Football
Fantasy Football’s 2025 Smash-Pick Breakout Wide Receiver!
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Everyone always loves searching for that NFL player or two that’ll be fantasy football’s next big breakout!
In fantasy football drafts, everyone is always looking for that third-year wide receiver to be fantasy football’s next breakout star. Well, in fantasy football drafts this year, Zay Flowers looks to be that guy. He improved in his second year in the NFL, and he was used in a more lucrative manner for fantasy purposes. At his current fantasy football ADP, he’s a smash pick for your teams and has a great chance to eclipse 1,000 yards for the second straight season.
In his second season in the NFL, Flowers caught 74 of 116 targets for 1,059 yards and four touchdowns. While his consistency actually dipped from his rookie season (69%) to year number two (59%), there’s a lot to like about him being a more consistent option in 2025. First and foremost, he was one of just six players to have at least five 100+ yard games last season. This exclusive list features other players like Puka Nacua, Terry McLaurin, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown! Talk about rare company!
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Better Usage (Both Quality and Quantity)
Compared to his rookie season, his yards per reception jumped by over three yards, and how Baltimore used him was a big reason for that. You’ll see in the table below that his average depth of target (aDOT) doubled, as well as some big advancements in other important categories for predicting future (and sustaining past) success:
| Zay Flowers | Air Yards Share | aDOT | Target Share | Target Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | First Read Rate | FP Points Per Route Run | Expected Per Route Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19.7% | 5.0 | 27.7% | 0.21 | 1.70 | 27.8% | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| 2024 | 30% | 10.9 | 24.1% | 0.26 | 2.35 | 30% | 0.47 | 0.50 |
(Data is courtesy of Fantasy Points’ data suite*)
To sum up the table above, he used downfield more, which is better for bigger yardage totals, and these downfield targets are the more lucrative targets when it comes to fantasy football. This is exactly why we saw the noticeable jumps in his fantasy points per route run and expected fantasy points per route run. For comparison’s sake, his fantasy points per route run were in line with Courtland Sutton and Davante Adams, while his expected fantasy points per route run were actually higher than the likes of Brian Thomas Jr., Tee Higgins, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite.
Elite Separator
When you look back at Flowers’ rookie season, per Pro Football Focus, he only had a 1.29 yards per route run (Y/RR) against man coverage. He was fine against zone (1.96 Y/RR), but ideally, we want to see better marks against man coverage. Well, he checked that box in 2024, posting a 2.41 Y/RR against man coverage, as well as improving to 2.07 Y/RR against zone, per Pro Football Focus.
When diving into his separation numbers, Flowers is elite. Of wide receivers with at least 200 routes run in the 2024 season, Flowers was tied for fourth in separation score and ninth in win rate, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. This sort of separation earns targets and trust from quarterback Lamar Jackson, and it won’t be surprising when Flowers sees 125+ targets this season.
Final Fantasy Football Outlook
After finishing as the WR29 in his rookie season, he finished as the WR24 last season, and he’s managed to be a top-30 fantasy WR despite scoring just 10 total touchdowns in his first two seasons. The Ravens use their tight ends so much in the red zone that Flowers may not possess elite touchdown upside, but he’s the alpha in the passing attack and will get 125+ targets this season. As mentioned earlier, he’s an elite separator who can dominate in the short-to-intermediate part of the field, and he’s a rock-solid WR2 who might slip in drafts due to being on a run-heavy Baltimore team. I’m expecting a career year for Flowers in 2025, featuring 125+ targets, 80+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, and a 66+ percent clutch rate.
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