Fantasy Football Consistency: Standard Scoring Differences – TE

Josh Brickner shows you the effect of Standard scoring versus PPR scoring when evaluating the Consistency of Tight Ends in 2017. Who improved and who declined may surprise you!

The TE position was a wasteland for fantasy points in 2017 as Travis Kelce (32) and Rob Gronkowski (36) were the only two tight-ends to finish inside the Top 50 in PPR scoring. Therefore, fantasy owners of Jared Cook were elated when the Packers TE scored 16 and 20 PPR points in Weeks 7 and 9 respectively. Unfortunately, those same owners were equally as disappointed when Cook was held under 2 PPR points during the stretch run of Weeks 12 & 13.  Boom/Bust players like Cook are destructive to the playoff chances of owners in H2H fantasy leagues where your overall record determines whether or not you get a ticket to the dance.

You want to draft players on your team who are consistent fantasy performers from week to week. If you’re unfamiliar with the Consistency Rankings and Clutch Reports over at Big Guy Fantasy sports, I recommend you take a look. You will not be disappointed. Bob Lung has been looking at consistency in fantasy football for 15 years, but from a mostly PPR scoring lens. Well, the times they are a changin’. The last two weeks, I examined the difference in RB and WR consistency between PPR and Standard (non-PPR) scoring formats. Today, we will analyze the changes in the consistency of the TE position when the scoring changes from PPR to Standard.

 

TE Consistency: PPR vs Standard Scoring

For my breakdown, I compared the Clutch Reports of 71 TEs in Standard and PPR scoring methods. Of the 71 TEs evaluated; 40 (56%) saw no change in their Clutch Rate (CR) even with the scoring format changed from PPR to Standard. The scoring change did have an impact on TE consistency as 22 TEs (31%) saw a negative regression in their CR when switching from PPR to Standard scoring while 9 (13%) saw a CR increase when owners aren’t awarded a point per catch. It’s not surprising at a position like TE, where catching passes is (almost) the only avenue for fantasy production, that over double the amount of TEs saw a decrease in their Clutch Rate than those who saw a positive increase. The consistency rates of the majority of 2017’s starting TEs were impacted in Standard scoring leagues.

 

The Positive

Results Sorted by Overall Fantasy Performance (FP Rank)

 

Name

Team

FP

FP Rank

CG

GP

CG Change

Standard CR

CR Change

Graham,Jimmy

SEA

112

4

11

16

1

69%

6

Celek,Garrett

SF

57.6

23

4

16

1

25%

6

OLeary,Nick

BUF

44.2

31

5

15

2

33%

13

Willson,Luke

SEA

39.3

35

4

16

1

25%

6

Everett,Gerald

LAR

36.4

37

3

16

1

19%

6

Higbee,Tyler

LAR

35.5

40

2

16

1

13%

7

Shaheen,Adam

CHI

30.7

44

3

12

1

25%

8

Celek,Brent

PHI

19

59

1

16

1

6%

6

Hill,Josh

NO

18.5

60

1

16

1

6%

6

 


There weren’t many TEs who actually saw their consistency improve when moving from PPR to Standard scoring with a notable exception. Jimmy Graham, and his league-leading 10 touchdowns from the TE spot, earned his Standard league owners an extra Clutch Game (CG) than their PPR counterparts. Graham is an unrestricted FA this offseason and whatever team he ends up on should continue to feature the big-bodied, 6-7 former Miami (FL) basketball star near the goal line (24 red zone targets in 2017). Graham signing with a team who can properly utilize his talents (granted he’s healthy) will only benefit Standard league owners as JG should improve on his lowest receiving yardage total (520) since his 2010 rookie season. A return to Graham’s average yardage totals per year from 2014-2016 (806) would help JG improve his already Good (69%) Standard CR.

 

The Negative

Results Sorted by Overall Fantasy Performance (FP Rank)

 

Name

Team

FP

FP Rank

CG

GP

CG Change

Standard CR

CR Change

Kelce,Travis

KC

151.8

2

10

15

-2

67%

-13

Engram,Evan

NYG

108.2

5

9

15

-2

60%

-13

Rudolph,Kyle

MIN

101.2

6

8

16

-4

50%

-25

Walker,Delanie

TEN

98.7

7

10

16

-1

63%

-6

Brate,Cameron

TB

95.1

8

7

16

-1

44%

-6

Doyle,Jack

IND

93

9

7

15

-3

47%

-20

Witten,Jason

DAL

86.9

10

7

16

-2

44%

-12

Kroft,Tyler

CIN

82.4

12

6

16

-1

38%

-6

Watson,Ben

BAL

76.2

17

6

16

-5

38%

-31

Hooper,Austin

ATL

70.6

19

3

16

-2

19%

-12

Kittle,George

SF

63.5

21

4

15

-1

27%

-6

Lewis,Mercedes

JAX

61.8

22

3

16

-1

19%

-6

Burton,Trey

PHI

54.8

26

4

15

-1

27%

-6

Seferian-Jenkins,Austin

NYJ

53.7

27

4

13

-2

31%

-15

Gates,Antonio

LAC

49.6

29

3

16

-1

19%

-6

DeValve,Seth

CLE

44.9

30

3

16

-1

19%

-6

Gresham,Jermaine

ARI

44.2

31

2

14

-1

14%

-7

Anderson,Stephen

HOU

40.2

34

2

15

-1

13%

-7

Fells,Darren

DET

35.7

39

2

16

-1

13%

-6

Miller,Zach

CHI

33.7

42

2

8

-1

25%

-13

Reed,Jordan

WAS

33.1

43

1

6

-2

17%

-33

Bennett,Martellus

GB

23.7

53

1

7

-2

14%

-29

 

The negative effect the change from PPR to Standard scoring has on TE consistency cannot be overstated as 8 of the Top 12 TEs of 2017 saw a decrease in their CR with the scoring change. In fact, many of the 2017 TE Consistency award winners in PPR dropped the ball for their Standard league owners. Best Value Consistency TE Ben Watson loses five (!) Clutch Games and his Clutch Rate craters from Good (69%) to Awful (38%) in Standard scoring due to his lack of TDs (4) in 2017. TE Clutch MVP Travis Kelce loses two CGs and watches his #1 ranked PPR Clutch Rate of 80% take a dip to 67% in non-PPR scoring. TE Clutch Rookie of the Year Evan Engram loses two CGs and sees his CR drops from Very Good (73%) to Good (60%) in Standard leagues.

There were two Top 10 TEs who might have cost their Standard league owners a playoff spot. Kyle Rudolph loses four Clutch Games in Standard leagues and sees his CR plummet from Very Good (75%) to  below the Mendoza consistency line (50%). Jack Doyle loses three CGs and watches his CR dive from Good at 67% to an unimpressive 47%. Finally, while Delanie Walker loses a CG when switching from PPR to Standard scoring, his CR remains Good (63%).

 

Conclusions for 2018

A slight dip in TE consistency is expected when switching to a non-PPR scoring format. However, when two-thirds of the Top 12 TEs saw their Clutch Rate decline, Standard league owners must take notice, but it’s crucial they not overreact. Yes, both Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz saw their Clutch Rate (79%) remain consistent in both PPR and Standard (Non-PPR) leagues. However, there’s no reason to ever draft the oft-questionable Gronk at his current ADP of 2.07 even if he doesn’t retire. Also, while Ertz’s price tag is much more reasonable (5.02), Standard league owners cannot afford to waste one of their first five picks on a tight end. Owners should look to leave the first five picks of their Standard league drafts with three RBs (with one taken in Round 1 and another taken in Round 2 or 3) and two WRs.

Standard league owners should look for the 2017 version of Zach Ertz who was drafted last year at 8.04 and provided Top 3 production. Jimmy Graham (8.10) could be the 2018 version of Ertz who provides his owners with championship-winning production at an amazing value. This allows the Standard league owner to build up strength and depth at the key skill positions early in drafts and still lockdown a quality TE.

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