Nease’s Insights—Week 8: QBs Lead Passing Game Revolution

So far, we have looked at 2018 scoring with an analysis of the RB and WR positions. This week we will go to the crux of all the additional offense, the QBs. This year on opening day, there were 15 QBs who did not start for their current teams a year before. That is almost a 50% turnover. With the exception of a few veterans that had changed teams, or where other QBs have retired. these were primarily younger QBs.

They, for the most part, are very versatile, threatening defenses not only with strong arms, but also with their ability to run. Offensive coordinators are adjusting the stodgy old games plans and this season we have so far witnessed a wide-open game. I have not seen this much offense since back in the 1960s when the old AFL was competing with the NFL in the pre-merger years.

The AFL realized back then that high scoring game excited the fans more than the standard 10-7 defensive battles the NFL was offering at the time. Fans loved the offensively strong games and before you knew it, the two leagues merged, forming the NFL as we know it today. This was back in an era with minimal TV coverage and no fantasy football. Yes, I was there and by then the dinosaurs were extinct. There was life before fantasy football. LOL!

Over the last couple of weeks, we saw in our RBs and WRs reviews many very surprising players that nobody would have expected to increase so much in productivity, or decline to the depths they have in other cases. The rise and fall of players are all based on comparisons made with the preseason average draft position (ADP) rankings.

Let’s take a look at how the Top 25 ADP ranked QBs are doing going into Week 8. I used ADP stats from MyFanatsyLeague.com. They have been compiled using over 3,000 drafts occurring after August 1 in re-drafter leagues using PPR scoring. The scoring stats, as usual, are from the FanEx Experts’ League, being played on the MFL.com team management platform.

ADP      Total Scoring  
Rank Player Team Points Rank Comments
1 Aaron Rodgers GB        159.95 11 Had Bye
2 Deshaun Watson HOU        157.45 13 Had Bye
3 Russell Wilson.  SEA        119.70 22 Had Bye
4 Tom Brady NE        165.00 7  
5 Cam Newton CAR        159.05 12 Had Bye
6 Drew Brees NO        161.70 9 Had Bye
7 Carson Wentz PHI        120.00 21 2 Games-Inj
8 Andrew Luck IND        177.90 4  
9 Kirk Cousins MIN        179.70 3  
10 Matthew Stafford DET        126.90 19 Had Bye
11 Jimmy Garoppolo SF          58.20 34 Injured
12 Philip Rivers LAC        169.90 5  
13 Ben Roethlisberger PIT        160.75 10 Had Bye
14 Matt Ryan ATL        197.45 2  
15 Jared Goff LAR        165.10 6  
16 Patrick Mahomes KC        218.45 1  
17 Marcus Mariota TEN          83.00 30 Injured
18 Dak Prescott DAL        136.45 17  
19 Alex Smith WAS        109.55 26 Had Bye
20 Derek Carr OAK        114.95 25 Had Bye
21 Jameis Winston TB          74.50 32 Susp
22 Mitchell Trubisky CHI        162.20 8 Had Bye
23 Blake Bortels JAC        142.55 16  
24 Baker Mayfield CLE          95.95 27 Replacement
25 Eli Manning NYG        133.05 18  

 

At the upper point of the list, there are only four players in the Top 10 ADP tanked QB that we find in our Top 10 scorers list below. Sure, there was a healthy crop of QB1 choices this season, but who expected to see Patrick Mahomes, Mitchell Trubisky and Jared Goff scoring so well, while Russell Wilson is only playing like a low QB2? Once again, I have used gross points, rather than average points, because I want to demonstrate how many points each player listed has actually contributed to your lineups.

We have looked at QB scoring from the ADP standpoint. In this Top 25 scoring QBs analysis, we are seeing where the scorers were listed on the ADP list, as well as what their Consistency rankings were.

 

Scoring      Total  ADP  Consistency
Rank Player Team  Points  Rank Rank
1 Patrick Mahomes KC        218.15 16 19
2 Matt Ryan ATL        197.45 14 15
3 Kirk Cousins MIN        179.70 9 4
4 Andrew Luck IND        177.90 8 7
5 Philip Rivers LAC        169.50 12 16
6 Jared Goff LAR        165.10 15 13
7 Tom Brady NE        165.00 4 5
8 Mitchell Trubisky CHI        162.20 22 25
9 Drew Brees NO        161.70 6 6
10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT        160.75 13 11
11 Aaron Rodgers GB        159.95 1 1
12 Cam Newton CAR        159.05 5 12
13 Deshaun Watson HOU        157.45 2 2
14 Joe Flacco BAL        146.75 32 29
15 Andy Dalton CIN        146.20 26 26
16 Blake Bortles JAC        142.55 23 18
17 Dak Prescott DAL        136.45 18 22
18 Eli Manning NYG        133.05 25 27
19 Matthew Stafford DET        126.90 10 9
20 Case Keenum DEN        124.00 27 23
21 Carson Wentz PHI        120.00 7 8
22 Russell Wilson SEA        119.70 3 3
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick TB        119.10 62 N/A
24 Sam Darnold NYJ        117.60 28 N/A
25 Derek Carr OAK        114.95 20 21

 

Obviously, we have once again caught ADP at it’s very worst. In the case of QBs, as we found for RBs and WRs, consistency rankings are much more effective. It just seems logical that stacking your roster with players who pretty much have a solid base score every game, with the normal high ceiling possibilities is more valuable than having players whose scoring goes up and down like a yoyo.

No system is perfect. That is why I suggest that in draft preparation, using several sources and compiling one’s own rankings is the best way to draft a winning team. Bob Lung and I are both in the FFWebmasters’ Experts league. This is a prestige league that you join only upon invitation and one must be approved by the other members. I won the championship about 4-5 years ago.

This season, Bob and I each have teams. He is playing under the Big Guys Fantasy Sports banner and I am playing for Advanced Sports Logic, another information site I am affiliated with. This is a 14-team league and my buddy Bob and I are owning it so far. We are both using consistency and not following ADP.

He is 7-0 and I am right behind him at 6-1. We not only sit atop the standings by a wide margin, but we are far ahead of the field in the coveted power rankings, I seven weeks, I have been the #1 weekly scoring team three times and the #2 weekly scoring team twice. That my friends is domination and it feels so good.

This is playing against all the big-time fantasy experts like Fantasy Guru, FFMastermind, The Huddle and more. I am here to tell you that consistency makes a big difference. Last year, I had three strong teams out of my five that made the playoffs. This year four of my six teams are on course for the playoffs, with a fifth one that could sneak into contention with a few wins.

Here are the standings and power ranking reports from the FFWebmasters league. The closest teams to us are 4-3.

http://www80.myfantasyleague.com/2018/standings?L=43547

http://www80.myfantasyleague.com/2018/options?L=43547&O=101

Over the last couple of weeks, I referenced consistency rankings and compared them to ADP, pretty clearly showing that in regards to QBs, RBs and WRs, consistency rankings are much more accurate. Here are links to two free articles that I think will explain things to get you up to speed on the latest nuances in fantasy football.

https://bigguyfantasysports.com/index.php/29-intro-to-clutch/27-the-history-of-consistency-and-clutch-player

https://bigguyfantasysports.com/index.php/29-intro-to-clutch/29-improve-your-record-with-consistency

While you are on our website, sign up for our free daily newsletter. Look for it on our home page—just fill in your name and email and get on the early bird list when new articles are released.

Ask the Experts

When my friend Andy Richardson invited me to provide material for his weekly Fantasy Index Thursday morning "Ask the Experts" column, I was thrilled and honored. Here is the October 25, 2018 article from our friends at Fantasy Index. Check out all our comments this week as we answer the question: “Which bench stash who hasn't emerged yet should fantasy teams continue to be patient with, and NOT drop in the coming weeks? Why him?

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/10/25/ask-the-experts/which-bench-stash-should-fantasy-teams-be-patient-with

We are now moving smoothly through the 2018 season. All of us at Big Guy Fantasy Sports are intent on helping you become the champions you want to be. With our poignant articles and being the home base for the consistency theory, a sound, mathematically-based alternative to ADP, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That my friends, is easy. We start over and do it all again in 2019!

Over the years many readers have contacted me personally for fantasy football questions throughout the year. I look forward to helping you in your quest to win championships this year. You can contact me by email with any questions you may have on fantasy football generally, or on consistency specifically, at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., follow me on Twitter @mikeinsights, or join me as a member of Couch Tomatoes, my fantasy football discussion group on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/330237687362965/.

Good luck! Have fun!

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