Fantasy Football Consistency: Standard Scoring Differences – RB

Josh Brickner shows you the effect of Standard scoring versus PPR scoring when evaluating the Consistency of Running Backs in 2017. Who improved and who declined may surprise you!

Fantasy owners of Bears RB Jordan Howard were thrilled this season with his Week 3 & 14 performances where he scored 33 and 28 PPR points respectively. However, these same owners quivered with fear in their Week 12 & 13 matchups when the Bears RB produced back-to-back four-point clunkers (these owners might not even have been playing in Week 14). Boom/Bust players like Howard are devastating to the playoff chances of owners in H2H fantasy leagues where your overall record determines whether or not you get a ticket to the dance.

You want to draft players on your team who are consistent fantasy performers from week to week. If you’re unfamiliar with the Consistency Rankings and Clutch Reports over at Big Guy Fantasy sports, I recommend you take a look. You will not be disappointed. Bob Lung has been looking at consistency in fantasy football for 15 years, but mostly through a PPR scoring lens. Well, that changes today. For the first time, we will be looking at the difference in RB consistency between PPR and Standard (non-PPR) scoring formats.

RB Consistency: PPR vs Standard Scoring

For our purposes, we compared the Clutch Report of 76 RBs in standard and PPR scoring methods. Of the 76 RBs evaluated; 35 (46%) saw no change in their Clutch Rate (CR) even with the scoring format changed. The scoring change did have an impact on RB consistency as 27 RBs (36%) saw a negative regression in their CR when switching from PPR to Standard scoring while 14 (18%) saw a CR increase when owners aren’t awarded a point per catch. It’s not surprising nearly double the amount of RBs saw a decrease in their CR than RBs who saw a positive increase. The consistency rates of some 2017 workhorse RBs were impacted in Standard scoring leagues.

The Positive

Results Sorted by Overall Fantasy Performance (FP Rank)

Name

Team

FP

FP Rank

CG

GP

CG Change

Standard CR

CR Change

Lewis,Dion

NE

165

13

9

16

1

56%

6%

Anderson,C.J.

DEN

146.4

17

7

16

1

44%

6%

Lynch,Marshawn

OAK

146.3

18

10

15

1

67%

7%

Coleman,Tevin

ATL

140.9

22

10

15

1

67%

7%

Powell,Bilal

NYJ

124.2

25

6

15

2

40%

13%

Henry,Derrick

TEN

124

26

6

16

1

38%

7%

Darkwa,Orleans

NYG

116.7

29

6

15

1

40%

7%

Thompson,Chris

WAS

116.4

30

7

10

1

70%

10%

Stewart,Jonathan

CAR

115.2

33

6

15

2

40%

13%

Abdullah,Ameer

DET

101.4

37

7

14

2

50%

14%

Blount,LeGarrette

PHI

99.6

39

5

16

1

31%

6%

Smith,Rod

DAL

73.4

48

4

15

1

27%

7%

West,Charcandrick

KC

46.2

69

3

13

2

23%

15%

Green,Tion

DET

29.9

86

2

5

1

40%

20%


While not as many impact RBs saw an affirmative change in their CR, there are some notable exceptions. Both Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch and Tevin Coleman awarded Standard league owners with an additional Clutch Game (CG) than their PPR counterparts. Chris Thompson, long thought of as simply a PPR scat back, gains an extra CG and goes from a good (60%) to very good (70%) CR in Standard scoring. Nobody will advocate for Ameer Abdullah or Jonathan Stewart as consistency draft-day targets, but both earn two additional CGs in standard scoring.

Random Observation- Dion Lewis

While New England Patriot RBs are the antithesis of fantasy football consistency, the performance by Dion Lewis in the second half of the season cannot be ignored.  Lewis produced a CG in seven of his final eight games (88%) for an Excellent Clutch Rate. Lewis is a free-agent this offseason and this back-nine surge showcasing his dual-threat abilities will not go unnoticed. Either Lewis goes to an offense/head coach that doesn’t hate your fantasy team for a more featured role... or he resigns with the Patriots. Call me a hopeless optimist (Bob Lung might be emailing me a termination notice for even suggesting this), but MAYBE Lewis showed Belichick enough to earn the lead RB role in NE next season and can continue this impressive wave of consistency. 

The Negative

Results Sorted by Overall Fantasy Performance (FP Rank)

Name

Team

FP

FP Rank

CG

GP

CG Change

Standard CR

CR Change

Ingram,Mark

NO

226

6

10

16

-2

63%

-12%

McCoy,LeSean

BUF

206.6

7

10

16

-2

63%

-12%

Hyde,Carlos

SF

177

11

10

16

-2

63%

-12%

Freeman,Devonta

ATL

166.2

12

8

14

-1

57%

-7%

Miller,Lamar

HOU

157.5

14

9

16

-1

56%

-7%

McCaffrey,Christian

CAR

150.6

16

9

16

-2

56%

-13%

Johnson,Duke

CLE

146.1

19

9

16

-3

56%

-19%

Gore,Frank

IND

144.6

20

8

16

-2

50%

-13%

Murray,DeMarco

TEN

134.5

23

5

15

-2

33%

-14%

McKinnon,Jerick

MIN

129.1

24

5

16

-1

31%

-7%

Allen,Javorius

BAL

120.1

27

4

16

-2

25%

-13%

Crowell,Isaiah

CLE

115.5

31

4

16

-2

25%

-13%

Bernard,Giovani

CIN

108.7

35

6

16

-1

38%

-6%

Riddick,Theo

DET

103

36

4

16

-1

25%

-6%

Cohen,Tarik

CHI

95.7

40

5

16

-1

31%

-7%

Perine,Samaje

WAS

90.5

41

3

16

-1

19%

-6%

Forte,Matt

NYJ

85.4

42

3

12

-3

25%

-25%

Mack,Marlon

IND

82.3

44

4

14

-1

29%

-7%

White,James

NE

78

47

3

14

-3

21%

-22%

Gallman,Wayne

NYG

72.9

49

3

13

-2

23%

-15%

Montgomery,Ty

GB

68.6

53

3

8

-1

38%

-12%

Richard,Jalen

OAK

65.1

57

2

16

-2

13%

-12%

Booker,Devontae

DEN

63.4

59

2

13

-2

15%

-16%

Yeldon,T.J.

JAX

59.7

62

2

10

-1

20%

-10%

Ajayi,Jay

MIA

53.2

65

2

7

-1

29%

-14%

Ellington,Andre

ARI

41

72

2

8

-2

25%

-25%

Prosise,C.J.

SEA

11

111

0

5

-1

0%

-20%


First and foremost, your 2017 RB Clutch Comeback Player of the Year, Mark Ingram, may be forcibly removed from his throne by his Standard league owners as they were rewarded with two less CGs than their PPR fellows. Ingram joins Carlos Hyde and LeSean McCoy as Top 12 RBS whom were credited with two less CGs in Standard scoring and saw their CR drop from Very Good (75%) to Good (63%). Both Christian McCaffrey (3rd) and Duke Johnson Jr. (4th) finished in the Top 5 in RB receptions in 2017. Therefore, it should come as no shock both saw their CR take a dive in Standard leagues.  CMC produced two less CGs in non-PPR scoring and saw his Good (69%) CR vanish. Duke Johnson Jr. takes the hardest hit of all as he goes from Best Value Clutch RB of 2017 with a Very Good 75% CR in PPR leagues to yielding three less CGs in Standard leagues with an unimpressive 57% CR.

Conclusion

A slight dip in RB consistency is expected when switching to a non-PPR scoring format. However, when three of the top twelve RBs saw a significant decline in their CR, Standard league owners should take notice. It should be noted the CRs of Todd Gurley (93%), Le’Veon Bell (93%), Zeke Elliot (90%), Leonard Fournette (85%), Melvin Gordon (81%), and Alvin Kamara (81%) saw their CR remain similar no matter the scoring format. These stud RBs will go in the first-early second round of drafts and it is imperative for Standard league owners to grab one of them. In a PPR league, you can be creative and draft two stud WRs or take a shot on Gronk in the first few rounds knowing receiving-backs like Duke or CMC will be available in the middle rounds. An owner in a Standard league is not afforded this luxury and must draft one of these RBs to field a consistent team. A loss of a Clutch Game or two might not be a scary prospect now, but I promise you, it will be when it decides whether or not you make the playoffs.

BGFS Daily Fantasy Blast

Sign up for a free Daily Fantasy Blast from the experts at Big Guy Fantasy Sports! Don't miss out on the best analysis in the business! Where Fantasy gets REAL!

captcha 

Site Login

Captcha

PODCASTS

Every week Bob Lung and Ron Rigney of Big Guy Fantasy Sports tell you how Consistency can help you win in Fantasy Football!

Expert Leagues