One thing I have learned over the years, is that in fantasy football, we use players who have what call separate seasons within the season. The player pool, much like the stock market and futures market, fluctuates constantly, with values changing on a weekly basis.
One extreme example is Le’Veon Bell. When we drafted him, he was a Top 5 player in most drafts. By the time I drafted him in a late-drafting league, I got him on a gamble at 2.01. His current re-drafter value today as Week 3 approaches, is pretty close to zero, in my opinion. Oddly enough, I do not believe his dynasty value has fallen that dramatically. For a dynasty owner Bell is staying healthy by not playing and almost certainly will play somewhere next season.
From the moment a player is drafted, he has a value. That perceived value is determined by the masses and determines where in the positional rakings he falls in relationship to other players. Historically, rookies are over-valued initially. Over the course of their first season they gain experience and they begin to see their values rise. As we have discussed in previous articles, a high percentage of rookies fail.
Taking a look at the 2018 crop of rookies, we see what is basically a work in process. Other than Saquon Barkley, nobody we drafted is really showing signs of the success we had anticipated. There are only five newcomers averaging in double figures so far after two games. We didn’t even know about Dissly and Lindsay a few weeks ago.
- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG—23.80 FPPG, #6 Ranked RB (Drafted #1.02)
- QB Sam Darnold, NYJ—17.85 FPPG, #24 Ranked QB (Drafted #1.03)
- TE Will Dissly, SEA—16.35 FPPG, #3 Ranked TE (Drafted #4.20)
- RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN—15.15 FPPG, #14 Ranked RB (Undrafted Free Agent)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF—11.88 FPPG, #30 Ranked QB (Drafted #1.07)
Does one write off all the other rookies drafted? No! This recap just gives us scoring facts that help us to understand why drafting rookies is such an uncertain risk. Not such good players at first, it usually is the RB position with the most instant gratification. QBs take about a year, while WRs and TEs take up to a couple years. Remember the 3rd year WR theory.
Let’s shift our focus now to the player pool as a whole. Here is a sampling of players that many of you are probably deliberating what to do with. The concept here is to sell traditionally lower ranked players who are scoring abnormally high and to conversely buy higher ranked players playing below your expectations. A key part of this evaluation is your decisiveness on whether not so good players and strong players scoring at an abnormally low pace all revert to the levels you expect them to be at.
- QB Blake Bortles, JAC—26.65 FPPG, #7 Ranked QB SELL
- QB Andy Dalton, CIN—24.60 FPPG, #10 Ranked QB SELL
- QB DeShaun Watson, HOU—21.35 FPPG, #20 Ranked QB BUY
- RB Adrian Peterson, WAS—16.30 FPPG, #11 Ranked RB SELL
- RB Jay Ajayi, PHI—14.95 FPPG, #15 Ranked RB SELL
- RB Jerome Howard, CHI—12.75 FPPG, #24 Ranked RB BUY
- RB Alex Collins, BAL—10.45 FPPG, #30 Ranked RB BUY
- RB Kareem Hunt, KC—9.95 FPPG, #34 Ranked RB BUY
- RB Kerryon Johnson, DET—9.15 FPPG, #35 Ranked RB BUY
- WR Kenny Stills, MIA—15.15 FPPG, #28 Ranked WR SELL
- WR Dede Westbrook, JAC—14.15 FPPG, #35 Ranked WR BUY
- WR Willie Snead, BAL—12.65 FPPG, #37 Ranked WR BUY
- WR Calvin Ridley, ATL—8.35 FPPG, #63 Ranked WR BUY
- WR Martavis Bryant, OAK—7.00 FPPG, #70 Ranked WR BUY
- WR James Washington, PIT—4.20 FPPG, #90 Ranked WR BUY
- TE Austin Hooper, ATL—11.15 FPPG, #11 Ranked TE SELL
- TE Trey Burton, CHI—7.35 FPPG, #19 Ranked TE BUY
- TE David Njoku, CLE—5.15 FPPG, #30 Ranked TE BUY
Now, it is up to you. Get out there and do some buying and selling. You never know what might happen in fantasy football. Values can change with the tweak of a tendon or bone. Take advantage of your edge and improve your team.
We are now starting to move smoothly through the 2018 season. All of us at Big Guy Fantasy Sports are intent on helping you become the champions you want to be. With our poignant articles and being the home base for the consistency theory, a sound, mathematically-based alternative to ADP, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That my friends, is easy. We start over and do it all again in 2019!
Good luck! Have fun!