Fantasy Baseball 2020: OF - Consistency Preview

Aaron Pags shares the most consistent outfielders of 2019 along with his 2020 rankings. Follow him @FantasyTriage

Outfielders have become amongst the most coveted fantasy baseball managers around. A handful have us salivating over the top few picks in our home leagues. The lure of 30-30, 40-40, heck why not 50-50? These athletes are Major League Baseball's prized attractions.

The top 4 outfielders of 2019 smashed 700 points (well Trout came up 1 shy but you know, round up)! That is rarified air my friends. Even in a starting pitching heavy scoring system, a couple of these studs would have finished in the top 10 pitchers with those point totals!! Needless to say, you are well rewarded for building your fantasy offense around them.

Below I will sort through the position giving my 2020 rankings and highlight a standout, consistent player in each tier. Keep in mind our scoring system is as follows:

Hit

0.5pts

HR

4pts

Run

2pts

RBI

2pts

SB

2pts


If you want to see who are the most consistent players in your league, go here and enter in your own scoring methods: https://www.bigguyfantasysports.com/phpcalcs/mlb/index.php

Tier One

As most leagues require many more outfielders to be rostered compared to the other fantasy hitting positions, there is a tendency to overlook the advantage that comes with rostering an elite outfielder. The near 100 point differential between OF4 and OF11 along with the 200 point separation between that same OF4 and OF30 is often dismissed. Celebrate the spoils that come with a top pick in your draft, for this, it is what you are in for!

Player Name

Total Pts

Rank

Total CW

Total WP

CR

2019 Rank

2020 Tier

2020 Rank

Ronald Acuna Jr

782.00

1

18

24

75%

3

OF1A

1

Cody Bellinger

758.00

2

18

24

75%

5

OF1A

2

Christian Yelich

710.50

3

16

23

70%

16

OF1A

3

Mike Trout

699.00

4

18

22

82%

1

OF1A

4

Mookie Betts

647.00

7

19

24

79%

2

OF1A

5


A king has been dethroned. For the last 6 or 7 seasons Mike Trout has sat atop the outfield rankings, but come 2020 draft season it is likely he will not be the first selection. Trout is coming off his 3rd American League MVP however, he has some stiff competition in the fantasy baseball universe now with the emergence of a few prolific stars. Should you have a top 5 pick in your draft, it is probably a great idea to nab one from this group to get you started.

Tier Two

The hits keep coming in the second tier, albeit with a few less of them throughout the season. It’s obvious that without the luck of the draw you will not fall into one of the above outfielders but selecting one of these fine hitters as your first OF should do the trick.

Player Name

Total Pts

Rank

Total CW

Total WP

CR

2019 Rank

2020 Tier

2020 Rank

JD Martinez

613.00

10

16

24

67%

21

OF1B

6

Juan Soto

663.00

6

18

24

75%

9

OF1B

7

Bryce Harper

631.50

8

18

24

75%

10

OF1B

8

Jorge Soler

666.00

5

18

24

75%

8

OF1B

9

Aaron Judge

414.00

52

12

16

75%

7

OF1B

10

Yordan Alvarez

426.50

48

11

15

73%

12

OF1B

11

George Springer

599.00

12

14

20

70%

18

OF1B

12

Eddie Rosario

595.00

14

17

23

74%

11

OF1B

13

Charlie Blackmon

595.50

13

16

23

70%

17

OF1B

14

Nelson Cruz

594.50

15

15

20

75%

4

OF1B

15


If Eddie Rosario played almost ANYWHERE else, he would be a household name. Rosario took the age 27 leap in 2019, setting career highs in runs, home runs, and RBI. This Minnesota lineup is once again stacked and Eddie will continue to be right in the middle of things in 2020. I would not be surprised to see another year of career highs for this underrated star.

Tier Three

A fine group awaits you in this tier of outfielders. Consistency starts to diminish here just a tad but I believe this will be a group of movers up the rankings this season. Many of this conglomerate is still searching for that big contract payday and I predict a handful of them will show their worth in 2020. 

Player Name

Total Pts

Rank

Total CW

Total WP

CR

2019 Rank

2020 Tier

2020 Rank

Ketel Marte

619.50

9

11

24

46%

60

OF2

16

Austin Meadows

563.00

19

12

22

55%

42

OF2

17

Trey Mancini

609.50

11

16

24

67%

20

OF2

18

Starling Marte

579.50

17

16

22

73%

14

OF2

19

Kris Bryant

578.00

18

14

24

58%

33

OF2

20

Michael Conforto

548.00

22

18

24

75%

6

OF2

21

Ramon Laureano

455.00

40

12

19

63%

24

OF2

22

Max Kepler

588.00

16

14

24

58%

30

OF2

23

Marcel Ozuna

528.00

25

15

21

71%

15

OF2

24

Whit Merrifield

554.00

21

16

24

67%

19

OF2

25

Kyle Schwarber

556.50

20

15

24

63%

23

OF2

26

Nick Castellanos

547.00

23

13

24

54%

45

OF2

27

Eloy Jimenez

467.00

39

11

21

52

47

OF2

28


Michael Conforto has steadily improved his counting numbers across the board in each of the last three seasons for the New York Mets. Over that same span, he's made more contact as evidenced by his decreasing strikeout rate* (2017: 25.7%, 2018: 24.9%, 2019: 23.0%). It is not a stretch to forecast Conforto for a 35 HR, 100 run, 100 RBI type 2020 season. He also checks the consistency box we love to see at 75% CR last season. Couple those numbers with his upcoming free agency after the 2021 season and Conforto has every reason to be a week in and week out asset for your squad this year.

Tier Four

This eclectic collection of players is where the risky fantasy managers and those steady, veteran leaning folks will diverge in the 2020 outfield strategy game. Go with the safe play or take on the uncertainty of young talent? The choice is yours in tier four.

Player Name

Total Pts

Rank

Total CW

Total WP

CR

2019 Rank

2020 Tier

2020 Rank

Joey Gallo

332.50

83

8

13

62%

26

OF3

29

Bryan Reynolds

447.50

42

16

22

73%

13

OF3

30

Shin-Soo Choo

482.50

36

15

24

63%

22

OF3

31

Jeff McNeil

489.50

32

14

23

61%

27

OF3

32

Michael Brantley

524.00

26

14

24

58%

35

OF3

33

David Dahl

380.50

65

7

16

44%

64

OF3

34

Khris Davis

401.00

54

10

24

42%

68

OF3

35

Yasiel Puig

520.50

27

14

24

58%

34

OF3

36

Tommy Pham

486.00

35

14

24

58%

31

OF3

37

Andrew Benintendi

417.00

51

9

24

38%

79

OF3

38

Victor Robles

481.00

37

11

24

46%

57

OF3

39

Brett Gardner

501.00

29

13

23

57%

37

OF3

40

Hunter Dozier

491.00

31

12

22

55%

41

OF3

41

Oscar Mercado

384.00

62

10

18

56%

39

OF3

42

Franmil Reyes

488.00

33

12

24

50%

52

OF3

43

Mark Canha

441.00

45

10

22

45%

62

OF3

44

Shohei Ohtani

377.00

67

9

18

50%

53

OF3

45

Knowing your league settings is an overstated and undervalued bit of advice from the fantasy expert community. Few epitomize this mantra more than Joey Gallo. He can hit 40 homers in his sleep. In a system that rewards the long ball, Joey is an inexpensive target with mega-point upside. In just half a season in 2019, Gallo launched 22 bombs following up on his 41 and 40 round-trippers in '17 and '18 respectively. Respect the power, know your settings, and gain the advantage over your competition this season.

Tier Five

We have come to the best of the rest time. With certainty, I can tell you this is not going to be every outfielder drafted in your league. Different strokes for different folks and especially near the end of drafts everyone values/needs something different. Since you are reading this, it's likely you value consistency even late. Great news. There's even a touch of that in this herd.

Player Name

Total Pts

Rank

Total CW

Total WP

CR

2019 Rank

2020 Tier

2020 Rank

Aristides Aquino

243.50

113

7

8

88%

DNQ

OF4/5

46

Scott Kingery

397.00

56

7

21

33%

89

OF4/5

47

JD Davis

374.50

68

7

24

29%

109

OF4/5

48

Joc Pederson

473.00

38

15

24

63%

25

OF4/5

49

Randall Grichuk

486.50

34

14

24

58%

32

OF4/5

50

Danny Santana

498.50

30

9

23

39%

73

OF4/5

51

Byron Buxton

296.50

93

6

18

33%

87

OF4/5

52

Alex Gordon

434.00

47

12

24

50%

50

OF4/5

53

Ryan Braun

435.50

46

11

24

46%

59

OF4/5

54

Hunter Renfroe

445.00

43

11

23

48%

54

OF4/5

55

Lourdes Gurriel Jr

339.50

79

7

15

47%

55

OF4/5

56

Lorenzo Cain

385.50

60

8

24

33%

91

OF4/5

57

Adam Eaton

448.00

41

9

24

38%

76

OF4/5

58

Nomar Mazara

411.50

53

7

24

29%

107

OF4/5

59

Justin Upton

219.00

127

5

12

42%

67

OF4/5

60

Austin Riley

280.50

102

8

14

57%

38

OF4/5

61

Willie Calhoun

297.50

92

9

15

60%

28

OF4/5

62

Teoscar Hernandez

370.50

69

8

22

36%

82

OF4/5

63

Avisail Garcia

418.50

50

12

24

50%

49

OF4/5

64

Anthony Santander

339.50

79

8

16

50%

51

OF4/5

65

David Peralta

310.50

87

7

18

39%

75

OF4/5

66

Kevin Kiermaier

364.00

71

9

23

39%

74

OF4/5

67

Mitch Haniger

251.00

111

4

10

40%

72

OF4/5

68

Jackie Bradley Jr

385.50

61

10

24

42%

66

OF4/5

69

Nick Markakis

332.50

82

8

18

44%

65

OF4/5

70

Kole Calhoun

531.00

24

14

24

58%

36

OF4/5

71

Wil Myers

370.00

70

11

24

46%

56

OF4/5

72


Let's talk about one of my favorite late rounders, Anthony Santander. The Orioles are destined for the cellar which is one reason Santander is going unnoticed. He appears to have the inside track to LF for the O's and prior to his 1 for 23 to end the season, Anthony was batting .292 with a .854 OPS and 20 bombs in 90ish games. Santander was just 17 years old when he entered the Indians organization in 2012 from his home country of Venezuela. He was a Rule 5 pick in 2016 and finally looks to be fulfilling the promise Cleveland saw in the young man. He is entering his age 25 season with a ton of minor league experience and growth behind him. Look for him to a bright spot in a mostly dark Baltimore season.

Here's a scatterplot of the most consistent and inconsistent outfielders in 2019:

Youngsters to watch in Spring Training

Opportunity is the master key to fantasy success in all sports. This spring three young outfielders will be vying for their own opportunity to make their mark on the league and perhaps on your fantasy teams. Kyle Tucker in Houston, Luis Robert with the White Sox, and Alex Verdugo of the Dodgers are those three for me.

Robert showcased his talents across three levels in 2019 producing a 30-30 minor league campaign. He also has a clear path to the White Sox center field gig.

Another 30-30 minor leaguers, Kyle Tucker accomplished this feat in just 4 months from 4/24-8/30! If he can win right field for the Astros, Kyle could be in OF3 territory.

Alex Verdugo has a few things in favor of solidifying his opportunity in Los Angeles. He is a reverse split left-handed hitter, can play all three outpatient positions, and after not playing much last April and May Verdugo was in the lineup 89% through July batting .283. He was bitten by an oblique in August, and without a reinjury in Spring Training I expect a fully healthy Alex to produce in that lineup.

That puts a bow on my 2019 consistency review and 2020 rankings preview of the outfield. Finding a breakout at the position will be a standings booster, especially since you will have to roster as many or more at this position than all the other offensive positions on your weekly starting rosters.

If you haven't already, go read up on each position's consistency review and rankings preview for the 2020 season.

*K% courtesy Fangraphs

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