Fantasy Football: Rookies versus Consistency – 2023

Bob Lung presents the facts and figures on why drafting Rookies can be very RISKY in the early rounds! You can follow or respond to him on Twitter at @bob_lung.

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The one question that I get asked every year is “Why don’t you include rookies in your consistency analysis?” My answer has always been “They’re too inconsistent.” Or “College talent doesn’t always equate to NFL talent.” That normally leads to “Well, what about Odell Beckham, Jr. or Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley?” Good point.

So, I decided to back up my theory with facts. I accumulated the number of draft choices at the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) since 2010. For the past 13 years, there have been 474 of these players drafted in the first four rounds. I did only the first four rounds since that’s where most of the NFL starters come from. Yes, there are the Tom Brady’s of the world that are drafted in Round 6, but those are few and far between.

The breakdown of the positions and rounds are as follows:

Next, I accumulated all the rookies who exceeded a 60% Clutch Rating (how consistent the player was during the season) and played more than 10 games in their rookie season since 2010.

As you can see above, since 2010, only 49 TOTAL rookies have ever exceeded a 60% Clutch Rating in their rookie season. Around 78% of those players had a Clutch Rating between 60-79%, while only 22% were over an 80% Clutch Rating. In summary, it’s even rarer that a rookie has a Clutch Rating over 90% in his first season. Let’s look at the breakdown by position.

The chart shows less than one percent of all position players drafted in the past 12 years have earned a Clutch Rating over 90% in their rookie season. The other Clutch Rating categories don’t show much success either with success ratings between 1.48% and 2.95%. In total, approximately 10.34% of all rookies since 2010 have earned over a 60% Clutch Rating.

If you’re wondering who were these 49 rookies, who earned over a 60% Clutch Rating in their first season, then you’re in luck! We’ll start with the quarterbacks. Remember, only seven quarterbacks out of the 77 (9.09%), drafted in the first four rounds since 2010, have earned over 60% Clutch Rating. Robert Griffin and Marcus Mariota both earned a 67% Clutch Rating while Cam Newton had an extraordinary 81% in 2011, Dak Prescott earned a 75% Clutch Rating in 2016, Baker Mayfield with a 64% rating in 2018, and Kyler Murray sucked in with a 63% rating in 2019. Justin Herbert earned a 67% Clutch Rating in 2020. There have been none since Herbert. Last year, there were five quarterbacks drafted and none of them were even close as the best rookie was Bailey Zappe at 25%.

The running backs lead all positions with 20 rookies having exceeded the 60% Clutch Rating. This equated to 15.38% of all the drafted running backs since 2010. Of those 20, only three exceeded a 90% Clutch Rating and they were LeVeon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley.

The running backs have the best percentage of consistent performers in their rookie season at 15.13%. The wide receivers have 19 players over 60% consistency for 10.38% in their first year, but they have had 53 more players drafted as well.

There were 11 running backs drafted in the first four rounds last year, but the only two backs who earned over a 60% Clutch Rating were Kenneth Walker – Seattle (73%) and Dameon Pierce – Hou (69%). Pierce was a little more surprising as he was a fourth round pick.

The wide receivers are just one player behind the running backs in total rookies over 60% with 19. This equated to 10.38% of all the drafted wide receivers since 2010. However, the biggest difference between the wide receivers and running backs is the success AFTER their rookie season. Almost all these receivers have had continued success after their consistent rookie season and remain as some of the top receivers heading into 2023. Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson are perfect examples of that after their excellent rookie seasons in 2019 and 2020. In 2021, it was Ja’Marr Chase who was 76% consistent and still one of the receivers in the league.

The 2022 season was a big year for first-round wide receivers picked in the NFL draft! There were 13 receivers picked in the first two rounds! However, that didn’t mean there were necessarily more rookie receivers over 60% consistent in 2022. There is only ONE out of the 20 total receivers drafted in the first four rounds that earned the elusive 60% consistency. The only receiver to accomplish that feat was New Orleans Saints’ Chris Olave with a 73% consistency rating.

No position is more difficult to earn a 60% Clutch Rate in their rookie year than tight ends. Since 2010, only Jordan Reed and Evan Engram have earned over a 60% Clutch Rating in their rookie season. Well, at least until 2021, when Kyle Pitts squeaked in with a 64% Clutch Rating. This is only the third one in 12 years and the first one since 2017! There were 10 tight ends drafted last season and none of them were close to the 60% threshold. The best was Greg Dulcich at 50%.

The facts show what many Fantasy owners already know, drafting rookies early is risky. 2022 was a drop-off from 2021 with only three rookies over the coveted 60% Clutch Rating. Your chance of drafting a rookie who earns over an 80% Clutch Rating is still less than 3%. Let’s be honest, you want the players that you draft in the first two rounds of your Fantasy draft to have an 80% Clutch Rating or higher. If you want to take a chance on a rookie in later rounds, that’s fair, but remember that rookies have a 90% “failure” rate in their first season. So, who would you draft? A proven veteran or a rookie? The facts above have already answered the question for you.