ADP Fantasy Football Riser of the Week: Rome Odunze

As more news comes in, Average Draft Position (ADP) becomes critical for Fantasy Football. Some player movement and news have wide receivers moving this week. Look below for key notes on which players have ADP movement this week.

Summer is rolling along, and the NFL news cycle is hotter than the thermostat. My series of ADP movers continues today with a few key players and their recent notes driving that movement.

ADP (average draft position) drives fantasy football, and staying on top of it gives managers an edge. As drafts start, be sure to know who’s moving and why.

I’ll be here every week to help guide you. ADP is living, breathing, and constantly updating. Stay tuned! Also, sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!

Fantasy Football ADP Updates (with consistency) – 6/30/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP

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WR Rome Odunze CHI Fantasy ADP.

Following along with me this Summer, you know I’m in on the Chicago Bears’ offense (Caleb Williams is ranked too low in ADP). Caleb Williams will take a big step forward this season, and Rome Odunze is set to benefit. Odunze was the 9th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He has the necessary skillset to be the WR1 in Chicago.

Many fantasy footballers claim to be disappointed in Odunze’s rookie season, but a deeper look shows it was pretty good. He finished with 101 targets, 54 receptions, 734 yards receiving, and 3 touchdowns. Expectations were tempered coming into the season as the Bears featured D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet as incumbent pass catchers. That trio combined for 316 targets in 2024. Odunze getting 100+ targets on top of that shows he’s capable of earning targets with the best.

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(ADP +3.4, pick 82.6, Rostered 86.8% on ESPN redraft/snake)

Speaking of targets, the Bears let Keenan Allen walk this offseason. That means 121 targets are up for grabs in the offense. Sure, the Bears drafted Luther Burden III (round 2, 39th overall) and Colston Loveland (round 1, 10th overall) in the 2025 NFL Draft, but Odunze has higher draft capital than both. Odunze has been in the system for a year and will take over for Allen immediately.

Odunze’s 2024 season isn’t that far off from Marvin Harrison Jr., who had 116 targets, 62 receptions, 885 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Harrison currently has an ADP of 47.2, compared to Odunze at 82.6. The Cardinals lost no significant target earners from last season (compared to Allen for the Bears). That gap of 35+ picks is too much. I’m in on Williams and Odunze this season for redraft (even more so in Dynasty). 

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WR Calvin Ridley TEN

The Tennessee Titans made Cam Ward the number 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. With Ward at quarterback, all tides on their offense will rise. This includes the WR1, Calvin Ridley. Ridley is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, and a 6th-round ADP is too low for him.

Last year, Ridley was WR28 overall in PPR. He achieved that spot despite being on a new team and playing with the quarterback duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph (less than ideal). Ward, last season in 13 games, threw for almost 1,000 yards more than the entire Titans team in 17 games. 

(ADP +3.4, pick 80.4, Rostered 88.3% on ESPN redraft/snake)

The receiving room in Tennessee presents next to no competition for Ridley. Last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo was second on the team with 70 targets, their number 3 target earner at 60 was let go (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine). They brought in Tyler Lockett (less than 50 receptions in Seattle last year), two 4th-round rookies (Chimere Dike, 103rd, and Elic Ayomanor, 136th), and a UDFA, Xavier Restrepo.

With a lack of competition, a career track record of being a top wideout, and the addition of Ward at QB, Ridley is set to eat again this year. 125+ targets, 1,000+ yards, and an uptick in touchdowns (last year was the lowest of his career, where he played more than 5 games) indicate he needs to be targeted in drafts. He’s a WR2 with WR1 upside. I’m taking this discount all day!

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WR Jaylen Waddle MIA

Looking at the Miami Dolphins, I’m higher than most on Jaylen Waddle. Most fantasy players seem infatuated with Tyreek Hill. I’m in the camp that Hill is on the back-nine of his career, so Waddle is destined for more involvement. The recent trade, the Dolphins sent tight end Jonnu Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers, opens up even more opportunities for Waddle.

Before last season, Waddle had 3 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Trading away Smith frees up 111 targets for this upcoming season. 140, 117, 104 are Waddle’s target numbers in the three 1,000-yard seasons. Last year, he only saw 83 targets. The biggest offseason addition to the receiving room has been Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who’s hardly a target earner (career-high of 60) worthy of Waddle.

(ADP +2.7, pick 78, Rostered 89.7% on ESPN redraft/snake)

In 2024, Waddle’s target rate was 18.5%. That was down almost 10% from his previous season, where he finished 10th in the NFL at 27.5%. Combined with the abandoned targets from Smith, with Hill another year older, I’m in on the 26-year-old Waddle having a bounce-back year. Tua Tagovailoa missed 6 games last season; he only missed 4 combined in the previous two seasons. A big reason for Waddle’s lack of production was the absence of Tagovailoa.

Pick 78 is too late for Waddle. He’s in a consolidated receiving tree where he and Hill will see the bulk of the targets. He has WR1 outcomes within his range due to back-to-back WR1 seasons in 2021 and 2022. His fantasy ADP has him at WR29 behind Devonta Smith (WR26), Travis Hunter (WR27), and George Pickens (WR28). Without injury, none of those guys has a shot at leading their team in targets, but Waddle can.

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QB Jared Goff DET Fantasy ADP.

The Detroit Lions have been an offensive juggernaut the past few seasons. With finishes of 1st, 5th, and 5th in points per game over the last 3 seasons to back that statement up. Jared Goff was the quarterback on all those teams and finished as QB6, QB7, and QB10.

With an ADP of 152.7, Goff is being drafted in the 12th round of fantasy football drafts. That makes him QB18 off the board. With such great fantasy seasons over the past 3 seasons, why the price drop? Bob Lung touched on the main issue in his article, Jared Goff and His Inconsistency Is Not Worthy of Your Love.

(ADP -1.5, pick 152.7, Rostered 63% on ESPN redraft/snake)

That issue is consistency. Goff continually has some of the biggest variable splits across the league. For the past 3 seasons (those where he was a QB10 or better), Goff sports a 47% Consistency Rating (CR). That means, as Bob pointed out, that over 50% of Goff’s games, he wasn’t a QB1 (startable in 12-team formats).In 2024, Goff registered 8 of 17 games as a QB1. His other nine games consisted of six QB2 finishes and three QB3 finishes.

Goff thrives away from the elements, and last year was no different. Six of his QB1 finishes came indoors. Even indoors, Goff had several bad games: QB25 at home vs. TB, QB25 at Indianapolis, and QB23 at home vs. Minnesota. That variability, the lack of rushing upside (over 100 yards once, in 2018), and the absence of Offensive Coordinator (OC) Ben Johnson (left to be Head Coach of the Chicago Bears) have fantasy managers scared off of Goff. I’m out on Goff.

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WR Chris Olave NO

With some players, fantasy ADP has more to do with intangibles than their on-field play. Chris Olave is one of those players. His history of concussions has fantasy managers worried about his availability. Olave missed the final nine games of the 2024 season with his 4th concussion since entering the league.

Despite the injury concerns, Olave has proven to be a high-end wide receiver. In 2023, he finished as WR16 overall and was WR25 overall in 2022. Olave is a former 11th-round draft pick (2022 NFL Draft) who has commanded targets when healthy. Before last year, Olave averaged 128.5 targets per season.

(ADP +2.7, pick 94.4, Rostered 86.8% on ESPN redraft/snake)

In games, Olave has been healthy and received 6+ targets (over the past two seasons); he averages 15.5 points per game. That average would’ve ranked him as WR17 in points per game last season. This year, he’ll have to deal with either Tyler Shough (2nd-round rookie) or Spencer Rattler (a 5th-round rookie from last season) as his quarterback. Olave has produced with subpar QB play before (Rattler, Derek Carr, Jake Haener, Jameis Winston, and Andy Dalton over the past three seasons).

Olave is being drafted as WR38 despite having WR1 upside. The injury concern is real, but the price is overly baked in. Olave will easily lead the Saints in targets this season and return borderline WR1 fantasy production. Only an injury can derail that, and I’m not in the business of trying to predict those. When drafting, I’ll take Olave confidently as my WR2, and ecstatically as my WR3.

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WR George Pickens DAL Fantasy ADP.

Here’s a wide receiver with immense talent, and he was recently traded to a fantasy-friendly offense in Dallas. George Pickens goes from being the alpha WR in Pittsburgh to the WR2 to CeeDee Lamb in Dallas. Although Lamb has already claimed that he and Pickens are more like 1a/1b, as they’re both WR1s.

Of course, Pickens’ WR1 run in Pittsburgh was done for with the acquisition of D.K. Metcalf before being traded to Dallas. But in Dallas, he’ll be in an offense that was 11th in passing yards per game last season (even with QB Dak Prescott missing several games) and 3rd the year before.

(ADP +1.8, pick 71.4, Rostered 91.8% on ESPN redraft/snake)

Last season, with a mix of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson throwing him passes, Pickens finished as WR40 in points per game. In 2023, Pickens finished as WR36 with 1,140 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. The argument for his jump is how much better Prescott is and the increased target volume. The past two seasons, Pickens has seen 106 and 103 targets; Dallas’s 2nd target has averaged 94.

With the target increase for Dallas’ second option, Pickens will have a similar target volume (unless Lamb misses time) to his time in Pittsburgh. Pickens is a 5th-round pick in fantasy football ADP, as the WR28 off the board. That feels an awful lot like paying ceiling prices for a player. In fantasy drafts, someone else will reach well before I do to secure Pickens.

Thanks for making it this far. I’ll hopefully see you back next week for more of the ADP Risers and Fallers series throughout the Summer!  On X, follow me, @JKeasy, as we can discuss moving ADPs, sleepers, and much more!

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