Football
J.K. Dobbins is a huge ADP riser this week in Fantasy Football!
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The fluctuating Average Draft Position for Fantasy Football is often affected by player movement. This week, our biggest riser is just that. Read on for insight into key players with big ADP movement this week.
Mandatory minicamps are taking place, and we’re now 79 days away (as of 6/17) from the NFL regular season kickoff. Below, I’m digging into ADP movers and
ADP (average draft position) is the key to winning your fantasy leagues. Getting round to round or auction value is huge, and knowing the public perception gives you an edge.
Keep up with me as I review some of the top movers at each fantasy position weekly. Also, if you haven’t already, sign up today to get full access to all of the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football ADP Updates (with consistency) – 6/17/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP
RB J.K. Dobbins DEN – ADP
This one shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with the recent news that J.K. Dobbins was signing with the Denver Broncos. “Good luck to [the Chargers]. I’m a Bronco now” is a recent quote from Dobbins. The last time we saw a prolific running back switch teams in the division, we were blessed with Saquon Barkley dominating in the NFC East last year.
Signing Dobbins took some of the shine off of rookie R.J. Harvey (2nd-round pick, 60th overall), as it should have. This past season, Dobbins ran for over 900 yards and had 32 receptions (a career high) with the Los Angeles Chargers. Dobbins is a former 2nd-round pick (55th overall), and the biggest knock on him is missing time due to injury.
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(ADP +21.2, pick 147.8, Rostered 40.4% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Dobbins played 13 games last year, the second highest total of his career (only lower than the 15 he played in his rookie season). The Broncos are taking a gamble that he’ll be healthy in a rotational backfield with Harvey, and fantasy managers have taken notice. He finished the 2024 season as the RB18 in points per game at 14.8. That put him just ahead of Bucky Irving (14.4), who is being selected as the 22.2 overall pick in fantasy drafts. That’s 125 picks before Dobbins.
There is a risk of injury, but Dobbins looks healthy and is gathering praise in Denver minicamp. Payton has a history of utilizing two running backs, and the current situation could be a Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara situation with Dobbins/Harvey. With Dobbins healthy, he’ll smash his current ADP and continue to rise as long as he stays healthy. I’ll take him as an RB2 who’s going at an RB5 price.
RB Nick Chubb HOU Fantasy ADP
Here’s another guy who signed recently and is seeing his ADP spike because of it. Nick Chubb just joined the Houston Texans, and fantasy managers took notice. A few weeks ago, a training video went viral where Chubb looked to be in peak condition. He’s already a legend, so it’s not surprising his ADP is climbing this week (up 8.6 spots).
Just like Dobbins above, the main issue with Chubb is about health. I love Chubb’s quote from last week after arriving in Houston, “I wondered why they wanted me here. Then I came here and saw a bunch of guys who like to work and not talk, and I realized I’m a perfect fit.” That’s Chubb, a true workhorse running back in every sense. He averaged 265.8 touches per season before getting injured in 2023.
(ADP +8.6, pick 158.6, Rostered 17.2% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Just like Dobbins, Chubb will face competition in the running back room. Chubb’s main competition is Joe Mixon, a stud in his own right. There’s been a little speculation on Mixon’s health, and if you roster him in fantasy, you’ve seen that red Q pop up. He hasn’t been practicing and was spotted in a walking boot during OTAs. Houston brought Chubb in for a reason; he could be the RB1 in Houston.
At his current price, I’m not fading Chubb (158.6 overall, round 13). In his last healthy season, he was RB6 overall and in points per game (16.6). Mixon’s health could lead to a big role, but even if he stays healthy, this will be a 1a/1b running back committee. That’s enough to make Chubb extremely valuable, and he’ll easily outpace his ADP when he’s on the field.
TE Jonnu Smith MIA Fantasy ADP
Jonnu Smith burst onto the scene last year as he led the Miami Dolphins in receptions (88) and receiving touchdowns (8). Unlike Dobbins and Chubb, Smith isn’t on the move…yet. Contract discussions and trade rumors are swirling for Smith, as he hasn’t shown up for mandatory minicamp this week.
Despite the lack of a contract and potential trade rumors, it’s undeniable that Smith blossomed last year. After week 10, he averaged 18.6 points per game, and that would’ve been good enough to rank as TE1 for the season. Not showing up to mandatory minicamp has fantasy managers worried about where he may end up or if he even plays the beginning of the season.
(ADP-4.2, pick 105.3, Rostered 87% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Smith’s agent is Drew Rosenhaus, a well-known negotiator and agent. The other day, the agent shared an insight on the negotiations, calling them “still fluid.” That’s not bad news, but also nothing concrete for where or when we can expect Smith back out on the field. Smith has always had the potential, but he’ll turn 30 this season.
I’m torn here as I want to see where Smith ends up. As my friend and known tight end whisperer, Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco on X), mentions, we should target tight ends who can end up in the top 2 for targets for their team. Miami currently has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who eat up targets. Last year, their health played a big part in Smith blowing up. If Smith goes somewhere with a weaker wide receiver room, I’ll be in on him, but if he resigns in Miami, I’ll pass.
QB C.J. Stroud HOU Fantasy ADP
Heading back to Houston for another ADP mover, it’s 3rd-year quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud was 8th in MVP voting and Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023. He officially took the fantasy world by storm before having a sophomore slump season in year 2.
In the past few months, the Texans have made several moves to guarantee that Stroud succeeds. Drafting WR Jayden Higgins (round 2 pick), T Aireontae Ersery (round 2 pick), and WR Jaylin Noel (round 3 pick) with their first 3 selections in the 2025 draft showed their commitment. Add those draft picks to the recent signing of Nick Chubb, and it’s clear the Texans are building around Stroud.
(ADP +6.3, pick 145.9, Rostered 47.6% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Stroud faced a year 2 slump, but fading him to QB18 (his overall finish for QB last year) is too far. That ranking is the absolute floor for Stroud. In 2023, as a rookie, Stroud was QB11 overall and QB10 in points per game. His 18.7 points per game in 2023 were ahead of Justin Herbert (18.5), Patrick Mahomes (18.5), and Justin Fields (18.4, the last time he started a full season).
With the Texans revamping their offensive line and bringing in two top wide receivers via the draft, savvy fantasy managers are buying the dip for Stroud. The biggest question mark is a mystery surrounding a shoulder injury for Stroud. Texans’ General Manager, Nic Caserio, has said that it’s not a major concern, so for now I’m optimistic (but I’ll be keeping a close eye on this). I’m easily smashing Stroud at his ADP of QB18 and would ideally pair him with an upside rushing QB (Fields, Daniel Jones, or J.J. McCarthy).
RB R.J. Harvey DEN Fantasy ADP
I wrote about J.K. Dobbins above and how that’s thrown some cold water on the R.J. Harvey hype. Well, no surprise to see Harvey as one of this week’s fallers in ADP (-4.2 spots). Fantasy managers have been drafting Harvey as the bellcow for the Denver Broncos over the last few weeks, but with the Dobbins signing, the brakes got put on fast.
Harvey was a 2nd round pick, 60th overall, in this year’s NFL draft. Denver targeted Harvey as the Broncos’ Head Coach, Sean Payton, knew exactly what he wanted. He was targeting a 3-down running back to fit his system, and that guy was Harvey. His college stats are next-level as he was the only running back this past season to top 1,500 rushing yards on less than 250 attempts. He also tacked on another 267 receiving yards.
(ADP -4.2, pick 64.6, Rostered 87.7% on ESPN redraft/snake)
The fear that Dobbins is going to take some work is legit. However, as I mentioned above, there’s a good chance that Dobbins/Harvey become the next Ingram/Kamara in Payton’s system. Ingram and Kamara had multiple seasons of RB1 outputs playing together in New Orleans under Payton. Harvey’s advanced metrics via PlayerProfiler have Harvey compared to Chase Brown, who finished as RB12 with 54 receptions last season, so very Kamara-esque (Athleticism Score: 103.6 for Kamara vs. 103.5 for Harvey).
Harvey’s shiny new toy as a rookie running back has his ADP at 64.6 overall despite the recent slight drop. That makes Harvey an early pick in the 5th round. Overall, he’s clocking as RB27 in the rankings, and that’s low (an RB3 for fantasy). He and Dobbins won’t just coexist; they will thrive in the Broncos’ ascending offense this year. Like James Cook in previous seasons, I’m taking Harvey everywhere I can get him as an RB3 with potential to be an RB1, which is well within his potential outcomes.
QB Justin Fields NYJ Fantasy ADP
The New York Jets got off the Aaron Rodgers ride this offseason and jumped on the Justin Fields carousel. Fields has so much fantasy potential and has been talked about non-stop by fantasy managers. His rushing upside as a quarterback (50.2 yards per game over his career) makes him one of the potential “fantasy game breakers” for leagues of all kinds.
The irony of this offseason is that Rodgers and Fields have essentially switched places (Fields in New York/Rodgers in Pittsburgh). In Fields’ six starts last season, he averaged 19.05 points per game before being replaced by Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh. That average would’ve qualified him for QB9 on a points per game basis last year over the full season (quarterbacks who made more than one start).
(ADP +3.8, pick 129, Rostered 69.9% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Fields reunites with his collegiate wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, and the duo has created fireworks before. At Ohio State in 2020, Fields completed 70.2% of his passes and threw for 22 touchdowns. That same season, Wilson was one of the Buckeyes’ leading wide receivers with 723 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Along with Wilson, the Jets also feature Breece Hall and rookie tight end Mason Taylor (round 2 pick, 42nd overall) among the weapons for Fields.
Fields going in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts is too late. With his upside to be a QB1, he qualifies as a “league winner” with such a low ADP (129th overall, late 10th round). With guys like Fields, Stroud, Jones, and others slipping in drafts, I see no reason to reach on a quarterback this season.
Fresh fantasy football news is available, and mandatory minicamps have more inside information than the previous OTAs, so stay tuned. I’ll see you next week as we continue our ADP Risers and Fallers series throughout the Summer! If you’re on X, follow me, @JKeasy, as we can discuss moving ADPs, sleepers, and much more!
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