Advanced Consistency Analytics: xConsistency – TE – 2017

Bob Lung takes you to the next level with xConsistency and how it can help separate the Tight Ends with similar consistency and identify who is more valuable to your Fantasy teams.  You can follow Bob on Twitter at @bob_lung.

Consistency in Fantasy Football is a very important factor in helping Fantasy owners make more informed decisions on who to draft and who to start/sit during the season. If you’re new to the Consistency concept in Fantasy Football, I highly recommend reading some of the Introduction articles located on the home page of www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. If you’re already a reader and follower of the site, then I would like to introduce you to a new twist to the Consistency world: xConsistency.

The xConsistency is similar to xERA in baseball as it’s identifying the “TRUE” Consistency value of the player. The formula is as follows:

               (Total Fantasy Points Scored / Total Games Played) X Clutch Rate

The xConsistency factor will separate players with similar Consistency but different Total Points Score due to either fewer games or Clutch performances with lesser points scored. For example: let’s look at Top 7 Tight Ends last year with similar Clutch Rates:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Rob Gronkowski

225.30

2

11

14

79%

2

12.71

1

Travis Kelce

234.80

1

12

15

80%

1

12.52

2

Zach Ertz

204.40

3

11

14

79%

3

11.53

3

Evan Engram

172.20

6

11

15

73%

5

8.38

4

Jack Doyle

173.00

4

10

15

67%

8

7.73

5

Delanie Walker

172.70

5

11

16

69%

6

7.45

6

Kyle Rudolph

158.20

8

12

16

75%

4

7.42

7


The big three of Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz are way ahead of the pack and are certainly in a tier of their own.  However, all three of them will warrant to be chosen in the late second or early third round (Gronk/Kelce) or in the fourth round (Ertz). Based on those current ADP’s, I’d lean towards Ertz. However, Engram and Walker are currently fifth round ADP’s. Good values? Yeah, not bad, but if you miss out on the big three, I believe Kyle Rudolph’s seventh round ADP provides much more value than Engram and Walker.

Now, we’re going to look at a group of running backs that are currently ranked between 13th and 24th in xConsistency and pick out some items that may surprise you.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Jimmy Graham

169.00

7

10

16

63%

9

6.65

8

Ben Watson

137.20

11

11

16

69%

7

5.92

9

Jason Witten

150.90

9

9

16

56%

11

5.28

10

Hunter Henry

126.90

14

8

14

57%

10

5.17

11

Jordan Reed

60.10

37

3

6

50%

14

5.01

12


The remaining group in the Top 12 may surprise you as Jimmy Graham, Hunter Henry, and Jordan Reed may be lower than you think and guys like Ben Watson Jason Witten may be higher than you think. I believe the important fact here is that these players may not be worth their current ADP. Graham, Henry and Reed are being drafted in the first seven rounds. While Graham in Green Bay is intriguing, we said the same thing about Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett and neither worked for fantasy purposes. I believe Graham should match his 2017 numbers in 2018. However, based on his ADP in the seventh round, I’d much rather have Kyle Rudolph in the same round. Hunter Henry has some upside, but again, until he proves it, I’ll pass on his late sixth round ADP at this point.

The group from #13 - #20 isn’t very exciting as you can see. If Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard didn’t have to share targets, that would benefit them. But they do, so they’re going to hurt each other’s consistency. Jared Cook and Eric Ebron weren’t bad in total points, but their constancy was practically non-existent. So, I would stay away from both of them in 2018.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Cameron Brate

143.10

10

8

16

50%

13

4.47

13

Vernon Davis

125.80

15

9

16

56%

12

4.40

14

Charles Clay

121.60

17

6

13

46%

15

4.30

15

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

103.70

21

6

13

46%

16

3.67

16

Tyler Kroft

124.40

16

7

16

44%

17

3.42

17

O.J. Howard

105.20

20

6

14

43%

18

3.23

18

Jared Cook

134.70

12

6

16

38%

19

3.20

19

Eric Ebron

134.40

13

6

16

38%

20

3.19

20


Here is the list of the 30 Top Tight Ends (ranked by xConsistency) for 2017:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Rob Gronkowski

225.30

2

11

14

79%

2

12.71

1

Travis Kelce

234.80

1

12

15

80%

1

12.52

2

Zach Ertz

204.40

3

11

14

79%

3

11.53

3

Evan Engram

172.20

6

11

15

73%

5

8.38

4

Jack Doyle

173.00

4

10

15

67%

8

7.73

5

Delanie Walker

172.70

5

11

16

69%

6

7.45

6

Kyle Rudolph

158.20

8

12

16

75%

4

7.42

7

Jimmy Graham

169.00

7

10

16

63%

9

6.65

8

Ben Watson

137.20

11

11

16

69%

7

5.92

9

Jason Witten

150.90

9

9

16

56%

11

5.28

10

Hunter Henry

126.90

14

8

14

57%

10

5.17

11

Jordan Reed

60.10

37

3

6

50%

14

5.01

12

Cameron Brate

143.10

10

8

16

50%

13

4.47

13

Vernon Davis

125.80

15

9

16

56%

12

4.40

14

Charles Clay

121.60

17

6

13

46%

15

4.30

15

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

103.70

21

6

13

46%

16

3.67

16

Tyler Kroft

124.40

16

7

16

44%

17

3.42

17

O.J. Howard

105.20

20

6

14

43%

18

3.23

18

Jared Cook

134.70

12

6

16

38%

19

3.20

19

Eric Ebron

134.40

13

6

16

38%

20

3.19

20

Zach Miller

54.70

38

3

8

38%

21

2.60

21

Julius Thomas

97.80

24

5

14

36%

22

2.51

22

George Kittle

106.50

19

5

15

33%

23

2.34

23

Austin Hooper

119.60

18

5

16

31%

27

2.32

24

Martellus Bennett

60.00

44

3

9

33%

25

2.20

25

Ricky Seals-Jones

50.10

43

2

7

29%

30

2.08

26

A.J. Derby

53.40

40

3

9

33%

26

1.96

27

David Njoku

97.90

23

5

16

31%

28

1.90

28

Trey Burton

77.80

30

5

15

33%

24

1.71

29

Coby Fleener

63.50

34

3

11

27%

32

1.56

30


Summary
The xConsistency formula and 2017 chart above helps provide a more truer value for Consistency and its role in helping Fantasy owners find a new edge in their draft planning. The Clutch Rate isn’t dead by any stretch and should continue to be used in your analysis during your draft prep and weekly start/sit decisions. I’d love to hear your feedback regarding the xConsistency calculation. You can hit me up on Twitter @bob_lung or email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Thanks as always for reading and following!

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