Nease’s Insights—Re-Drafter Rookie Bonanza—Not so Much!

Every season, we welcome a new class of rookies to the fantasy football player pool. From April until we draft, we are barraged by the media hype, proclaiming that a couple of dozen youngsters are the second coming of Jerry Rice, Steve Young or Walter Payton. Sorry, it is not going to happen. Rookies, in a re-drafter format, are usually going to disappoint you.

Over the last two seasons, the number of rookies scoring over the modest threshold of 140 fantasy points, breaks down like this by position:

                2017  2016

   QB           3        2

   RB           7        3

   WR          2        3

   TE           1        0  

   PK           2        1

                15        9

Just to ratchet up the difficulty in determining who to draft is the fact that many years, the top ranked rookies disappoint us and others step and surprise us. The best comparison I can think of to illustrate this point is this. Picture going to a traditional carnival and playing a rigged game to win a giant teddy bear by knocking over kewpie dolls. Even with your best pitch, some of those darn dolls stay will just not go down and you lose. In drafting rookies, as in playing carnival games, the odds are heavily weighted against you.

With this negativity, you might think that I am suggesting not drafting rookies. That will never be the case. I love drafting rookies. The secret of success is narrowing the odds.

In the following charts below, I have ranked the top rookies. The primary criterion I used is their potential to have an opportunity to get significant playing time this year. I have included their current depth chart positions. With two weeks to go until Week 1, the depth chart statuses will likely change. Keep an eye on that as you prepare for your draft.

The rationale of drafting rookies is of course different for a dynasty league format. Here, all of these rookies and more should be drafted. Some may ask what to do with Derrius Guice, who is out for the season? Since most players recover and are able to perform at prior levels after an injury, we can assume he will be ready to go at the beginning of, or at least during, the 2019 season. I would draft him as about the 9th or so RB, right after the healthy prospects are taken.

     

NFL

 

Overall

Depth

 

Pos

Rank

Player

Team

Round

Choice

Chart

Status

QB

1

Sam Darnold

NYJ

1

1

1

OK

QB

2

Josh Allen

BUF

1

3

2

OK

QB

3

Josh Rosen

ARI

1

7

2

OK

QB

4

Baker Mayfield

CLE

1

10

3

OK

QB

5

Lamar Jackson

BAL

1

32

2

OK

  

     

NFL

 

Overall

Depth

 

Pos

Rank

Player

Team

Round

Choice

Chart

Status

RB

1

Saquon Barkley

NYG

1

2

1

OK

RB

2

Kerryon Johnson

DET

2

43

1

OK

RB

3

Royce Freeman

DEN

3

71

2

OK

RB

4

Rashaad Penny

SEA

1

27

2

Injured

RB

5

Nick Chubb

CLE

2

35

3

OK

RB

6

Ronald Jones

TB

2

38

3

OK

RB

7

Sony Michel

NE

1

31

2

Injured

RB

8

Nyheim Hines

IND

4

104

3

OK

RB

9

Jordan Wilkins

IND

5

169

4

OK

RB

10

Kalen Ballage

MIA

4

131

3

OK

 

     

NFL

 

Overall

Depth

 

Pos

Rank

Player

Team

Round

Choice

Chart

Status

WR

1

Calvin Ridley

ATL

1

26

3

OK

WR

2

D.J. Moore

CAR

1

24

2

OK

WR

3

Christian Kirk

ARI

2

47

2

OK

WR

4

James Washington

PIT

2

60

3

OK

WR

5

Courtland Sutton

DEN

2

40

3

OK

WR

6

Michael Gallup

DAL

3

81

3

OK

WR

7

Anthony Miller

CHI

3

51

3

OK

WR

8

Dante Pettis

SF

2

44

4

OK

WR

9

Tre'Quan Smith

NO

3

91

4

OK

WR

10

J'Mon Moore

GB

4

133

4

OK

 

     

NFL

 

Overall

Depth

 

Pos

Rank

Player

Team

Round

Choice

Chart

Status

TE

1

Hayden Hurst

BAL

1

25

1

OK

TE

2

Mike Gesicki

MIA

2

42

2

OK

TE

3

Mark Andrews

BAL

3

82

3

OK

TE

4

Dallas Goedert

PHI

2

49

2

OK

TE

5

Jordan Akins

HOU

3

98

3

OK

 

     

NFL

 

Overall

Depth

 

Pos

Rank

Player

Team

Round

Choice

Chart

Status

PK

1

Jason Sanders

MIA

7

225

1

OK

 

By now we have covered a lot of subjects to help you have a successful draft. At times I may be harsh, but believe me when I say it is tough love. To consistently win in fantasy football you must outsmart your opponents. Gather as much information as you can from sources that you can rely on. Does a resource you use make you a better fantasy football owner? A few articles back, we discussed several resources. That article and others are readily available at our website

 https://bigguyfantasysports.com/index.php/football/nease-s-insights

Ask the Experts

When my friend Andy Richardson invited me to provide material for his weekly Fantasy Index Thursday morning "Ask the Experts" column, I was thrilled and honored. Here is the August 23 article from our friends at Fantasy Index. Check out all our comments to help you get an idea about some players that have stood out and impressed us thus far in the preseason.

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/08/23/ask-the-experts/who-has-impressed-you-most-this-preseason

Two weeks to go! Buckle up for the season-long journey. My colleagues and I at Big Guy Fantasy Sports are intent on helping you become the champions you want to be. With our poignant articles and being the home base for the consistency theory, a sound, mathematically-based alternative to ADP, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That my friends, is easy. We start over and do it all again in 2019!

Over the years many readers have contacted me personally for fantasy football questions throughout the year. I look forward to helping you in your quest to win championships this year. You can contact me by email with any questions you may have on fantasy football generally, or on consistency specifically, at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., follow me on Twitter @mikeinsights, or join me as a member of Couch Tomatoes, my fantasy football discussion group on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/330237687362965/.

Good luck! Have fun!

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