Football
Football Rookie 1st Round Running Backs: Smash or Pass?
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Fantasy Football: 1st Round Rookie Running Backs, SMASH or PASS?
Every year after the NFL draft concludes, fantasy managers are extremely high on the new, shiny toys. That’s no exception for the 1st round rookie running backs. Are you ready to dive into fantasy football rookie running backs and discover the next generation of superstars?
I take a closer look at the up-and-coming rookies who’ll make an impact on your fantasy teams. Is the juice worth the squeeze for 1st round rookie running backs in fantasy football? I went back 10 years to 2015 and pulled results for all 1st round running backs drafted in the NFL. Below you’ll see what I found. Also, if you haven’t already, sign up today to get full access to all of the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football Rookie Running Backs – 6/9/2025 Fantasy Football: Smash or Pass?
Rookie Running Backs in the 1st Round
This year was considered a deep draft for the running back position. Overall, there were 25 running backs drafted, 6 were drafted in the first three rounds, and 12 were drafted in the first four rounds of this past draft. The top running back pick was Ashton Jeanty, the 6th overall pick.
Jeanty and Omarion Hampton (22nd overall) were the only two 1st round running back picks this year. Since 2015, 15 total running backs have been drafted in the 1st round (including the 2 this year). Doesn’t seem like a lot, so we should be able to come up with a concrete determination on where they should go in drafts. Let’s see.
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(10 of the 13 Running Backs drafted in the 1st Round have eclipsed 1,000 yards from scrimmage in their 1st year.)
For fantasy success, we need opportunity, and that’s almost guaranteed if a team is willing to spend a 1st round pick on a running back. Along with Jeanty and Hampton, here are the other 13 running backs selected in the 1st round (Year – Overall Pick – Player: PPR Fantasy Points Per Game/Fantasy PPG Position Finish):
2015 – Todd Gurley – 10th: 16.03/RB5
2015 – Melvin Gordon III – 15th: 8.45/RB53
2016 – Ezekiel Elliott – 4th: 20.63/RB2
2017 – Leonard Fournette – 4th: 17.71/RB8
2017 – Christian McCaffrey – 8th: 14.29/RB15
2018 – Saquon Barkley – 2nd: 24.11/RB2
2018 – Rashaad Penny – 27th: 5.03/RB58
(Every running back drafted in the 1st round since 2015 started at least 8 games, other than Rashaad Penny, who had 0 starts his rookie year.)
2018 – Sony Michel – 31st: 10.70/RB25
2019 – Josh Jacobs – 24th: 14.74/RB14
2020 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 32nd: 13.54/RB22
2021 – Najee Harris – 24th: 17.69/RB4
2021* – Travis Etienne – 25th: 12.06/RB16
(* Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie season; the above totals are from 2022 when he first played.)
2023 – Bijan Robinson – 8th: 14.49/RB12
Before this season, Bijan Robinson was the last running back selected in the 1st round. It’s been since 2021 that we’ve seen two running backs drafted in the first round. So, looking at the finishes, where do you pick the two running backs drafted this year?
Ashton Jeanty: Smash Or Pass?
Currently, Jeanty is listed as RB5 (9.5 overall) in the rankings. Four out of thirteen (30.77%) running backs drafted in the 1st round were RB5 or higher for their rookie years. The overall average finish for 1st round rookie running backs comes in just a bit above RB18.
(6 running backs have been selected in the top 10 since 2015, including Ashton Jeanty this year.)
That average bumps up to RB6 if we only include the top 10 running back picks (closer to Jeanty’s 6th overall). It still tells us that Jeanty might be a bit overranked right now. Two of Jeanty’s closest comparisons are Robinson and Barkley, who finished RB12 and RB2.
Hampton is ranked as the RB21 (47.1 overall). Being the 22nd overall pick in the NFL draft matches up closely with where he’s being drafted in fantasy drafts (the RB18 finish mentioned above). However, if we focus on picks around his spot (20- 25th overall), the fantasy finish for those is RB11.
Historically speaking, the fantasy football community has Jeanty a bit too high while undervaluing Hampton. I’d be thrilled in a redraft league if Jeanty fell to me in the early to mid-2nd round, as historically he should finish no worse than a high-end RB2. The data tells us we should probably be smashing the pick button for Hampton just a little after that (the late 2nd to early 3rd round).
Rookie running backs aren’t typically drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. When they are, it’s safe to draft them pretty highly as they perform at a strong scale historically. The biggest outlier was Gordon III, who finished as RB53 despite being drafted 15th overall in the NFL draft. His wild zero touchdowns scored had the majority to do with the terrible finish (most consider that a complete anomaly).
However, there appears to be a cutoff line; the running backs selected after the 25th pick have their fantasy finish fall dramatically. Running backs drafted with picks 26 through 32 in the 1st round had an average fantasy finish of RB35. That’s still playable, but be sure to draft accordingly.
Verdict: SMASH!
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