Football
Risers and Fallers for ADP in Fantasy: Keenan Allen is UP!
Welcome Back! Big Guy Fantasy Sports is thrilled to bring you another year of the best in NFL consistency rankings and championship fantasy football strategy.
As fantasy football kicks into high gear, I continue taking a look at the risers and fallers by Average Draft Position (ADP). Preseason Week 1 is complete, and new information is available. What’s notable and what’s not?
This week, we got our first glimpse into every team as they played week 1 of the preseason. Each team handles the preseason differently; some play their starters for a select amount of time, while others believe in resting all of their established starters.
Taking a look at those games, along with other pertinent information, I’ve gathered this week’s top risers and fallers. Some are due to the games themselves, some are due to finally signing with a team, and others are due to team news.
Keep reading to get some insight into the top movers this week for fantasy football! Also, sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football ADP Updates (with consistency) – 8/11/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP
WR Keenan Allen LAC Risers and Fallers.
Welcome back to Los Angeles, Keenan Allen! Allen signed with the Chargers this past week and immediately jumped 32+ picks in ADP. As recently as 2023, he was with the Chargers, where he had 108 receptions, 1,243 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns. He put up those numbers in 13 games.
Allen played his first 11 seasons with the Chargers, so he’s very familiar with the team. Last season, he played for the Chicago Bears, where he had 70 receptions, 740 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns. He turned 33 years old in April, so there’s some concern that the age cliff is coming for him.
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(ADP +32.4, pick 137.7, Rostered 41.0% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Even with his age, Allen has proven that he can consistently score fantasy points. In a down year, by his standards, Allen scored 12.4 points per game last season (WR35 PPG, WR34 overall). The year before, as I mentioned, he was outstanding, averaging 21.5 points per game, finishing as WR3 in PPG. Allen’s Clutch Rate (CR) fell to 33% last season in Chicago but was 92% in 2023 with the Chargers.
Ladd McConkey has ascended to the WR1 spot for the Chargers, but Allen will compete in a wide-open wide receiver room behind him. His ADP is 137.7, and I expect that number will continue climbing as we get closer to the regular season. In the 11th round, Allen can provide a floor of WR3 with upside. That’s a high-value pick that late in drafts.
WR Josh Downs IND
The Indianapolis Colts are currently having a quarterback battle between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. The winner of that battle will have a lot of weapons at their disposal. A receiver group that includes Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren (1st Round, 14th Overall). He received 107 targets, 72 receptions, 803 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns last season
Downs averaged 9.2 points per game (WR54) in his rookie season in 9 starts. Last season, despite unsteady quarterback play, he averaged 13.1 as WR32. The Colts believe that the addition of Jones will give them better quarterback play, whether Richardson plays better or they end up starting Jones.
(ADP +18.1, pick 142.7, Rostered 46.4% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Downs is a complete wide receiver who will earn 100+ targets this season. His talent is undeniable, and that shone through last season, where he had a 64% CR. His consistent play is one of the main reasons why he’s on the risers and fallers list as a riser this week.
Depending on which analyst you’re listening to, the Colts’ receiving hierarchy is usually divided 3 ways. Some are in on Downs, some on Pittman, and lately, a larger drumbeat for Warren. Downs is being selected in the 11th round (142.7 overall) as WR54, which is a great value for a receiver whose floor is a WR3. As my WR3/Flex, I’m drafting Downs as the Colts’ WR1 in every draft I’m in.
QB Drake Maye NE
Last year, we saw some amazing rookie seasons at the quarterback position. Players like Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye all flashed extreme talent. Maye didn’t get his first start until week 6 and played in 13 games (12 starts). This year, he’s had a full year of learning the system, and it’s his show from the start.
If you’ve been following along, then you know that I’m big on mobile quarterbacks for fantasy. Maye checks that box, having run for 421 yards (32.4 per game) last season. Once he became the starter (and played a full game), he had at least 3 rushing attempts per game, averaging 4.73 attempts.
(ADP +13.0, pick 144.1, Rostered 52.2% on ESPN redraft/snake)
During the 11 games that Maye completed, he averaged 16.82 points per game. That average would’ve ranked him as QB17 for the season. Removing his week 17 start, he had a 58% CR. Both of those numbers should improve this season as the Patriots brought Josh McDaniels back as Offensive Coordinator, along with weapons Stefon Diggs and rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson (2nd Round, 38th Overall), this offseason.
Maye is currently being selected as the QB18. Even without any growth, that’s his floor. There are a few targets I like in drafts ahead of him, such as Nix and Williams. If I miss those targets, then I’ll switch my focus to getting Maye in the 11th-12th round. His price will continue to rise as he has QB1 upside in all leagues.
WR Jack Bech LV Risers and Fallers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have a new Head Coach in Pete Carroll and have a revamped offense from last season. They drafted running back Ashton Jeanty (1st Round, 6th Overall), wide receivers Jack Bech (2nd Round, 58th Overall), and Dont’e Thornton (4th Round, 108th Overall) in the first 4 rounds of the NFL Draft.
Bech, despite being drafted 2 rounds earlier than Thornton, finds himself as a faller this week in the ADP risers and fallers. Down over 18 picks, the first preseason camp, and early indicators at camp show Thornton ahead of him in the receiver race. Bech now finds himself as the WR59 currently in drafts.
(ADP -18.6, pick 164.2, Rostered 41.2% on ESPN redraft/snake)
In college at TCU, Bech was a second-team All-Big 12 Conference player last season. He led the team with 62 receptions, 1,034 receiving yards, and 9 receiving touchdowns while starting 12 games. He has talent, and his PlayerProfiler athleticism score of 105.2 was top 5 in this year’s wide receiver draft class.
Bech is a dynasty asset, but for redraft purposes, it’s hard to envision high-end fantasy contributions this season. His biggest obstacle is that he profiles similarly to Jakobi Meyers, the current WR1 for the Raiders. Meyers, who’ll be 29 in November, is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. If he drops far enough in redraft (currently 13th Round), I may have a couple of shares of Bech, but for this season, my expectations are tempered.
RB Javonte Williams DAL
The Denver Broncos drafted Javonte Williams in the 2nd Round (35th Overall) of the 2021 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and LCL in October of 2022. He missed 13 games that season and hasn’t looked the same since those injuries.
Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry before his injuries. In the two seasons since, he’s averaged 3.62 yards per carry. Williams has maintained a pass-catching role over the last two years, averaging 64 targets, 49.5 receptions, and 287 receiving yards over that time frame. He finished as RB30 in 2024 and RB29 overall the season prior. In 2021, when he was healthy, he was RB17 overall.
(ADP -9.5, pick 116.0, Rostered 80.6% on ESPN redraft/snake)
The Cowboys signed Williams to a one-year, $3M deal for this season. It’s a “prove it” deal, and the Cowboys currently have him penciled in as their RB1. In their first preseason game, Williams was the only running back to rest with the starters. This is a great indication that they intend for him to be their week 1 starter.
He dropped almost 10 spots this week in ADP, and I’m not sure what’s driving that other than rookie hype for Jaydon Blue (5th Round, 149th Overall). With his RB1 status in Dallas, it feels like his RB33 draft spot is his floor. A starting running back in the middle of the 9th Round of drafts is fantastic. I won’t reach, but if I need an RB late, there are only a few guys available who have a higher ceiling than Williams.
RB TreVeyon Henderson NE Risers and Fallers.
I touched on the New England Patriots above in the Drake Maye write-up. One of the new additions that should make a big difference is TreVeyon Henderson. The running back looks like lightning in a bottle as he returned a kick on his first touch in the NFL (week 1 preseason for the Patriots) for a touchdown.
Henderson is up 7 spots this week in ADP and has moved to RB23. That feels a bit pricey, but Henderson was a third-team All-Big Ten Conference player last year at Ohio State. Despite sharing a backfield with Quinshon Judkins, he had 1,016 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 284 receiving yards, and 11 total touchdowns (10 rushing) last year.
(ADP +7.0, pick 80.3, Rostered 87.0% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Henderson is battling Rhamondre Stevenson for the RB1 job. Fantasy players are firmly in camp, Henderson; he’s picked 40 spots ahead of Stevenson (80.2 to 120.9). New OC Josh McDaniels has reportedly been gushing over him as potentially the fastest running back he’s had, “…TreVeyon is fast, fast. Excited to be with him.”.
Henderson is one of “my guys” this season, and earlier in the offseason, he was an absolute smash at ADP. With his price creeping up (80.3 Overall), he’s still a good value, but the margin for value is closing. He’s being drafted as a low-end RB2 right now, and that’s where I like him. If he gets closer to being drafted as a borderline RB1, then I believe that’s too expensive.
We’ve got more preseason games and a ton more information coming this week! I’ll be back next week for more of the ADP Risers and Fallers series! On X, follow me, @JKeasy, as we can discuss moving ADPs, sleepers, and much more!
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