Unless something seismic happens, Fernando Mendoza will be a Las Vegas Raider rookie by the end of April. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and led the Indiana Hoosiers to a National Championship. All signs point to Fernando Mendoza being taken as the number one overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
It is never guaranteed that a top draft pick will become a star in the NFL. There is hope for Mendoza, as he is expected to get rookie playing time in his first year as a pro. The Raiders are ready to climb out of the slump it has experienced over the last few years. All the top online sportsbooks will have their own ideas of whether the Raiders will do well in 2026, and fantasy football head coaches will be monitoring the situation closely as well.
There are so many different kinds of fantasy football contests. Choosing one roster of players and sticking with it is not a good idea. But is Mendoza going to be someone you can rely on next season? What are the pros and cons of selecting athletes who are taken early on in the draft for your NFL fantasy teams?
Breakout Seasons
Any pro athlete can enjoy a breakout season, it doesn’t necessarily have to be their first year in the NFL. But there is something about a top college football athlete starting off in the professional game. As though he was born to be there. Watching a rookie be given a chance and then taking it with both hands is incredibly satisfying.
A quarterback like Fernando Mendoza could transform the fortunes of the Raiders this year. This is a team that has played just two postseason games since losing the Super Bowl in 2002. He could become an overnight franchise legend by performing to expectations. The kudos from backing a rookie to do well can be infectious.
Reduced Cost
Depending on the fantasy contest you prefer to play, a top draft pick like Mendoza could come at a cost. But most rookies will come at a knockdown price. When a salary cap is in place, rookies can be valued for their investment/value ratio.
It really depends on whether the rookie in question is going to be given a chance to play. Some first-year pros are there to learn their craft and provide depth. But others will be thrown in at the deep end as their new teams are desperate to turn around a franchise’s fortunes.
Long-Term Value
They don’t get quite the same level of attention as they used to, but dynasty or keeper league players absolutely need rookies to sustain a team over a series of seasons. When you are either keeping all of your roster or only adding a few athletes each year, a good rookie can really make the difference.
With these kinds of leagues, players need to have a more long-term way of thinking. The upcoming season is important, but not as much as the long-term value of an athlete. The value of rookies can sometimes appreciate rapidly, so it is crucial to choose your rookies wisely in order to stay in the game.
Lower Risk of Rookie Injury
A career in professional football is never guaranteed. There are plenty of outstanding prospects who never make it further than college, for a variety of reasons. But injuries can be suffered by anyone and can change the course of an athlete’s life. Injuries are part of the game, but it is also true that younger athletes are less likely to suffer career-ending injuries.
Football is an incredibly tough sport to play, and the longer an athlete plays in the NFL, the more likely they are to put too many miles on the clock. It is always harder coming back from an injury when you are older, and that means that you can usually count on a rookie to be able to come back quicker and stronger than before.
Limited Game Time
Even a top prospect like Fernando Mendoza might not receive immediate game time. The Raiders would seem to need a new QB, but those in charge may feel as though he needs to learn his craft first and plan on utilizing him as a backup to begin with. It is a big call throwing in a rookie straight away, especially if they play in a core position.
Jordan Love is a perfect example of a highly-rated college athlete taken in the first round of the draft, but then allowed the time to learn as a back-up and come through as a starter when he was ready. There may be limited game time for many rookies in the beginning, and that might affect your fantasy team recruitment strategy.
Meeting Expectations
Even if a rookie is immediately given the chance to shine, there is no guarantee they will perform. The college football game is much different from the pros. The expectations can be very high – especially for the higher draft picks – and that can prove to be too much for some.
There is also a huge learning curve for any athlete making the move from the NCAA to the NFL. After potentially spending years with the same coaches and systems, everything is new for rookies, and that can result in them not meeting the expectations of the teams that picked them on draft night.
Big Step Up to Pro Game
Just like any job, a promotion can be hugely rewarding but testing at the same time. Making the leap from college football to the NFL can sometimes be a chasm for rookies. There is no guarantee that even the best student athletes will become important athletes in the pro game. Or even receive the game time they deserve.
That is why it will always be a leap of faith selecting rookies. Even the high draft picks, for your fantasy teams. Take each athlete on his own measure, and whether there is a good chance of them actually playing. A rookie can be a fantasy football game-changer, but they come with their own risks.
