Each week, Ron Rigney uses the Consistency Forecaster tool from Big Guy Fantasy Sports to help you make the right call on starts advice and football strategy!
Week 1 – NFL Fantasy Start/Sit: QB
Start – Baker Mayfield – TB @ CIN
There’s a lot to like about this matchup on paper for both sides. Neither defense looks good in 2026, and that should show up here. Vegas is setting the total at 50.5, the highest of any Week 1 game. Jalen McMillan and Emeka Egbuka are trending in the right direction, but even if they aren’t, I still think there’s a clutch game to be had here, as the Bucs will have to throw a ton to keep up with the Cincy offense. Mayfield will have a chip on his shoulder all season because of his contract situation, and I’m here for it.
Sit – Patrick Mahomes – KC vs. DEN
I think we are in the “better real-life QB than fantasy QB” era for Mahomes. Having said that, there is still some fantasy goodness left in the tank, but I’m not sure we see that in Week 1. Coming off a major knee injury against one of the best defenses in the NFL isn’t how you want to begin. I look for the team to lean heavily on Kenneth Walker III especially early on, and I don’t think we see that mobility that extends pass plays right away from Mahomes. I would look elsewhere.
Week 1 – NFL Fantasy Start/Sit: RB
Start – David Montgomery – HOU vs. BUF
This one should be based on defense and running, so Monty should get a fair amount of touches. The Bills’ defense allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing RBs in 2025, and they enter the season with some new parts and, most importantly, a new defensive coordinator. Houston will look to dominate on defense and not throw a ton (though I think they will be better in the passing game than others do). Montgomery feels like a nice RB2 start this week.
Sit – MarShawn Lloyd – GB @ MIN
Just because you acquired the hot waiver name doesn’t mean you need to always shoehorn them into your lineup. We don’t know whether Lloyd becomes the lead dog or if it’s a committee approach with Chris Brooks and the newly acquired Kaleb Johnson. Outside of that, Lloyd has only seen six NFL carries, and the Vikings defense was one of the best against fantasy backs in 2025 and should still be stout in 2026. Be careful with this one.
Week 1 NFL Fantasy Start/Sit: WR
Start – DK Metcalf – PIT vs. ATL
I don’t love the Steelers’ passing game from a long-term fantasy standpoint. However, there will be weeks where the matchup favors their pass catchers. Week 1 is one of those. Atlanta struggled against opposing WRs last season, allowing the ninth most fantasy points to the position. They will be without two key pieces of their pass rush, which figures to give Ole Man Rodgers time to find his targets. There should be enough to earn a clutch game this week.
Sit – Courtland Sutton – DEN @ KC
We love Sutton at BGFS, but I don’t like him this week. The Chiefs on the road are a tough one under any circumstances. Add in that he is clearly the WR2 in this offense behind Waddle, and we simply don’t know what his target share will look like. Don’t forget Bo Nix was anything but consistent last season with a 47% clutch rating. To be fair, I expect more consistency out of Nix this season, but we need to see this offense on the field to trust it more.
Week 1 NFL Fantasy Start/Sit: TE
Start – Dallas Goedert – PHI vs. WAS
Goedert has finished in the Top 6 in clutch games in both of the last two seasons. Philly finally dealt A.J. Brown in the offseason, and Makai Lemon didn’t have a spectacular preseason, so Goedert figures to be in line for a large number of targets. The Commanders were one of the worst against the position in 2025, and I don’t see that changing too much. We don’t need to worry about Eli Stowers just yet.
Sit – Brenton Strange – JAX vs. CLE
Strange figures to be a fringe starter in most formats anyway. In Week 1, there are a lot of questions about the Jags offense, but one thing is clear. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Jacksonville passing game. The matchup isn’t great either, as the Browns were solid against fantasy TE last season. Whether he records a clutch game will depend on reaching the end zone most weeks. I don’t see a clutch game in Week 1 unless that happens.
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