As we continue our review of the soaring 2018 scoring, we are dissecting and studying the phenomenon position by position. Last week we found that actual RB scoring was definitely not in-line with preseason ADP rankings. Today, we will examine the WR position. Scoring here is increasing a tad less than for QBs and RBs, according to our scoring increase analysis two weeks ago.
Last week, we saw that our RB scoring review found many very surprising players that nobody would have expected to increase so much in productivity, or decline to the depths they have in other cases. The rise and fall of players are all based on comparisons made with the preseason average draft position (ADP) rankings.
There is a difference between RBs and WRs in the way their careers progress. RBs are usually productive at the start of their careers and improve to their eventual personal maximum level of performance. The RB is pretty predictable when compared to WRs.
WRs seldom start out as a top player in overall scoring. They tend to develop slowly and begin to prosper statistically in about their third season. But, as is the case on many walks of life, opportunity to display one’s talents as a WR, is not the same for each and every player. Look at cases this year where players have gone from being WR3-4s and have moved to new teams and are more involved in the offenses now, such as Taylor Gabriel and Albert Wilson.
As we did last week for RBs, let’s take a look at how the Top 25 ADP ranked WRs are doing going into Week 7. I used ADP stats from MyFanatsyLeague.com. They have been compiled using over 3,000 drafts occurring after August 1 in re-drafter leagues using PPR scoring.
The scoring stats, as usual, are from the FanEx Experts’ League, being played on the MFL.com team management platform.
|5||Michael Thomas||NO||115.90||6||Had Bye|
|8||A. J. Green||CIN||112.40||10|
|9||Mike Evans||TB||99.40||16||Had Bye|
|20||Allen Robinson||CHI||64.00||43||Had Bye|
|22||Golden Tate||DET||95.00||17||Had Bye|
|23||Marvin Jones||DET||58.10||53||Had Bye|
At the upper point of the list, players are pretty much who we expected to be there, albeit with a somewhat jumbled order. However, when we look at the bottom half of the chart, there are lots of surprises aren’t there?
I have used gross points, rather than average points, because I want to demonstrate how many points each player listed has contributed to your lineups. You might say that injured players have an excuse, like Bell and Ingram. I say no way. Bell and Ingram missed games because of a choice made by Bell and a violation of rules by Ingram. People knew there was a risk drafting both of them. Injuries happen though and unfortunately, we just have to deal with them.
We have looked at WR scoring from the ADP standpoint. In this Top 25 scoring WRs analysis, we are seeing where the scorers were listed on the ADP list.
|6||Michael Thomas||NO||115.90||5||Had Bye|
|10||A. J. Greem||CIN||112.40||8|
|16||Mike Evans||TB||99.40||9||Had Bye|
|17||Golden Tate||DET||95.00||22||Had Bye|
|22||DeSean Jackson||TB||89.80||61||Had Bye|
|23||Kenny Golladay||DET||87.80||52||Had Bye|
Over the next couple of weeks, we will also review QBs and TEs. We will skip PKs and DSTs.
I had some personal issues this week and did not have an opportunity to include the Consistency Rankings to ADP here. Sorry about that. Scanning the September 4 listing though, I noted that Consistency would likely edge ADP out for WRs. Although I don’t think it would be as big a beating as in RBs. As we noted above, WRs are harder to predict than any of the other positions.
That is why I suggest that in draft preparation, using several sources and compiling one’s own rankings. My teams have WRs this year like Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas, as well as lesser ranked WRs during the summer like Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Taylor Gabriel and Kenny Golladay. The latter six were far from top ranked back then, but have all produced for me exceptionally well.
Selecting them was my judgment alone. I certainly did not use ADP. Three of these leagues are experts’ leagues with industry experts and the other two have savvy, veteran owners. My own rankings were pretty much spot on, but the analytical software told me my teams suck. They in fact suck so much that I have three 5-1, two 3-3 and one 2-4 teams. If only they would suck so bad every year. LOL All the teams except the 2-4 one, are top 3 teams in their respective leagues.
In my last article, I referenced consistency rankings and compared them to ADP, pretty clearly showing that in regards to RBs, consistency rankings are much more accurate. I was surprised to receive over 20 emails from you readers asking me what the heck is this consistency stuff you are talking about? I apologize for my oversight. Here are links to two articles that I think will explain things to get you up to speed on the latest nuances in fantasy football.
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Ask the Experts
When my friend Andy Richardson invited me to provide material for his weekly Fantasy Index Thursday morning "Ask the Experts" column, I was thrilled and honored. Here is the October 18, 2018 article from our friends at Fantasy Index. Check out all our comments this week as we answer the question: “Some big names are being bandied about in trade rumors. Pick one player you wish would be traded, and to where, and why him.”
We are now moving smoothly through the 2018 season. All of us at Big Guy Fantasy Sports are intent on helping you become the champions you want to be. With our poignant articles and being the home base for the consistency theory, a sound, mathematically-based alternative to ADP, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That my friends, is easy. We start over and do it all again in 2019!
Good luck! Have fun!