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Rookies versus Consistency – 2022

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Bob Lung presents the facts and figures on why drafting Rookies can be can very RISKY in the early rounds! You can follow or respond to him on Twitter at @bob_lung.

The one question that I get asked every year is “Why don’t you include rookies in your consistency analysis?” My answer has always been “They’re too inconsistent.” Or “College talent doesn’t always equate to NFL talent.” That normally leads to “Well, what about Odell Beckham, Jr. or LeVeon Bell or Saquon Barkley?” Good point.

So, I decided to back up my theory with facts. I accumulated the number of draft choices at the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) since 2010. For the past 12 years, there have been 428 of these players drafted in the first four rounds. I did only the first four rounds since that’s where most of the NFL starters come from. Yes, there are the Tom Brady’s of the world that are drafted in Round 6, but those are few and far between.

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