Joe Mixon: Your 2025 Fantasy Football RB Draft Steal Of The Year?

Despite missing games and a bad O-line, Texans’ Joe Mixon offers top NFL fantasy football value in 2025.

Despite missing a couple of games and running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon is poised for a better 2025 season and looks like one of the best values at the running back position in fantasy football drafts. With a new offensive scheme that should play up the offensive line, Mixon becomes a key fantasy football draft target for the upcoming season. Let’s dive into why Mixon is set to outperform fantasy football draft rankings and be a key piece of your 2025 fantasy football lineups.

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2024 Season in Review

Joe Mixon had a successful first season with the Houston Texans, recording over 1,300 total yards and posting double-digit touchdowns. Overall, he was the RB16 on the season with a clutch rate of 64 percent. All in all, that’s not too shabby when you consider the fact that his offensive line had the eighth-best run blocking grade per Pro Football Focus. Furthermore, on a per-game basis, he ranked 10th in fantasy points per game and fourth in expected fantasy points per game, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite.

Consistency is King

If you want consistency year over year, look no further than Mixon. Consider the below when prepping for your fantasy football drafts this summer:

• He’s posted a 63 percent or better clutch rate in each of the last four seasons.
• Over the last three years, he’s 75.6 percent consistent (34 of 45).
• Over the last four seasons, his clutch rate sits at 72.1 percent (44 of 61).

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Lack of Competition

Dameon Pierce? Woody Marks? For the second straight year as a Houston Texan, there is no considerable threat to Mixon’s role. Marks could see some work in the passing game, but not enough to ding Mixon’s PPR value. Last season, Mixon handled 87.5 percent of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line, which was second-best in the NFL amongst running backs with at least 100 carries, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite.

Also, consider this: Mixon missed Weeks 3-5, and only played a handful of snaps in Week 18. If you remove those four games, look at this insane usage for Mixon:

• 66.2% snap share
• 71.2% of the team’s rushing attempts
• 11.4% target share

Removing Week 18 across the NFL, Mixon’s numbers above would rank 10th, 3rd, and 10th amongst running backs. Health willing, Mixon is set up for a monster role, and if Houston doesn’t sign a lingering free agent, a la JK Dobbins, Mixon will be amongst the league leaders in carries.

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Projecting Mixon in the New Offensive Scheme

Here’s where the magic happens when it comes to Mixon. Prior to coming to Houston, he was better on man/gap concept runs than zone runs, and in 2024, Bobby Slowik stuck to his scheme, and nearly two-thirds of his runs in 2024 were zone concept runs. On those carries, Mixon posted 3.71 YPC, per Fantasy Points Data Suite, but he posted a significantly better 5.05 YPC on man/gap concept runs. However, those types of runs only occurred one-third of the time.

If you look at new Offensive Coordinator Nick Caley’s past, he comes most recently from the Los Angeles Rams, where over half of Kyren Williams’ carries the past two seasons were man/gap concept runs. Prior to his time in L.A., he was in New England, and in 2021 and 2022, the Patriots ran man/gap concept runs at the first and fourth-highest rates, respectively.

Caley has never called plays before, so we may not fully know what we are getting into, but based on where he has been the past couple of seasons, I’d expect more man/gap concept runs for Mixon, which is where he has thrived the last few seasons.

Final Fantasy Football Outlook

At the end of the day, Mixon, as the 17th running back off the board, is too cheap for his expected workload in 2025, and a more effective offensive line should be better for Mixon’s fantasy output. Houston should have one of the top defenses in the league, so games will be close, which keeps Mixon on the field. He’ll need to stay healthy to give us a top-10 season at the position, but there’s a clear path for Mixon to be a top-10 fantasy running back in 2025. Don’t leave your fantasy football drafts without the Houston running back.

Got Your Big Guy Football Consistency Clutch Report Yet? Joe Mixon Fantasy