Nease’s Insights—Week 7: The WR Scoring Explosion

As we continue our review of the soaring 2018 scoring, we are dissecting and studying the phenomenon position by position. Last week we found that actual RB scoring was definitely not in-line with preseason ADP rankings. Today, we will examine the WR position. Scoring here is increasing a tad less than for QBs and RBs, according to our scoring increase analysis two weeks ago.

Last week, we saw that our RB scoring review found many very surprising players that nobody would have expected to increase so much in productivity, or decline to the depths they have in other cases. The rise and fall of players are all based on comparisons made with the preseason average draft position (ADP) rankings.

There is a difference between RBs and WRs in the way their careers progress. RBs are usually productive at the start of their careers and improve to their eventual personal maximum level of performance. The RB is pretty predictable when compared to WRs.

WRs seldom start out as a top player in overall scoring. They tend to develop slowly and begin to prosper statistically in about their third season. But, as is the case on many walks of life, opportunity to display one’s talents as a WR, is not the same for each and every player. Look at cases this year where players have gone from being WR3-4s and have moved to new teams and are more involved in the offenses now, such as Taylor Gabriel and Albert Wilson.

As we did last week for RBs, let’s take a look at how the Top 25 ADP ranked WRs are doing going into Week 7. I used ADP stats from MyFanatsyLeague.com. They have been compiled using over 3,000 drafts occurring after August 1 in re-drafter leagues using PPR scoring.

The scoring stats, as usual, are from the FanEx Experts’ League, being played on the MFL.com team management platform.

 

ADP      Total Scoring  
Rank Player Team Points Rank Comments
1 Antonio Brown PIT        123.50 5  
2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU        127.70 4  
3 Odell Becham NYG        109.45 12  
4 Julio Jones ATL        115.80 7  
5 Michael Thomas NO        115.90 6 Had Bye
6 Keenan Allen LAC          90.00 21  
7 Davante Adams GB        138.70 2  
8 A. J. Green CIN        112.40 10  
9 Mike Evans TB          99.40 16 Had Bye
10 Tyreek Hill  KC        136.40 3  
11 Stefon Diggs MIN        107.80 13  
12 T.Y. Hilton IND          62.40 46 Injured
13 Amari Cooper OAK          56.90 55  
14 Jarvis Landry CLE          78.20 29  
15 Adam Thielen MIN        153.20 1  
16 Larry Fitzgerald ARI          43.50 67  
17 Doug Baldwin SEA          25.30 103 Injured
18 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT        112.10 11  
19 Brandin Cooks LAR          86.10 24  
20 Allen Robinson CHI          64.00 43 Had Bye
21 Demaryus Thomas DEN          79.00 27  
22 Golden Tate DET          95.00 17 Had Bye
23 Marvin Jones DET          58.10 53 Had Bye
24 Chris Hogan NE          49.10 62  
25 Josh Gordon NE          36.10 83 Issues

 

At the upper point of the list, players are pretty much who we expected to be there, albeit with a somewhat jumbled order. However, when we look at the bottom half of the chart, there are lots of surprises aren’t there?

I have used gross points, rather than average points, because I want to demonstrate how many points each player listed has contributed to your lineups. You might say that injured players have an excuse, like Bell and Ingram. I say no way. Bell and Ingram missed games because of a choice made by Bell and a violation of rules by Ingram. People knew there was a risk drafting both of them. Injuries happen though and unfortunately, we just have to deal with them. 

We have looked at WR scoring from the ADP standpoint. In this Top 25 scoring WRs analysis, we are seeing where the scorers were listed on the ADP list.

 

Scoring      Total  ADP   
Rank Player Team  Points  Rank Comments
1 Adam Thielen MIN        153.20 15  
2 Davante Adams GB        138.70 7  
3 Tyreek Hill KC        136.40 10  
4 DeAndre Hopkins HOU        127.70 2  
5 Antonio Brown PIT        123.80 1  
6 Michael Thomas NO        115.90 5 Had Bye
7 Julio Jones ATL        115.80 4  
8 Robert Woods LAR        114.50 34  
9 Emmanuel Sanders DEN        113.40 33  
10 A. J. Greem CIN        112.40 8  
11 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT        112.10 18  
12 Odell Beckham NYG        109.45 3  
13 Stefon Diggs MIN        107.80 11  
14 Tyler Boyd CIN        107.00 97  
15 Cooper Kupp LAR        106.60 35  
16 Mike Evans TB          99.40 9 Had Bye
17 Golden Tate DET          95.00 22 Had Bye
18 Calvin Ridley ATL          94.20 50  
19 Albert Wilson MIA          91.70 96  
20 Tyler Lockett SEA          90.60 56  
21 Keenan Allen LAC          90.00 6  
22 DeSean Jackson TB          89.80 61 Had Bye
23 Kenny Golladay DET          87.80 52 Had Bye
24 Brandin Cooks LAR          86.10 19  
25 John Brown BAL          81.80 63  

 

Over the next couple of weeks, we will also review QBs and TEs. We will skip PKs and DSTs.

I had some personal issues this week and did not have an opportunity to include the Consistency Rankings to ADP here. Sorry about that. Scanning the September 4 listing though, I noted that Consistency would likely edge ADP out for WRs. Although I don’t think it would be as big a beating as in RBs. As we noted above, WRs are harder to predict than any of the other positions.

That is why I suggest that in draft preparation, using several sources and compiling one’s own rankings. My teams have WRs this year like Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas, as well as lesser ranked WRs during the summer like Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Taylor Gabriel and Kenny Golladay.  The latter six were far from top ranked back then, but have all produced for me exceptionally well.

Selecting them was my judgment alone. I certainly did not use ADP. Three of these leagues are experts’ leagues with industry experts and the other two have savvy, veteran owners. My own rankings were pretty much spot on, but the analytical software told me my teams suck. They in fact suck so much that I have three 5-1, two 3-3 and one 2-4 teams. If only they would suck so bad every year. LOL All the teams except the 2-4 one, are top 3 teams in their respective leagues.

In my last article, I referenced consistency rankings and compared them to ADP, pretty clearly showing that in regards to RBs, consistency rankings are much more accurate. I was surprised to receive over 20 emails from you readers asking me what the heck is this consistency stuff you are talking about? I apologize for my oversight. Here are links to two articles that I think will explain things to get you up to speed on the latest nuances in fantasy football.

https://bigguyfantasysports.com/index.php/29-intro-to-clutch/27-the-history-of-consistency-and-clutch-players

 https://bigguyfantasysports.com/index.php/29-intro-to-clutch/29-improve-your-record-with-consistency

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Ask the Experts

When my friend Andy Richardson invited me to provide material for his weekly Fantasy Index Thursday morning "Ask the Experts" column, I was thrilled and honored. Here is the October 18, 2018 article from our friends at Fantasy Index. Check out all our comments this week as we answer the question: “Some big names are being bandied about in trade rumors. Pick one player you wish would be traded, and to where, and why him.”

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/10/18/ask-the-experts/which-nfl-trade-do-you-wish-would-happen

We are now moving smoothly through the 2018 season. All of us at Big Guy Fantasy Sports are intent on helping you become the champions you want to be. With our poignant articles and being the home base for the consistency theory, a sound, mathematically-based alternative to ADP, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That my friends, is easy. We start over and do it all again in 2019!

Over the years many readers have contacted me personally for fantasy football questions throughout the year. I look forward to helping you in your quest to win championships this year. You can contact me by email with any questions you may have on fantasy football generally, or on consistency specifically, at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., follow me on Twitter @mikeinsights, or join me as a member of Couch Tomatoes, my fantasy football discussion group on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/330237687362965/.

Good luck! Have fun!

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