NFL Offseason: 3 YR Consistency for RBs

NFL Fantasy Football Offseason is picking up. With the NFL Draft fast approaching, let’s review the past 3 seasons for fantasy points and consistency.

Thanks for joining me! I’m focusing on consistency in the past 3 seasons for the main fantasy positions: QB, RB, WR, and TE. Today, I’m looking at RBs and will continue to the other positions throughout the series (weekly). You can find last week’s QB article here. Consistent production will help you win your matchups and your league. This series will help give you the edge on who’s doing it the most and year over year.

If you need more consistency, get a head start on everyone else and sign up today for full access to all the tools available at BGFS! Let’s dig in and see if there are some surprises over the past three seasons.

Fantasy Football Under the Radar (with consistency) – 4/13/2026

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Tier 1, +80% Clutch Rates NFL Fantasy Football Offseason.

1.) Christian McCaffrey– 91.90% (34/37)

2.) Bijan Robinson – 88.24% (45/51) 

3.) Kyren Williams – 86.67% (39/45)

4.) Jonathan Taylor – 82.93% (34/41)

5.) De’Von Achane – 81.81% (36/44)

This tier is obviously elite and usually carries the ADP #1 for fantasy drafts. Christian McCaffrey is a cheat code when he’s healthy, and Bijan Robinson appears to be the “Prince who was promised” at running back. Tier 1 had 4 of the top 5 fantasy finishers overall at the running back position, and Kyren Williams finished 9th overall for RBs.

This tier includes some of the elite pass-catching RBs; McCaffrey and Robinson finished 1st and 2nd in RB receptions with 102 and 79. Williams had the fewest receptions in this tier at 36, but was still 15th overall for RBs in catches. 4 RBs in this tier finished top 10 in amount of carries in 2025, and the lowest was De’Von Achane, who finished 15th.

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(RBs w/ 80%+ CR AVG Overall RB Finish: 4.52)

Talent is a big deal, as mentioned, these guys are elite, but another huge factor is volume. We’ve all heard it: “Volume is king” at RB in fantasy football. A bigger surprise for me on this list is the omission of a couple of big names that I would’ve expected to be here, but I’ll touch on that in the next tiers as they show up.

Very similar to the QB position, this top tier for RBs should all be in line for another big season. Our biggest fear with these guys is HEALTH. McCaffrey is another level when he’s playing, but he only managed 4 games in 2024. At a violent position that’s known to have a short shelf-life, all fantasy gamers need to keep an eye on injury reports constantly. Achane goes into the 2026 season as the RB CR Champion, as he was 100% in 16 games this past year.

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Tier 2, 70%-79.99% Clutch Rates

6.) Jahmyr Gibbs – 79.59% (39/49)

7.) Derrick Henry – 78.43% (40/51)

8.) Josh Jacobs – 77.78% (35/45)

9.) Alvin Kamara – 76.34% (29/38)

10.) Cam Skattebo – 75% (6/8)

11.) James Cook – 71.43% (35/49)

12.) Bucky Irving – 70.37% (19/27)

Nitpicky, yes, but seeing Jahmyr Gibbs in this tier despite just barely missing out on Tier 1 is surprising. He’s consistently talked about as one of the top 3 RBs and is drafted accordingly. His 2023 season with a 60% CR hurt him, but he’s been very good since then, including a perfect 17-for-17 in 2024. With David Montgomery moving on to the Houston Texans, the sky is the ceiling this season for Gibbs (he’s already finished RB3 and RB1 overall the last 2 seasons).

After Gibbs in Tier 2, we see 3 RBs who might be in their back 9. Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara all have a ton of mileage and have been rocky over the last 3 seasons. Henry and Jacobs have 1 season apiece over the past 3 years with 80%+ CR. Kamara looked like a shell of his former self, posting a 45% CR last season (93% and 85% the previous 2 seasons). These guys are very capable of RB1 status, but tread carefully.

(RBs w/ 70%+ CR AVG Overall RB Finish: 8.51)

I like all 3 of the remaining RBs in this tier. My love for James Cook is well documented if you’ve followed me on X or read my articles here on Big Guy Fantasy Sports. All he’s done is lead the league in rushing touchdowns in 2024 with 16, then followed that up with leading the league in rushing yards in 2025 with 1,621. I’ll have him everywhere I can again this season.

Cam Skattebo got hurt last year, and there’s talk that the New York Giants may select an RB in the upcoming draft. Unless he’s more hurt than we suspect, I think he’ll be the leader for a team that wants to run a ton. With Rachaad White leaving town, I think Bucky Irving rebounds nicely and should be in RB1 talks as we head into the 2026 season.

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Tier 3, 69.99% or less Clutch Rate (The Rest)

With 12 RBs in the top 2 tiers, it gets a little muddy beyond that. Again, we’ve got some big names and pricey players that fall below our threshold for what we’d like to see. With RBs, we targeted those with a 70% or higher CR, which left out some big names. Probably the most shocking is Saquon Barkley. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s at 69.57%, so very close and similar to Gibbs falling out of Tier 1.

I’m not overly concerned with Barkley, but his price is always high. His 2024 was epic and had him as the RB2 overall, but can we expect any consistency with him and, for that matter, this Philadelphia Eagles’ offense? An RB13 and RB14 finish overall in 2023, and 2025 aren’t what you paid for at the draft.

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Don’t forget, you can see how consistent your players are in your league with your scoring method by checking the Consistency Report.

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(2026 Notable RBs w/ new teams: David Montgomery HOU, Kenneth Walker III KC, Travis Etienne Jr. NO, Rachaad White WAS)

Some other very notable names that didn’t “make the cut” were James Conner at 68.75%, Aaron Jones at 67.5%, David Montgomery at 66.67%, and Breece Hall at 63.27%. Out of that group, the age for Conner, Jones, and Montgomery scares me, but Montgomery may be a lead back with Houston this upcoming season. That could bring him back closer to his 86% CR from 2023 and 2024. Hall needs the Jets not to be dysfunctional, which has seemed a tall task as of late. Hovering around the 60% mark, I’m keeping a close eye on Chase Brown, Omarion Hampton, and Ashton Jeanty in this tier as well.

Super Bowl MVP and now ultra-hyped RB, Kenneth Walker III, shows up in this tier. He’s got a 60.47% CR over the last 3 seasons, with last year being his worst at 47%. Now with the Chiefs, he’s getting steamed up as a potential RB1 who could challenge the top spot. Bellcow usage could make his RB1 price worth it. Travis Etienne Jr. is now in New Orleans. It’ll be interesting to see how they use him with Kamara. Etienne has 2 top-10 finishes overall in the last 3 seasons (RB10 in 2025 and RB3 in 2023) with a 61.22% CR. In the end, these guys make or break fantasy seasons. Hitting on the RB2/RB3s that are closer to RB1s defines championship teams.

10 days until the NFL Draft! I hope you’ll continue to follow along all offseason and into the 2026 season for some insights on consistency. Want more? Follow me on X: @JKeasy. Remember, it’s all about consistency, and Big Guy Fantasy Sports is the best in the business!

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