Advanced Consistency Analytics: xConsistency – RB – 2017

Bob Lung takes you to the next level with xConsistency and how it can help separate the Running Backs with similar consistency and identify who is more valuable to your Fantasy teams.  You can follow Bob on Twitter at @bob_lung.

Consistency in Fantasy Football is a very important factor in helping Fantasy owners make more informed decisions on who to draft and who to start/sit during the season. If you’re new to the Consistency concept in Fantasy Football, I highly recommend reading some of the Introduction articles located on the home page of www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. If you’re already a reader and follower of the site, then I would like to introduce you to a new twist to the Consistency world: xConsistency.

The xConsistency is similar to xERA in baseball as it’s identifying the “TRUE” Consistency value of the player. The formula is as follows:

               (Total Fantasy Points Scored / Total Games Played) X Clutch Rate

The xConsistency factor will separate two players with similar Consistency but different Total Points Score due to either fewer games or Clutch performances with lesser points scored. For example: let’s look at two players last year with similar Clutch Rates:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Todd Gurley

387.30

1

14

15

93%

1

24.01

1

LeVeon Bell

345.60

2

14

15

93%

2

21.43

2

Ezekiel Elliott

205.20

12

9

10

90%

3

18.47

3


As we look at the Top 3 last season in Clutch Rating, we note that Ezekiel Elliott missed six games due to the suspension. Therefore, he ended the season ranked only 12th in total points. However, with the xConsistency, we see he would have ranked third overall as well. He’s still almost three points below LeVeon Bell and over five points below Gurley. However, he’s almost three points ahead of fourth place.

Now, we’re going to look at a group of running backs that are currently ranked between fourth and 10th in xConsistency and pick out some items that may surprise you.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Alvin Kamara

315.40

3

13

16

81%

5

15.97

4

Leonard Fournette

230.20

10

11

13

85%

4

15.05

5

Melvin Gordon

288.10

5

13

16

81%

6

14.59

6

Mark Ingram

284.00

6

12

16

75%

7

13.31

7

Kareem Hunt

297.20

4

11

16

69%

12

12.82

8

Dalvin Cook

67.40

72

3

4

75%

11

12.64

9

LeSean McCoy

265.60

7

12

16

75%

8

12.45

10

Carlos Hyde

236.00

8

12

16

75%

9

11.06

11

Duke Johnson

220.10

11

12

16

75%

10

10.32

12


Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette and Melvin Gordon were in the 80-85% Clutch Rate area. However, even though Fournette had a higher Clutch Rate at 85%, he’s falls in between Kamara and Gordon in xConsistency, due to his annualized Fantasy Points falling between the two. However, these three are way ahead of the seventh-place ranked player in Mark Ingram.

The cluster of running backs at 75% Clutch Rate show the difference how the xConsistency separates them showing Ingram is much more valuable than Duke Johnson by almost three points per game. While Kareem Hunt has only a 69% Clutch Rate, his total Fantasy points ranking of fourth place forces his xConsistency rate to be ahead of four of the backs at 75% consistency.  While I’m not 100% sold on Dalvin Cook being this good. His xConsistency shows he would have ranked ninth overall if he played out all 16 games. I believe he’s a late RB1 or early RB2 for this season.

Looking at the next wave of running backs between 13 – 20 in xConsistency, we see Christian McCaffrey ranked 13th with a 69% Clutch Rate but Chris Thompson and Devonta Freeman not far behind him. They played in less games, but their points per game inflated their xConsistency to over 9.24. The rest of the players in this collection have many, many questions marks heading into 2018. Keep an eye on all of their situation headed into this year.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Christian McCaffrey

230.60

9

11

16

69%

13

9.94

13

Chris Thompson

155.40

27

6

10

60%

20

9.32

14

Devonta Freeman

202.20

13

9

14

64%

15

9.24

15

Rex Burkhead

129.80

39

6

10

60%

21

7.79

16

Lamar Miller

193.50

16

10

16

63%

16

7.62

17

Frank Gore

173.60

20

10

16

63%

17

6.84

18

Tevin Coleman

167.90

22

9

15

60%

18

6.72

19

Marshawn Lynch

166.30

23

9

15

60%

19

6.65

20


Here is the list of the 60 Top Running Backs (ranked by xConsistency) for 2017:

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

Rank

xCon

Rank

Todd Gurley

387.30

1

14

15

93%

1

24.01

1

LeVeon Bell

345.60

2

14

15

93%

2

21.43

2

Ezekiel Elliott

205.20

12

9

10

90%

3

18.47

3

Alvin Kamara

315.40

3

13

16

81%

5

15.97

4

Leonard Fournette

230.20

10

11

13

85%

4

15.05

5

Melvin Gordon

288.10

5

13

16

81%

6

14.59

6

Mark Ingram

284.00

6

12

16

75%

7

13.31

7

Kareem Hunt

297.20

4

11

16

69%

12

12.82

8

Dalvin Cook

67.40

72

3

4

75%

11

12.64

9

LeSean McCoy

265.60

7

12

16

75%

8

12.45

10

Carlos Hyde

236.00

8

12

16

75%

9

11.06

11

Duke Johnson

220.10

11

12

16

75%

10

10.32

12

Christian McCaffrey

230.60

9

11

16

69%

13

9.94

13

Chris Thompson

155.40

27

6

10

60%

20

9.32

14

Devonta Freeman

202.20

13

9

14

64%

15

9.24

15

Rex Burkhead

129.80

39

6

10

60%

21

7.79

16

Lamar Miller

193.50

16

10

16

63%

16

7.62

17

Frank Gore

173.60

20

10

16

63%

17

6.84

18

Tevin Coleman

167.90

22

9

15

60%

18

6.72

19

Marshawn Lynch

166.30

23

9

15

60%

19

6.65

20

Jordan Howard

201.50

14

8

16

50%

22

6.30

21

Dion Lewis

197.00

15

8

16

50%

23

6.16

22

Ty Montgomery

91.60

52

4

8

50%

27

5.73

23

DeMarco Murray

173.50

21

7

15

47%

31

5.44

24

Joe Mixon

145.30

31

7

14

50%

24

5.19

25

Matt Forte

123.40

41

6

12

50%

26

5.14

26

Jay Ajayi

139.10

35

7

14

50%

25

4.97

27

Chris Carson

39.70

86

2

4

50%

29

4.96

28

Alex Collins

175.00

18

6

15

40%

36

4.67

29

Andre Ellington

74.00

65

4

8

50%

28

4.63

30

Latavius Murray

157.40

25

7

16

44%

32

4.33

31

Jerick McKinnon

180.10

17

6

16

38%

38

4.28

32

Giovani Bernard

151.70

28

7

16

44%

33

4.17

33

C.J. Anderson

174.40

19

6

16

38%

39

4.14

34

James White

134.00

38

6

14

43%

35

4.12

35

Kenyan Drake

144.30

32

7

16

44%

34

3.97

36

Javorius Allen

166.10

24

6

16

38%

40

3.94

37

Tarik Cohen

148.65

29

6

16

38%

41

3.53

38

Isaiah Crowell

143.50

33

6

16

38%

42

3.41

39

Jamaal Williams

142.80

34

6

16

38%

43

3.39

40

Ameer Abdullah

126.40

40

5

14

36%

45

3.25

41

Wayne Gallman

106.90

46

5

13

38%

44

3.12

42

Theo Riddick

156.00

26

5

16

31%

49

3.02

43

Orleans Darkwa

135.70

36

5

15

33%

47

2.99

44

T.J. Yeldon

89.70

54

3

10

30%

52

2.69

45

Marlon Mack

103.30

48

5

14

36%

46

2.66

46

Bilal Powell

147.20

30

4

15

27%

54

2.65

47

Derrick Henry

135.00

37

5

16

31%

50

2.62

48

Mike Gillislee

70.80

70

3

9

33%

48

2.60

49

Adrian Peterson

82.90

59

3

10

30%

53

2.49

50

Terrance West

30.10

92

2

5

40%

37

2.41

51

Devontae Booker

93.40

49

4

13

31%

51

2.23

52

Jonathan Stewart

123.20

42

4

15

27%

55

2.22

53

Austin Ekeler

107.10

45

4

15

27%

56

1.93

54

Doug Martin

76.00

63

3

11

27%

57

1.87

55

Samaje Perine

112.50

43

4

16

25%

58

1.76

56

LeGarrette Blount

107.60

44

4

16

25%

59

1.68

57

Aaron Jones

80.00

60

3

12

25%

62

1.67

58

Matt Breida

103.50

47

4

16

25%

60

1.62

59

Jalen Richard

92.10

51

4

16

25%

61

1.44

60


Summary

The xConsistency formula and 2017 chart above helps provide a more truer value for Consistency and its role in helping Fantasy owners find a new edge in their draft planning. The Clutch Rate isn’t dead by any stretch and should continue to be used in your analysis during your draft prep and weekly start/sit decisions. I’d love to hear your feedback regarding the xConsistency calculation. You can hit me up on Twitter @bob_lung or email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Thanks as always for reading and following!

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