Every week, Colby Conway and Bob Lung use the Prop Bet Consistency Tool to help you win your Fantasy Football Prop Bets! Follow them @colbyconway and @bob_lung.
PROP IT LIKE IT’S HOT! Along with the podcast, there will be this article that highlights a little bit more of what Bob Lung (bob_lung) and I discussed on the podcast. Using our brand new Prop Bet tool, we can find some advantages on current lines, and find the best bets for us to make. Using a player’s consistency and prior history in similar situations, the tool will spit out a percentage based on the player’s past. Of course, other factors go into it, so you’ll need to be privy of those, but we can take a look at a player’s line and compare it to prior performances, to see how many times in a similar situation they surpassed the current Vegas line.
For example, if Deshaun Watson’s O/U for the week is 245.5 passing yards, the model will spit out the percentage of times he’s surpassed that number against a similar strength defense (good, average or bad) in the past. If he’s done it 72 percent of the time in the past, we can feel confident in taking the over in this matchup.
In this article, we will highlight our best bets of the weekend, and some of these weren’t mentioned on the podcast, which is an added perk to your VIP Subscription! Without further ado, let’s jump into it!
Disclaimer: All lines are at time of writing and are subject to change. Use the slider functionality with the prop bet tool to get the most up to date numbers as the lines change.
The prop bet tool loves the OVER for Joe Mixon at 72.5 rushing yards. Interesting? Sure. The Patriots defense is quite good, but Mixon has actually surpassed 72 rushing yards in four of his last five games. Only four running backs have surpassed this mark against New England this season, but the prop bet consistency tool says Mixon will be the fifth.
The prop bet tool loves the UNDER for Stefon Diggs at 71.5 receiving yards. Diggs has surpassed this mark just twice in the past five weeks, and this matchup with the Chargers isn’t exactly the easiest. The volume over the last few weeks certainly has been there for Diggs, so this is a risky under, but the tool says play the under here.
Personally, my favorite bet of the week involves DeAndre Hopkins. He’s scoring against Tennessee and you can take that to the bank. He averages over half of a touchdown per game for his career against the Titans, and he’s an absolute target hog. Even with Will Fuller likely back in the mix, that should help relieve Hopkins of a lot of double teams on Sunday afternoon. Hammer the over.
PROP BET TOOL BEST BETS
- Joe Mixon OVER 72.5 rushing yards
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 pass TDs
- Stefon Diggs UNDER 71.5 receiving yards
- James Conner UNDER 45.5 rushing yards.
BOB LUNG’S BEST BETS
- Ezekiel Elliott – OVER 109.5 total yards
COLBY CONWAY’S BEST BETS
- DeAndre Hopkins OVER 0.5 TDs
- Saquon Barkley OVER 0.5 TDs
- Chris Godwin OVER 5.5 receptions