Advanced Consistency Analytics: xConsistency – WR – 2017

Bob Lung takes you to the next level with xConsistency and how it can help separate the Wide Receivers with similar consistency and identify who is more valuable to your Fantasy teams.  You can follow Bob on Twitter at @bob_lung.

Consistency in Fantasy Football is a very important factor in helping Fantasy owners make more informed decisions on who to draft and who to start/sit during the season. If you’re new to the Consistency concept in Fantasy Football, I highly recommend reading some of the Introduction articles located on the home page of www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. If you’re already a reader and follower of the site, then I would like to introduce you to a new twist to the Consistency world: xConsistency.

The xConsistency is similar to xERA in baseball as it’s identifying the “TRUE” Consistency value of the player. The formula is as follows:

               (Total Fantasy Points Scored / Total Games Played) X Clutch Rate

The xConsistency factor will separate players with similar Consistency but different Total Points Score due to either fewer games or Clutch performances with lesser points scored. For example: let’s look at Top 12 receivers last year with similar Clutch Rates:

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

CR Rank

xCon

Rank

DeAndre Hopkins

311.80

1

15

15

100%

1

20.79

1

Antonio Brown

308.30

2

11

14

79%

8

17.40

2

Jarvis Landry

264.00

4

15

16

94%

2

15.51

3

Keenan Allen

284.20

3

13

16

81%

4

14.39

4

Michael Thomas

258.50

6

14

16

88%

3

14.22

5

Odell Beckham

74.00

84

3

4

75%

12

13.88

6

Julio Jones

251.90

7

13

16

81%

5

12.75

7

Larry Fitzgerald

260.60

5

12

16

75%

9

12.22

8

Tyreek Hill

241.20

9

11

15

73%

13

11.74

9

A.J. Green

230.80

10

12

16

75%

10

10.82

10

Mike Evans

201.10

17

12

15

80%

6

10.73

11

Doug Baldwin

221.30

14

12

16

75%

11

10.37

12


It starts off with the easiest xConsistency calculation of DeAndre Hopkins. He averaged 20.79 Fantasy Points per Game for 100% Consistency, therefore, his xCon rate is 20.79. Antonio Brown was only 3.50 points behind Hopkins in only 14 games, so while his average Fantasy points per game were higher, due to lower Clutch Rate of 79%, Brown falls short of Hopkins xConsistency rate coming in at 17.40. Jarvis Landry ended the year ranked second in Consistency with a 94% Clutch Rate. However, since he was almost 45 points behind Brown, his xConsistency ranked him third with a 15.51. As you go farther down the Top 12, we various total Fantasy points rankings and Clutch Rate rankings balancing out to their respective xConsistency. There was a ton of hatred for Mike Evans due to his 17th ranking in total points, however, combined with his 80% Clutch Rate brings him up to an 11th place ranking in xConsistency.

Now, we’re going to look at a group of running backs that are currently ranked between 13th and 24th in xConsistency and pick out some items that may surprise you.

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

CR Rank

xCon

Rank

Davante Adams

222.50

13

9

14

64%

20

10.17

13

Marvin Jones

225.10

11

11

16

69%

14

9.71

14

Adam Thielen

243.80

8

10

16

63%

24

9.60

15

Robert Woods

165.30

33

8

12

67%

18

9.23

16

Josh Gordon

57.50

101

4

5

80%

7

9.20

17

Stefon Diggs

198.20

19

9

14

64%

21

9.06

18

Demaryius Thomas

207.90

16

11

16

69%

15

8.97

19

Golden Tate

224.50

12

10

16

63%

25

8.84

20

JuJu Smith-Schuster

191.70

21

9

14

64%

22

8.76

21

Brandin Cooks

219.20

15

10

16

63%

26

8.63

22

Chris Hogan

109.60

63

6

9

67%

19

8.16

23

Mohamed Sanu

174.85

29

10

15

67%

16

7.81

24


As we look at the receivers who fell into the WR2 area for xConsistency, we see some players who had very low total Fantasy points, mostly due to fewer games played. Robert Woods missed four games but ranked 18th in consistency at 67%. That combined with his solid Fantasy points per game brings him up to 16th in xConsistency. Josh Gordon finally made an appearance in 2017 and played very well in his five games. His 80% consistency combined with his Fantasy points per game ranks him 17th in xConsistency. He’ll probably have a pretty high ADP in 2018, especially if the Browns get a solid quarterback.

Some players went the opposite direction from their ranking in total points due to their lower Clutch Rate and thus had a lower xConsistency number. The two Detroit Lions receivers, Marvin Jones and Golden Tate ranked 11th and 12th respectively in total points. However, Jones’ Clutch Rate was 69% and Tate’s was 63%, ranking 14th and 25th respectively in Consistency. This drop them to 14th for Jones and 20th for Tate in xConsistency. Adam Thielen and Brandon Cooks had similar drops, and this should be a red flag this year as their ADP’s may be overvalued.

Looking at the WR3 group of receivers in xConsistency, we see many surprises of receivers who had down years like Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffery, and Sterling Shepard. While some of the younger receivers moved up into this level and may very well continue upward like Devin Funchess, Cooper Kupp, DeVante Parker and Robby Anderson. Where will these players go in 2018? It’s hard to tell until the free agency and the NFL draft settles the dust.

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

CR Rank

xCon

Rank

Devin Funchess

195.00

20

10

16

63%

27

7.68

25

Michael Crabtree

167.80

31

9

14

64%

23

7.67

26

Alshon Jeffery

189.90

22

10

16

63%

28

7.48

27

Sterling Shepard

144.50

42

6

11

55%

36

7.23

28

Cooper Kupp

178.90

25

9

15

60%

31

7.16

29

Pierre Garcon

90.00

74

5

8

63%

29

7.09

30

Robby Anderson

200.00

18

9

16

56%

35

7.00

31

Mike Wallace

151.20

38

10

15

67%

17

6.75

32

DeVante Parker

130.00

52

8

13

62%

30

6.20

33

Marqise Lee

145.90

41

8

14

57%

32

5.94

34

Jamison Crowder

167.40

32

8

15

53%

37

5.91

35

Dez Bryant

188.50

23

8

16

50%

41

5.89

36


Here is the list of the 65 Top Wide Receivers (ranked by xConsistency) for 2017:

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

Clutch Rate

CR Rank

xCon

Rank

DeAndre Hopkins

311.80

1

15

15

100%

1

20.79

1

Antonio Brown

308.30

2

11

14

79%

8

17.40

2

Jarvis Landry

264.00

4

15

16

94%

2

15.51

3

Keenan Allen

284.20

3

13

16

81%

4

14.39

4

Michael Thomas

258.50

6

14

16

88%

3

14.22

5

Odell Beckham

74.00

84

3

4

75%

12

13.88

6

Julio Jones

251.90

7

13

16

81%

5

12.75

7

Larry Fitzgerald

260.60

5

12

16

75%

9

12.22

8

Tyreek Hill

241.20

9

11

15

73%

13

11.74

9

A.J. Green

230.80

10

12

16

75%

10

10.82

10

Mike Evans

201.10

17

12

15

80%

6

10.73

11

Doug Baldwin

221.30

14

12

16

75%

11

10.37

12

Davante Adams

222.50

13

9

14

64%

20

10.17

13

Marvin Jones

225.10

11

11

16

69%

14

9.71

14

Adam Thielen

243.80

8

10

16

63%

24

9.60

15

Robert Woods

165.30

33

8

12

67%

18

9.23

16

Josh Gordon

57.50

101

4

5

80%

7

9.20

17

Stefon Diggs

198.20

19

9

14

64%

21

9.06

18

Demaryius Thomas

207.90

16

11

16

69%

15

8.97

19

Golden Tate

224.50

12

10

16

63%

25

8.84

20

JuJu Smith-Schuster

191.70

21

9

14

64%

22

8.76

21

Brandin Cooks

219.20

15

10

16

63%

26

8.63

22

Chris Hogan

109.60

63

6

9

67%

19

8.16

23

Mohamed Sanu

174.85

29

10

15

67%

16

7.81

24

Devin Funchess

195.00

20

10

16

63%

27

7.68

25

Michael Crabtree

167.80

31

9

14

64%

23

7.67

26

Alshon Jeffery

189.90

22

10

16

63%

28

7.48

27

Sterling Shepard

144.50

42

6

11

55%

36

7.23

28

Cooper Kupp

178.90

25

9

15

60%

31

7.16

29

Pierre Garcon

90.00

74

5

8

63%

29

7.09

30

Robby Anderson

200.00

18

9

16

56%

35

7.00

31

Mike Wallace

151.20

38

10

15

67%

17

6.75

32

DeVante Parker

130.00

52

8

13

62%

30

6.20

33

Marqise Lee

145.90

41

8

14

57%

32

5.94

34

Jamison Crowder

167.40

32

8

15

53%

37

5.91

35

Dez Bryant

188.50

23

8

16

50%

41

5.89

36

Nelson Agholor

187.50

24

8

16

50%

42

5.86

37

Amari Cooper

158.40

35

7

14

50%

46

5.66

38

DeSean Jackson

138.60

45

8

14

57%

33

5.64

39

Ted Ginn

159.60

34

8

15

53%

38

5.64

40

Rishard Matthews

156.20

37

7

14

50%

47

5.58

41

Randall Cobb

157.00

36

8

15

53%

39

5.55

42

Jermaine Kearse

176.00

28

8

16

50%

43

5.50

43

Dede Westbrook

66.90

90

4

7

57%

34

5.45

44

Marquise Goodwin

168.60

30

8

16

50%

44

5.27

45

Sammy Watkins

146.30

40

8

15

53%

40

5.17

46

Kenny Stills

178.70

26

7

16

44%

51

4.91

47

Kelvin Benjamin

135.20

47

7

14

50%

48

4.83

48

Paul Richardson

150.30

39

8

16

50%

45

4.70

49

Will Fuller

113.20

61

4

10

40%

54

4.53

50

Albert Wilson

116.00

59

6

13

46%

50

4.10

51

Emmanuel Sanders

114.50

60

5

12

42%

52

4.01

52

Allen Hurns

99.40

66

4

10

40%

55

3.98

53

Dontrelle Inman

62.40

94

4

8

50%

49

3.90

54

Jeremy Maclin

102.00

65

5

12

42%

53

3.57

55

T.Y. Hilton

177.60

27

5

16

31%

63

3.44

56

Tyrell Williams

139.80

43

6

16

38%

57

3.32

57

Travis Benjamin

130.30

51

6

16

38%

58

3.09

58

Danny Amendola

138.90

44

5

15

33%

59

3.06

59

Jordy Nelson

137.20

46

5

15

33%

60

3.02

60

Martavis Bryant

130.50

50

5

15

33%

61

2.87

61

Brandon Marshall

33.40

125

2

5

40%

56

2.67

62

Adam Humphries

130.70

49

5

16

31%

64

2.53

63

Keelan Cole

134.80

48

4

15

27%

68

2.43

64

Corey Coleman

65.50

91

3

9

33%

62

2.40

65


Summary

The xConsistency formula and 2017 chart above helps provide a more truer value for Consistency and its role in helping Fantasy owners find a new edge in their draft planning. The Clutch Rate isn’t dead by any stretch and should continue to be used in your analysis during your draft prep and weekly start/sit decisions. I’d love to hear your feedback regarding the xConsistency calculation. You can hit me up on Twitter @bob_lung or email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Thanks as always for reading and following!

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