Advanced Consistency Analytics: xConsistency – QB – 2017

Bob Lung takes you to the next level with xConsistency and how it can help separate the Quarterbacks with similar consistency and identify who is more valuable to your Fantasy teams.  You can follow Bob on Twitter at @bob_lung.

Consistency in Fantasy Football is a very important factor in helping Fantasy owners make more informed decisions on who to draft and who to start/sit during the season. If you’re new to the Consistency concept in Fantasy Football, I highly recommend reading some of the Introduction articles located on the home page of www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. If you’re already a reader and follower of the site, then I would like to introduce you to a new twist to the Consistency world: xConsistency.

The xConsistency is similar to xERA in baseball as it’s identifying the “TRUE” Consistency value of the player. The formula is as follows:

               (Total Fantasy Points Scored / Total Games Played) X Clutch Rate

The xConsistency factor will separate two players with similar Consistency but different Total Points Score due to either fewer games or Clutch performances with lesser points scored. For example: let’s take a look at two players last year with similar Clutch Rates:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

3

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

4

16.97

4


Both Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz earned a 69% Clutch Rate in 2017. With Wentz missing three games, the obvious difference in Total Points Scored makes it look like Wilson is a much better Fantasy player. However, the xConsistency calculation shows that Wentz has an xConsistency factor of 16.97, which is quite close to Wilson’s xConsistency factor of 17.28. The xConsistency annualizes Wentz’s points scored into 16 games showing that he’s just as valuable in Fantasy.

Now, we’re going to look at a group of quarterbacks that are currently ranked between third and 10th in xConsistency and pick out some items that may surprise you.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

4

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

5

16.97

4

Matthew Stafford

338.10

6

12

16

75%

3

15.85

5

Ben Roethlisberger

315.25

9

10

15

67%

7

14.08

6

Tom Brady

351.60

2

10

16

63%

9

13.84

7

Jameis Winston

259.70

18

9

13

69%

6

13.78

8

Alex Smith

342.60

4

8

15

53%

15

12.11

9

Jimmy Garoppolo

108.10

34

4

6

67%

8

12.07

10


First off, Clutch Rate is not always the end all for determining Fantasy value. As you will note from Matthew Stafford. Stafford was the most Consistent quarterback in 2017 (who played in at least 12 + games). His 75% Clutch Rate led the quarterbacks. However, the xConsistency shows that since his Total Points were not as high on a per game basis, his xConsistency is less than Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz.  On the other side of that, Alex Smith only had a 53% Clutch Rate, but his Total Points scored made up for some that discrepancy and he ended the year ranked ninth in xConsistency.

As I mentioned before about players missing games and how the xConsistency factor annualizes the player for 16 games and shows his true value if he played a full season, Jameis Winston having an xConsistency factor very close to Tom Brady may surprise folks. Winston has continued to improve his xConsistency since his rookie year and is actually ranked 12th in xConsistency over the past three years.

One last item to note in the chart above is Jimmy Garoppolo. His end-of-year performance has many Fantasy owners drooling over his potential ion 2018. The xConsistency shows that his numbers annualized over 16 games ranks him 10th for 2017. Impressive, but not Top 5! Be careful, not to reach too high for him in 2018.

Now let’s add in the two players who were having big years but missed the rest of the season due to injuries. As you can see, DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers take the top two spots. The biggest surprise is the extreme xConsistency for Watson. It’s almost five points ahead of Rodgers and over six points ahead of Wilson. Aaron Rodgers can and will maintain this kind of xConsistency in 2018. The biggest question is can Watson maintain his? I have seen ADP’s of 2.10 for Watson and 3.05 for Rodgers so far in 2018. I’m sorry but there’s no way, I can take ANY quarterback in the second round. Watson’s value is too much for me, even though his xConsistency shows potential.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Deshaun Watson

191.85

27

6

7

86%

1

23.57

1

Aaron Rodgers

154.35

31

6

7

86%

2

18.96

2

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

4

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

5

16.97

4

Matthew Stafford

338.10

6

12

16

75%

3

15.85

5

Ben Roethlisberger

315.25

9

10

15

67%

7

14.08

6

Tom Brady

351.60

2

10

16

63%

9

13.84

7

Jameis Winston

259.70

18

9

13

69%

6

13.78

8

Alex Smith

342.60

4

8

15

53%

15

12.11

9

Jimmy Garoppolo

108.10

34

4

6

67%

8

12.07

10


Here is the list of the Top 40 Quarterbacks (ranked by xConsistency) for 2017:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Deshaun Watson

191.85

27

6

7

86%

1

23.57

1

Aaron Rodgers

154.35

31

6

7

86%

2

18.96

2

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

4

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

5

16.97

4

Matthew Stafford

338.10

6

12

16

75%

3

15.85

5

Ben Roethlisberger

315.25

9

10

15

67%

7

14.08

6

Tom Brady

351.60

2

10

16

63%

9

13.84

7

Jameis Winston

259.70

18

9

13

69%

6

13.78

8

Alex Smith

342.60

4

8

15

53%

15

12.11

9

Jimmy Garoppolo

108.10

34

4

6

67%

8

12.07

10

Kirk Cousins

342.10

5

9

16

56%

11

11.97

11

Philip Rivers

327.55

7

9

16

56%

12

11.46

12

Dak Prescott

312.95

11

9

16

56%

13

10.95

13

Jared Goff

306.55

12

8

15

53%

16

10.83

14

Carson Palmer

129.15

32

4

7

57%

10

10.52

15

Blake Bortles

299.55

13

9

16

56%

14

10.48

16

Case Keenum

280.35

15

8

15

53%

17

9.91

17

Drew Brees

314.10

10

8

16

50%

18

9.82

18

Cam Newton

348.50

3

7

16

44%

24

9.58

19

C.J. Beathard

113.10

33

3

6

50%

19

9.43

20

Matt Ryan

287.05

14

8

16

50%

20

8.97

21

Josh McCown

251.70

21

6

13

46%

23

8.91

22

Marcus Mariota

259.80

17

7

15

47%

22

8.14

23

Sam Bradford

30.80

47

1

2

50%

21

7.70

24

Andy Dalton

263.90

16

7

16

44%

25

7.26

25

Tyrod Taylor

258.65

19

6

15

40%

26

6.90

26

Blaine Gabbert

80.50

39

2

5

40%

27

6.44

27

DeShone Kizer

238.60

24

6

15

40%

28

6.36

28

Derek Carr

256.40

20

5

15

33%

29

5.64

29

Jacoby Brissett

249.90

22

5

16

31%

32

4.84

30

Ryan Fitzpatrick

87.75

35

2

6

33%

30

4.83

31

Brian Hoyer

80.95

38

2

6

33%

31

4.45

32

Eli Manning

245.00

23

4

15

27%

34

4.41

33

Joe Flacco

227.45

25

5

16

31%

33

4.41

34

Trevor Siemian

166.95

29

3

11

27%

35

4.10

35

Brett Hundley

154.80

30

3

12

25%

36

3.23

36

Mitchell Trubisky

167.75

28

3

13

23%

40

2.97

37


Summary

The xConsistency formula and 2017 chart above helps provide a more truer value for Consistency and its role in helping Fantasy owners find a new edge in their draft planning. The Clutch Rate isn’t dead by any stretch and should continue to be used in your analysis during your draft prep and weekly start/sit decisions. I’d love to hear your feedback regarding the xConsistency calculation. You can hit me up on Twitter @bob_lung or email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Thanks as always for reading and following!

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