Football
Fantasy ADP Movement this week: Rashee Rice is Falling!
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Weekly Average Draft Position (ADP) is in constant flux. This week is no different; ready to stay up to date on the fantasy ADP movers each week, let’s jump in!
On July 31st, we’ll have NFL football as the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers face off! The game will be broadcast on NBC at 8 pm EST.
As the season approaches, we’re keeping an eye on fantasy ADP (average draft position) movement. Some legal news for cases broke this past week, as well as teams starting up training camp.
I’m going to touch on a few players and give some relevant information you need to know! Also, sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football ADP Updates (with consistency) – 7/21/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP
WR Rashee Rice KC Fantasy ADP MOVERS.
The latest legal updates for Rashee Rice haven’t been good. He was sentenced to five years’ probation and 30 days in jail (can be served any time during the five years). Earlier in the offseason, Rice was a big ADP riser as many anticipated his trial wouldn’t happen until later in the season.
Due to the sentencing, it’s expected that the NFL will expedite Rice’s disciplining. Although it hasn’t been announced, most media outlets project a multiple-game suspension (2-6 games is what I’ve mostly heard).
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(ADP -5.9, pick 50.7, Rostered 94.4% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Fantasy ADP movement has Rice moving from a 2nd-round fantasy draft pick to a 4th-round pick. In a small sample size, Rice had a 75% CR last season (this includes the game he got hurt in). In 2023, he had a 69% CR. His 21.63 points per game last season (in games he finished) would’ve been WR2 behind only Ja’Marr Chase. When he’s playing, he’s an elite fantasy wide receiver.
Dropping almost 6 spots and into the 4th round is an overcorrection. Rice will be back, and getting a WR1 in the 4th round or later (as his slide continues) is a cheat code. I’m picking him and drafting my team accordingly to ease his absence in my lineup for the first few weeks.
WR Jordan Addison MIN
More legal news, this time on the Jordan Addison front. An update came as Addison pleaded “No Contest” in his ongoing DUI case. Fantasy managers expect a suspension (the plea automatically triggered a 3-game suspension).
Addison is a top-talent wide receiver who plays in an offense with a narrow receiving tree. The three-game suspension is likely less than what Rice will incur. These aren’t equal suspensions, as Addision hasn’t matched the WR1 production of Rice. Last season, he finished as WR21 overall (212.5) and tied for WR24 in points per game (14.2).
(ADP -2.0, pick 97.3, Rostered 87.7% on ESPN redraft/snake)
In 2024, Addison had a 53% CR. It wasn’t much better in 2023 either; he finished with a 59% CR that season. He’s not a bad WR2, but that’s his ceiling unless we project Justin Jefferson to fall off (I’m not doing that).
In the early 8th round (97.3 overall), it doesn’t feel like a big risk, but I’d rather draft Chris Olave (97.6), Stefon Diggs (108.1), or Khalil Shakir (108.3). Fantasy ADP movement has each of these wide receivers drafted around the same time. Addison’s upside doesn’t outweigh the current cost.
WR Tre Harris LAC
Addition by subtraction is a real thing. Tre Harris was drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2nd round (55th overall). He’s been quietly building up some steam, and this week, wide receiver Mike Williams announced his retirement. Targets for the Chargers are again a hot topic, and Harris will be in the conversation for WR2 there.
Harris’ biggest obstacle is Quentin Johnston, a former 1st round pick. Johnston has had an issue with drops throughout his early career (tied for 9th most last season). This past year at Mississippi, Harris put up big-time numbers. Among wide receivers in this draft class, he was 1st in yards per game (128.8) and 4th in receptions per game (7.5).
(ADP +3.6, pick 162.7, Rostered 20.6% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Reports from the Chargers’ camp state that they plan to start Harris at the Z position. That position was vacated by Joshua Palmer, who left for Buffalo this offseason, vacating 65 targets. I expect Harris to take the majority of those and also to take some of Johnston’s total of 91.
Justin Herbert threw the ball 504 times last season, a repeat of that with an extremely efficient Ladd McConkey and Tre Harris will create some fireworks. In the 13th round (162.7 overall), he’s an easy smash pick for fantasy managers with a lot of upside. His fantasy ADP movement will continue to rise until the season starts.
WR Xavier Worthy KC Fantasy ADP MOVERS.
The ebbs and flows of ADP mean one player is rising and another is falling. We touched on Rice dropping, and one of the counters to that is that Xavier Worthy is on the rise. Worthy was already an ascending talent coming into his second season in the NFL, but the suspension talk for Rice has him spiking this week.
The absence of a target hog like Rice means Worthy will eat well. Last year, he finished as the WR33 overall while averaging 11 points per game. As the season went on, he got comfortable and continued to earn targets at a higher rate (averaging 10.33 targets per game over his last 3 games played).
(ADP +2.5, pick 58.5, Rostered 96.9% on ESPN redraft/snake)
In those 3 games, Worthy averaged 21 points per game. It showcased his potential as the top target and gave fantasy managers an idea of what he’s capable of. For the season, he had a 50% CR, but that was mostly due to some early-season rookie acclimation. From week 11 on, Worthy only had two games under 10 PPR points (week 12 at 9.1 and week 14 at 9.6).
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense is still top-notch. The last time an Andy Reid team wasn’t top 15 in points scored was 2014 (the Chiefs were 16th). Worthy is being drafted as WR23 (58.5 overall), he’ll outpace that this year. Give me both Rice and Worthy at ADP.
WR Garrett Wilson NYJ
Garrett Wilson is destined to be one of those fantasy assets who are constantly underappreciated. He’ll turn 25 this week (July 22) and already has three 80+ reception and 1,000+ yard seasons on his resume. That’s elite company, as only Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, and Odell Beckham Jr. started their careers off with 80+ receptions and 1,000+ yards in their first three years.
Despite competing with Davante Adams, Wilson still finished as WR10 overall (251.9, just ahead of Adams at 241.3) and WR21 in points per game (14.2). The Jets let Adams and Mike Williams leave for L.A.. Between them, the Jets have 135 vacated targets up for grabs from last season.
(ADP +2.0, pick 51.4, Rostered 96.5% on ESPN redraft/snake)
It’s undeniable that Wilson has WR1 potential, and he’s consistent; he had a 65% CR last season. He’s a lock to get 145+ targets, so his ADP as WR20 (51.4 overall) is too low. No one in New York is competing with Wilson for targets.
At his current cost, I bet Wilson rekindles some magic with Fields. I love him being my WR1 in some builds (RBs early) and would be ecstatic to have him as my WR2 in the 4th round.
RB Jerome Ford CLE Fantasy ADP Movement.
I talked about Jerome Ford last week when I identified Quinshon Judkins as an ADP faller. Judkins is still falling, and Ford is on the rise (up around 2 spots this week). Savvy fantasy managers are looking to find value in the Cleveland backfield; it’s between Ford and Dylan Sampson (picked in the 4th round this year).
Sampson is moving up in drafts, but not as quickly as Ford. Ford is the incumbent and has proven effective in the past. He was RB16 overall (211.2) and RB25 in points per game in 2023 (12.4). Last year, his opportunities weren’t as plentiful, but he still managed an RB33 overall (134) and RB35 in points per game finish (9.6).
(ADP +1.8, pick 167.9, Rostered 24.2% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Back-to-back seasons have Ford as an RB3 or better. In 2023, Ford had a 65% CR as he showcased his 3-down capability. He rushed for 813 yards and added 44 receptions for another 319 receiving yards. Last season in a reduced role (6 starts compared to 12 in 2024), Ford still produced 565 rushing yards with 37 receptions and 225 receiving yards.
In fantasy, Ford’s upside gets you an RB2, and his floor looks to be a low-end RB3. He’ll be an extreme value this season.
As camps start up and player information is readily available, be sure to check in each week! Fantasy ADP movement is in full swing, and we’ll be ready! See you next week for more of the ADP Risers and Fallers series! On X, follow me, @JKeasy, as we can discuss moving ADPs, sleepers, and much more!
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