Nease’s Insights—Another NFL New Year on the Horizon

If you are thinking that the 2018 NFL season just barely ended; it indeed did. With memories of a Super Bowl that was less than exciting still in our heads, next week on March 13, 2019 at 4:00 pm ET, a new league year begins and the annual free agency frenzy begins.

When you play fantasy football, it is a yearlong game. Over the last few weeks we have been following several key stories that you may have missed:

  1. The AAF inaugural season—With teams stocked with former NFL flops and wannabes, there has been a less than enthusiastic response from people that buy tickets. The TV response has been ok, but not too great either. After the first week the league came close to failing already, but they got a last-minute cash infusion to continue. Prognosis—Not looking too good for the AAF and next year the XFL muddies the competition waters even more.
  2. Le’Veon Bell—The Steelers have decided not to tag him and will let him go in free agency. There have been reports, quickly denied, that his weight has ballooned to 260 pounds. Prognosis—wherever he winds up, he will have a hard time recouping the $14M+ that he forfeited by sitting out last season. At 27, he is not worth a long-term contract of more than about three years.
  3. Antonio Brown—A second Steeler star that will be leaving, Brown wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh. After getting benched for the Week 17 crucial game, that the Steelers lost, Brown proceeded to verbally unload in the media on Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Tomlin and the entire Pittsburgh organization. As a result, the team has announced that he will be summarily traded. Prognosis—Brown will be 31 when the 2019 season begins. His future value is limited by age and is wholly dependent on the QB and offensive acumen of any team he is traded to. Chances are that Pittsburgh will do him no favors.
  4. Todd Gurley—After a fast fade during the regular season and playoffs, followed by a cameo appearance in the Super Bowl, the appearance was that a journeyman RB, C.J. Anderson, seemed to have suddenly become a better player than the #1 RB in the league. Since the Super Bowl, many stories have been floated and none really made sense until the other day when it was reported that he has arthritis in his left knee. Since he had a serious knee injury years ago in college, arthritis makes sense. Prognosis—the jury is now out on how long Gurley may be able to play, not only in the long-term, but also in 2019.

The early word, in my opinion, is to watch these players closely before you draft. Right now, I would not draft Bell, Brown or Gurley. There are so many viable alternatives that are safer choices. However, if they seem to be safe picks at draft time, use your judgement and decide what to do then.

This year we will cover the whole gamut of fantasy football—free agency, the NFL Draft, types of leagues and scoring variations, player evaluations, your drafts-with strategies and tips, and full support throughout the regular season.

We will intensify our efforts to help you understand and implement my good friend and colleague at Big Guy Fantasy Sports, Bob Lung’s Consistency Theory. As you can see below, in 2018 I had my best season in 34 years with three fantasy championships. I used a combination of Bob’s ingenious Consistency Theory and my own knowledge of the game to fine tune my drafting and team management skills.

Unlocking the power of consistency really got me excited. I am working on something new consistency wise. I call it the Performance Consistency Rating (PCR). It measures the relative values of players based on weekly scoring levels, their YTD game averages and is weighted by the number of games a player actually played.

Last year was a high scoring season in the NFL, with record scoring levels resulting in fantasy football scoring also soaring to new heights and records. I am looking forward to the new challenges another season brings. Springtime is approaching fast and with it brings us an opportunity to enjoy our favorite game together.

I am so glad to be back to help you once again.  

Good luck in your 2019 championship battles. All of us here at Big Guy Fantasy Sports are intent on helping you become the champions you want to be. With our poignant articles and being the home base for the Consistency Theory, a sound, mathematically-based alternative to ADP, we will be with you every step of the way throughout the entire 2019 season. This will be my 35th year playing and my 19th season writing about our passion for fantasy football.

Just in case you were wondering how I did in 2018 and want to know if I know what I am talking about, how about this? Five of my six teams made it to their league playoffs. With a cumulative 53-29 record (65% wins), I won fantasy championships in two formidable experts’ leagues, FanEx and FFWebmasters, as well as in my own Couch Tomatoes Invitational Auction league. Yes, that is three fantasy championships in six tough leagues, with two of those three teams having dominating 12-1 regular season records.

In the Fantasy Index Magazine annual experts’ scoring projection contest, I ranked #6 out of 20.  In the similar public Fantasy Index Open, out of 583 entries, I was #2 in projecting QB, RB, WR, TE, PK and DST Top 20 scoring. These entries were submitted before the first preseason games. I just barely missed winning my second title in this contest (won in 2014). I lost by a heartbreaking 43 points at a scoring level of about 310,000 points. In 2018, using a combination of the Consistency Theory and my own knowledge of our game, I had my best year ever.

Over the years many readers have contacted me personally for fantasy football questions throughout the year. I look forward to helping you in your quest to win championships this year. You can contact me by email with any questions you may have on fantasy football generally, or on consistency specifically, at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., follow me on Twitter @mikeinsights, or join me as a member of Couch Tomatoes, my fantasy football discussion group on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/330237687362965/.

 Good luck! Have fun!

 

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