Football
Football Week 1: Under the Radar with Consistency!
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Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us! Welcome to the first “Under the Radar with Consistency” article of the new year. Which players come into 2025 riding a Clutch Game streak from last year?
Welcome back to the Under the Radar with Consistency series! This series focuses on football consistency for those players who tend to be overlooked in most fantasy football leagues. For football week 1, I’ll focus on some players who ended last season on a hot streak.
For those who are new or need a refresher, here are a few key terms and definitions to help you during the season when reading.
- Clutch Factor (CF) – the average points a player needs to meet or exceed a Clutch Game based on scoring settings and league size. Think QB1, RB2, WR2, and TE1 thresholds.
- Clutch Games (CG) – weekly per-game award for a player who hits the CF factor. The more of these, the more consistent the player is.
- Clutch Rate (CR) – total of CG earned divided by total games; top fantasy players are usually > 70%.
- Football Consistency Report Tool (Scoring can be edited/Standard listed below)
- Based on 12-team leagues
- 4 points per passing touchdown
- 6 points for all other touchdowns
- 1 point per reception (PPR)
- 1 point per 20 passing yards
- 1 point per 10 rushing yards or 10 receiving yards
Let’s dig in and see who’s already flying under the radar for consistency this season! Need more consistency? Sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football Under the Radar (with consistency) – 9/1/2025
QB Bo Nix, DEN Football Week 1.
The Denver Broncos expect big things this season from the second-year quarterback, Bo Nix. Once Head Coach Sean Payton took the training wheels off last season, the QB flourished and finished as a QB1 (QB8 in points per game).
Correspondingly, in the 17 games Nix played last year, he had 10 qualified Clutch Games. His 59% Clutch Rate may look a little low at first, but from week 11 on, he was 5 of 7. Additionally, that included finishing the season with 3 straight Clutch Games.
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(2024 Statistics: 59% CR, QB8: 19.3 PPG, ADP QB8 on ESPN redraft/snake)
During that final 7-game stretch, Nix averaged 22.33 points per game. That per-game average was less than .3 points from QB2 on the season, Josh Allen (22.6). Last season was historic for Nix as he finished with the second-most touchdown passes of any rookie QB in NFL history (29 to Justin Herbert‘s 31).
In addition to Nix in year 2, the Broncos added to their offense this offseason, bringing in Evan Engram and J.K. Dobbins, with rookies R.J. Harvey and Pat Bryant. Those additions will only help elevate Nix, with a QB8 finish last season and consistency on his side, I believe he’ll be a top 5 QB this year.
RB James Cook, BUF
Fresh off a new contract extension (4 years, $48M), James Cook is looking to increase his workload this year. In fact, Cook has already had discussions with the coaching staff, asking to take on more work.
Despite a lower snap percentage (<50%), Cook appeared in 16 games for Buffalo, and he registered 12 Clutch Games. That 75% tied him for RB14 in CR on the season. He finished the season strong, with 8 out of his final 10 games qualifying as Clutch Games.
(2024 Statistics: 75% CR, RB11: 16.7 PPG, ADP RB13 on ESPN redraft/snake)
Not only was Cook clutch last season, but he was also a high-end point scorer. All in all, he scored 11.3 points or more in 12 of his 16 games played. He had 9 RB1 weekly finishes, and four of those games were top 5!
The Bills didn’t bring in any competition for Cook this offseason, and their belief in him was cemented with the contract extension. Cook has been doubted since joining the NFL, but he’s now had back-to-back RB1 seasons. With a 44.58% snap percentage last season, it’s easy to imagine what he could do with elevated playing time.
RB Aaron Jones, MIN
Looking across the league for fantasy football week 1, it’s a similar story to previous seasons; some positional players are overlooked as they aren’t the shiny new toys. Aaron Jones fails squarely into that category as a boring veteran.
Despite not being a shiny new toy, Jones is incredibly consistent. As a matter of fact, Jones sported an 88% CR last season. That was good enough to be the RB7 overall in CR. He even finished the season with 7 straight Clutch Games.
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(2024 Statistics: 88% CR, RB20: 14.2 PPG, ADP RB25 on ESPN redraft/snake)
Jones’ consistency, scoring 11.5 or more points in 13 of 17 games played, was on full display last season. That consistency propelled him to an RB20 finish in points per game, averaging 14.2. based on his fantasy efficiency. Specifically, Jones caught 51 passes last season, and he also ran for 1,138 yards.
The Vikings did bring in Jordan Mason this offseason, and some fantasy managers think he’ll cut into Jones’ workload. The thing is, Jones only had a 62.67% snap percentage last season, so the Vikings were already sharing the RB workload. I do expect Mason to have a good year, but his main purpose will be to help Jones stay healthy as his backup.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN Football Week 1.
Bo Nix is one of my favorite QB1s to target this season. Expecting him to take the next step, it’s easy to like his WR1, Courtland Sutton, as well. Just like Nix, Sutton flourished as the season went on, and we all got a glimpse of what to expect this year.
This past season, Sutton finished with 12 Clutch Games and a 75% CR. Additionally, that percentage was good enough for him to finish tied as WR13 in CR percentage for the season. From week 8 on, he had 9 Clutch Games out of the 10 games played.
(2024 Statistics: 75% CR, WR26: 14.1 PPG, ADP WR24 on ESPN redraft/snake)
From week 6 through the end of the season, Sutton scored 10+ points in every game that he finished healthy (he missed time in week 7 against New Orleans). During that 10-game stretch, he averaged 17.96 points, which would’ve ranked as WR8, just ahead of CeeDee Lamb (17.6).
Sutton and Nix showcased great chemistry in the second half of the season last year. With Nix set to make a jump in year 2, it won’t be surprising to see Sutton flirting with WR1 numbers this season. Sutton is the clear alpha in Denver; 130+ targets are easily obtainable.
TE Jonnu Smith, PIT Football Week 1.
The Pittsburgh Steelers revamped their entire offense this offseason. This included Aaron Rodgers replacing Russell Wilson, Kaleb Johnson drafted to replace Najee Harris, D.K. Metcalf is now WR1 after they shipped out George Pickens, and Jonnu Smith looks like he’ll be TE1.
Before coming to Pittsburgh, Smith managed a 71% CR last season. Furthermore, he tied for TE3 in CR with Brock Bowers. He finished the season strong, on an 8-game Clutch Game streak, and ended with 9 TE1 weekly games.
(2024 Statistics: 71% CR, TE5: 13.1 PPG, ADP TE19 on ESPN redraft/snake)
Smith averaged 18.59 points per game during that 8-game stretch, and it was an absolutely insane run for him. During that run, his average was almost 3 points more per game than TE1, George Kittle, for the entire season (15.8). He scored 11 or more points in 11 of his 17 games played.
Last year, Smith competed with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for targets; this year, his only real competition is Metcalf. I expect he’ll be the number 2 target easily, and his yards after the catch ability (4th overall amongst TEs last season with 510 yards) will fit in nicely with Rodgers at QB.
We get to watch football in week 1 of the NFL season this week! Also, be sure to check in again next week for my weekly in-season series “Under the Radar with Consistency” article! Follow me on X, @JKeasy, for more football!
Got Your Big Guy Football Consistency Report Yet? Fantasy ADP.
