Fantasy Football Consistency: 4pt vs 6pt Pass TD Scoring Differences – QB

Josh Brickner shows you the effect of 6 points versus 4 point per passing touchdown when evaluating the Consistency of Quarterbacks in 2017. Who improved and who declined may surprise you! Follow Josh on Twitter @joshbrickner!

Fantasy owners who chose Cam Newton to be their starting signal caller last season where thrilled during Weeks Four and Ten when the Carolina Panther scored 37 and 38 points respectively. Cam left those same owners climbing out of a hole with lackluster 13-point performances in Weeks 3 & 7. Inconsistent, boom/bust players like Newton can derail the seasons of fantasy players in head-to head leagues where one game often separates the contenders from the pretenders.

Here at Big Guy Fantasy Sports, consistency is our business.  If you’re unfamiliar with the Consistency Rankings and Clutch Reports at BGFS, I recommend you take a look. Basically, a player is consistent (earns a Clutch Game) when he meets or exceeds the Clutch Factor (average league score at that position) in a given week. A player’s Clutch Rating (CR) is based on the percentage of games he earned a Clutch Game (CG) against the number of games played.  Bob Lung has been looking at consistency in fantasy football for 15 years at the QB position, but focusing primarily on leagues that award four points per passing TD. Until now. I will look at the difference in consistency between leagues where QBs are given six-points per pass TD against those leagues that only award four points.

QB Consistency: 6pt vs 4pt Passing TD Leagues

I compared the Clutch Reports of 49 QBs in 4pt and 6pt passing TD scoring methods. Of the 49 QBs evaluated; 31 (63%) saw no change in their Clutch Rate (CR) even with the scoring format changed. While the majority saw no change in their CR, the scoring change did have an impact on QB consistency as 10 QBs (21%) saw a negative regression in their CR when switching from 4pt to 6pt passing TDs, comparatively 8 (16%) saw a CR increase when owners were granted an extra two points per passing touchdown.

The Positive

Name

Team

Fantasy Points

Fantasy Points Rank

Clutch Games

Games Played

Clutch Game Change

6 Point TD Clutch Rate

Change

Cousins,Kirk

WAS

396.1

4

10

16

1

63%

7%

Wentz,Carson

PHI

385.7

7

11

13

2

85%

16%

Rivers,Philip

LAC

383.6

8

10

16

1

63%

7%

Goff,Jared

LAR

362.6

10

9

15

1

60%

7%

Dalton,Andy

CIN

313.9

16

8

16

1

50%

6%

Manning,Eli

NYG

283

22

6

15

2

40%

13%

Flacco,Joe

BAL

263.5

24

6

16

1

38%

7%

Cutler,Jay

MIA

236.5

26

4

14

2

29%

15%


This shows four of the top twelve QBs in fantasy scoring last season saw their consistency improve when passing TDs count for six points instead of four.  Last season’s QB1s Cousins, Goff, & Rivers all gain an additional Clutch Game (CG) when their owners were awarded six points per TD pass. In leagues where owners are given six points for a passing TD, QBs who throw multiple touchdowns per game give an owner a distinct advantage at the position. Thus, Cousins, Rivers, and Goff all had nine games of two or more passing touchdowns in 2017.

2018 Players to Watch- Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz, the dual BGFS award winner for QB Clutch Comeback Player of the Year & Best Value QB, earns two additional Clutch Games and sees his CR jump from Good (69%) to Excellent (85%) in 6pt passing TD leagues. The Philadelphia Eagle was a TD passing machine as he not only had ten games of 2+ TDs, but six games of 3+ TDs. This upside is the reason the second-year product from North Dakota State was the clear-front runner for MVP before his gruesome Week 14 injury. This injury, and Wentz’s backup Nick Foles leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl, present a great buying opportunity for Wentz in 2018. But more on that later.

The Negative

Name

Team

Fantasy Points

Fantasy Points Rank

Clutch Games

Games Played

Clutch Game Change

6 Point TD Clutch Rate

Change

Stafford,Matthew

DET

396.1

3

11

16

-1

69%

-6%

Newton,Cam

CAR

392.5

6

6

16

-1

38%

-6%

Prescott,Dak

DAL

357

12

8

16

-1

50%

-6%

Bortles,Blake

JAX

341.6

13

7

16

-2

44%

-12%

Mariota,Marcus

TEN

285.8

21

6

15

-1

40%

-7%

Watson,Deshaun

HOU

229.9

27

5

7

-1

71%

-15%

Trubisky,Mitchell

CHI

181.8

30

1

13

-2

8%

-15%

Hundley,Brett

GB

172.8

31

2

12

-1

17%

-8%

Garoppolo,Jimmy

SF

122.1

33

3

6

-1

50%

-17%

Beathard,C.J.

SF

121.1

34

1

6

-2

17%

-33%


While the consistency of the majority of QBs was not affected by the scoring change, three of the top twelve QBs saw their consistency take a dip in 6pt passing TD leagues. Thus, seven of the top twelve (58%) performing QBs last season saw their consistency rates affected in the 6pt passing TD scoring format. Quarterback Clutch MVP Matthew Stafford loses a Clutch Game and sees his CR fall to 69% with the scoring change. Stafford’s yardage totals were impressive most of the season, but he left his owners in six-point TD leagues wanting more with two games with zero and four games with only a single passing TD. Cam Newton is the antithesis of consistency in fantasy football so seeing his name on this list is no surprise; but Deshaun Watson’s inclusion is a bit puzzling. We would need a bigger sample size to empirically prove this; however, QBs who depend on their rushing prowess for production may not be as valuable in these six-point passing TD leagues. In four point passing TD leagues, the rushing upside, particularly the extra two points rushing TDs get their owners, almost vanishes in the revised scoring format.

Conclusions for 2018

This may seem redundant, but if you play in a league which awards six points for passing TDs you want a QB with weekly multiple TD upside. A player like Carson Wentz before his Week 14 injury, or Drew Brees circa 2011, can almost single-handedly carry a fantasy owner to the promised land in these leagues. Wentz must be the number one target at QB in 2018 for leagues when owners receive an extra two points for passing touchdowns. Wentz’s serious Week 14 injury presents a value-laden buying opportunity in 2018 drafts. I wrote for another site in late January advising to only draft Wentz if it’s after Round 5, and you are able to acquire another high-upside, late-round QB with an early favorable schedule. Wentz’s current ADP is 8.07, check, Phillip Rivers (9.01) and Matthew Stafford (10.04) are both consistent alternatives available for value, check and check.

Wentz may have personally set Kickoff Weekend as his target return date, however he still may miss a few weeks or take some time to reach his 2017 pre-injury level of play. Start Rivers or Stafford with confidence for several weeks until Wentz is back under-center and returns to his MVP frontrunner form. Wentz will be the ultimate spark on your team for the stretch run and could help win some fantasy titles come December.

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