last season, he was 85% consistent, registering a clutch game in 11 of 13 contests. Furthermore, of the top 20 wideouts from last season in PPR scoring, Brown was one of just six to have a clutch rate of at least 80 percent. The others were as follows: Ja’Marr Chase (94%), Justin Jefferson (82%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (82%), Malik Nabers (87%), and CeeDee Lamb (80%).
Consistency is King
Did you see Bob Lung’s recent article on advanced analytics for wide receivers? If not, check it out here, and you’ll see that Brown was the WR8 in terms of xConsistency! This metric helps distinguish players with similar consistency but different outputs in terms of total points scored. Brown’s xConsistency was higher than Lamb, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Garrett Wilson!
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Elite Usage Fantasy Football Sleeper
Despite a “down” year for Brown, he managed to compile 1,079 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 67 receptions (97 targets) across 13 games played. Per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, A.J. Brown ranked first in air yards share, second in target share, second in first read rate, and third in fantasy points per route run. This is as elite as it gets in terms of usage!
The numbers under the hood are what you want to see from an elite, alpha wide receiver, but total pass volume from the Philadelphia offense reduced Brown’s stat line. The Eagles’ 448 pass attempts as a team in 2024 were the eighth-lowest in a single season dating back to 2015, per StatMuse! Unfortunately for Brown, he’s no stranger to this, as Brown’s former team, the Tennessee Titans, appear twice on this list (9th-fewest in 2019, 12th-fewest in 2022). He’s proven that he can post WR1 seasons without elite pass volume, but we could see the Eagles throw more in 2025.
Tougher Schedule = More A.J. Brown Fantasy Football
The Eagles had the 12th-easiest schedule last season but the 4th-toughest this season. When examining their schedule, outside of their division, they must play the AFC West (Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders) and the NFC North (Vikings, Lions, Bears, and Packers), both of which are expected to be strong divisions this season. By finishing in first place, they draw the division winners from the AFC East, NFC West, and NFC South, which happen to be the Bills, Rams, and Bucs, respectively. Ten of the team’s 17 games this year are against playoff teams from 2024, so they will face a significant challenge.
The Eagles ran the ball at the highest clip in the league (52%) last season, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, but in the second half, particularly, they ran the ball at a 60.4% clip! Closer games could be in store for Philly in 2025, and maybe even playing from behind a bit, both of which will elevate the passing volume for this offense. I wouldn’t wish this on him, and I’m knocking on wood as I say this, but if anything were to happen to Saquon Barkley in 2025, they’ll lean more on Jalen Hurts’ arm as opposed to Will Shipley or AJ Dillon.
Final Fantasy Football Outlook
Per FantasyPros ADP, A.J. Brown is the WR10 off the board. It feels like his “down” year in 2024 has knocked some of the shine off the soon-to-be 28-year-old wideout. The Eagles are unlikely to become a pass-heavy team overnight. However, a more demanding schedule in 2025 and an emphasis on stopping the run game should lead to an increased pass volume compared to 2024. Brown’s 7.5 targets per game last year play out to 126.8 targets over a full 17-game season. He went for 1,400+ yards in 2022 and 2023 with the Eagles when handling 125+ targets.
Say what you want about Brown’s 2024 season. But the numbers under the hood are elite. He managed to finish as a top-8 WR in just under half of the weeks he played last season. He’s as consistent as they come at the position, and he feels a bit undervalued right now in fantasy football drafts.
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