2019 - xConsistency vs ADP - QB

We welcome aboard Dom Cintorino to the Big Guy Fantasy Sports site! Dom helps bring Consistency into perspective as he breaks downs the quarterbacks and how their xConsistency values are stacking up versus their current ADP! You can follow Dom on Twitter at @domcinto_11!

Consistency at the quarterback position is crucial. Having steady quarterback play gives a fantasy football team a consistent floor. This is the one position that has smallest amount of variance from year to year. There are teams that might have a “training camp battle”, or a rookie who could make a push to start. For the most part, teams typically retain their starting quarterback from the previous season. 

The main variable that might sway a quarterbacks stock would be the new weapons the team has surrounded them with. You will see some quarterbacks that will be brought up in this article have an ADP that is much different from their Consistency Rank from 2018. This can be a reflection of moving pieces either for the good, or the bad.

In this article, I will be comparing quarterbacks’ current ADP from FantasyPros, to their Consistency Ranking from Bob Lung’s 2019 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide.

Let’s take a look at the top-25 quarterbacks’ ADP’s compared to their Consistency Rank:

 

QB

xConsistency

ADP

Difference

Patrick Mahomes

1

1

0

Matt Ryan

2

7

-5

Ben Roethlisberger

3

13

-10

Andrew Luck

4

2

2

Deshaun Watson

5

4

1

Cam Newton

6

9

-3

Carson Wentz

7

11

-4

Russell Wilson

9

6

3

Jameis Winston

10

15

-5

Baker Mayfield

11

5

6

Jared Goff

12

10

2

Aaron Rodgers

13

3

10

Tom Brady

14

14

0

Phillip Rivers

15

16

-1

Drew Brees

16

8

8

Dak Prescott

17

20

-3

Josh Allen

18

22

-4

Kirk Cousins

20

12

8

Mitch Trubisky

21

19

2

Matthew Stafford

29

23

6

Jimmy Garoppolo

30

21

9

Sam Darnold

32

25

7

Derek Carr

34

24

10

Lamar Jackson

40

17

23


Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Let's start with the clear consensus QB1. In terms of fantasy points, Consistency, and ADP, Mahomes is in a class of his own. With the four sources that FantasyPros used to gather their average ADP, Mahomes is the first quarterback off the board in all of them. In the Fantasy Football Consistency Guide, he was also far and away the most consistent on a week to week basis, earning a Clutch Rate of 100%. To put this number into perspective, the next highest quarterback was 25% lower, at just 75%.

When looking at overall ADP, Mahomes is currently going at the back end of the second round. A season ago, we weren’t seeing the first quarterback being selected until the fourth, or even fifth round in some cases. This price for Mahomes is a bit too high for my liking as it will be difficult to repeat this perfect consistency.

Consistent “Value” QB’s: Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen.

These eight quarterbacks all have a lower current ADP than where their Consistency Rank was a year ago. Matt Ryan was the second ranked quarterback in terms of Consistency, now for the second time in the past three years. It was a nice bounceback for Ryan after finishing 19th in terms of Consistency in 2017. Ryan threw for just under 5,000 to go along with 35 passing touchdowns finishing second in fantasy points among quarterbacks. He is surrounded by virtually the same supporting cast, but replacing Tevin Coleman with a healthy Devonta Freeman. However, he is still being overlooked as the seventh quarterback being taken off draft boards.

Of all the names listed above, Ben Roethlisberger has the most substantial difference between Consistency and ADP. His Consistency Rank in 2018 was third, while his current ADP is 10 spots lower at 13. So why the big drop off? A mix of his age (37), and the departure of Antonio Brown. The Steelers do have James Washington, and Donte Moncrief to fill this void, but it may not be as easy as it looks. AB had six consecutive seasons with 150+ targets, 100+ receptions, 1,200+ yards, and at least eight touchdowns. While Roethlisberger has now had three straight seasons ranked inside the top-10 in Consistency, don’t be surprised if that streak ends this year.

Next on the list is Cam Newton, who is separated by just three spots. His health has been a concern this offseason, so his ADP may change one way or another as we get closer to the season. As for Carson Wentz, injuries have plagued his past two seasons playing just 24 games combined. In the last two shortened seasons, Wentz has finished inside the top five in Consistency with a Clutch Rate of 71%. The Eagles offense has added key pieces such as Desean Jackson, Miles Sanders, and Jordan Howard this offseason. On the edge of falling outside of the QB1 range in drafts, Wentz is a great value. His Consistency continues to rise each and every year.

Jameis Winston might be one of the best values on this list, with a total of five spots separating his Consistency from his ADP. Winston is being selected as the 15th quarterback in drafts, which is well worth the wait. His 2018 season was a rollercoaster of a year with his suspension, and Fitzpatrick playing at a high level. Once this all cleared up, Winston finished the year with six Clutch Games in his last seven games. This is clearly a small sample size, but that rate would have put him as the second most consistent quarterback with a clutch rate of 85%.

This group rounds out with Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen. All three of which, are great values with an ADP outside of the top-15. Prescott and Allen find their Consistency with help from their legs, while Rivers is strictly a pocket passer. Of the three, I believe Prescott’s ADP will rise the most while Rivers and Allen should remain in the same general area.

Inconsistent, Overdrafted QB’s: Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Kirk Cousins.

There is a lot of red on this list, but the difference is not overwhelming. Sure, we have the bottom of the list, but let's just focus on players in the QB1 range who were not as consistent as people might have thought in 2018. Baker Mayfield is currently the fifth quarterback being selected. In his rookie season, Mayfield had a 64% Clutch Rate, finishing as the ninth most consistent quarterback. There are high expectations for Mayfield entering his second season, especially with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. to the offense.

After two consecutive year as the most consistent Fantasy Football quarterback, Aaron Rodgers took a major step back raking 12th in 2018. His Clutch Rate also took a dive, dropping by 30%. Rodgers battled injuries throughout the year, so we should expect him to improve his consistency numbers, but proceed with caution as he is currently being selected as QB3. Another veteran quarterback who had a disappointing season in terms of Consistency, is Drew Brees. In fact, 2018 marked the second straight year in which Brees finished outside the top 15 quarterbacks in Consistency (21st/18th). Brees did not have a Clutch Game at any point from weeks 13-17. He is being selected as the QB8 and has generally the same weapons around him heading into the 2019 season. His best years may be behind him.

Lastly, we have Kirk Cousins, who is being selected just on the edge of the QB1 range. In his first year with the Vikings, Cousins finished 23rd in Consistency with arguably the best receiving duo in the league. It was his worst rank in the past three years and the first time finishing outside the top 15. The biggest concern would be if the Vikings do shift over to the run-heavy offense they displayed under OC Kevin Stefanski at the end of 2018. In the three weeks with Stefanski as OC, Cousins had just one Clutch Game. Moving forward, Cousins should become more comfortable in the offense heading into his second year.

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