Football
ADP Rising and Falling in Fantasy: J.K. Dobbins is climbing!
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For fantasy football, redraft leagues are starting up! The Average Draft Position (ADP) is starting to reflect those redraft tendencies. This week, we’ve got several big movers in the fantasy ADP rising and falling list!
You can feel it in the air, NFL games are coming, and we have one this week. It’s like Christmas in Summer, and fantasy football players are giddy.
With redraft leagues beginning to draft, it’s crucial to keep an eye on fantasy ADP (average draft position) movement. Training camp news and familiar names will dominate most headlines. Figuring out what’s noise and what’s important in those headlines is key!
Let’s take a look at a few important players and dig into what you need to know! Also, sign up today to get full access to all the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football ADP Updates (with consistency) – 7/28/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP
RB J.K. Dobbins DEN Fantasy ADP Rising and Falling.
The Denver Broncos had a top offense in 2024, 10th in points per game last season at 25.0. There is optimism for an increase this season. A significant reason for the projection increase is the addition of J.K. Dobbins, Evan Engram, and the drafting of R.J. Harvey (2nd round, 60th overall).
Dobbins is the big name that most fantasy football managers recognize. Just last season, he had 1,000+ yards from scrimmage (905 rushing) with the Chargers in just 13 games. Although Harvey got a lot of buzz right after the draft, redraft players have trended towards Dobbins, who has moved up in ADP (up almost 20 picks this week).
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(ADP +19.3, pick 127.7, Rostered 62.3% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Last season, Dobbins was RB18 in points per game, averaging 14.8. His Clutch Rate (CR) was solid at 62% although he shared a backfield with Gus Edwards. Another year away from injury, he projects as the RB1 for Denver. A reason for that is he had a career-high 32 receptions last season, and Javonte Williams, Broncos’ RB1 in 2024, had 52 receptions. Dobbins is set to reprise that crucial role this season.
With ADP rising and falling, the Dobbins narrative is difficult to grasp. He’s being drafted as RB37 in the 10th round. Sure, Harvey (ADP of RB24) has the rookie shine, but Dobbins should be going at least around him, if not before him. Keep drafting shares of Dobbins at a discount, and you’ll be glad you did.
RB Quinshon Judkins CLE
This one is tough. Quinshon Judkins is facing scrutiny due to his recent legal issues. He was arrested on domestic violence charges and is now on the outside of the league, looking in. His peers are all signed, but he’s the lone remaining rookie from the 2025 NFL draft who remains unsigned.
Judkins is an extremely talented running back who was drafted in the 2nd round (36th overall). His draft capital was based on numbers from his time at Ohio State and amazing combine metrics. The expectations were that he was going to be an immediate starter for the Browns.
(ADP -45.6, pick 116.8, Rostered 85.1% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Judkins was a Third-Team All-Big Ten conference player who led the Buckeyes in rushing with 1,060 yards. Between 2023 and 2024, he had 29 rushing touchdowns (15 at Mississippi in 2023, 14 at Ohio State). Those numbers show the talent is undeniable, but Browns fans are understandably tired of the ongoing drama. The Deshaun Watson misconduct cases are still fresh in their minds.
I won’t speculate what may happen with Judkins in court. The fantasy community has passed judgment, Judkins is down over 45 picks this week. He’s the biggest mover I’ve seen in such a short time, and although I’ve seen some say he’s a “buy” in dynasty formats, for me, he’s a “do not touch” player.
TE Jonnu Smith PIT
As more fantasy managers begin doing their draft research, they are realizing Jonnu Smith is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. Down 28+ spots in ADP this week, consensus seems to be it’s not a good thing. Smith will be battling it out with Pat Freiermuth at the tight end position.
The ongoing battle between Smith and Freiermuth will be one to monitor. In that battle, both tight ends are capable of being a top-2 target earner for the Steelers. Outside of D.K. Metcalf, the Steelers feature a very weak receiving room that allows the tight ends to be featured.
(ADP -28.6, pick 148.5, Rostered 71.3% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Smith earned 111 targets last season in Miami. That number was good enough to get him to TE5 in points per game with 13.1. Freiermuth is a well-rounded tight end, but he’s never earned 100 targets in his 4 year career. That’s an advantage for Smith as it shows he can command high-level targets.
The falling ADP for Smith doesn’t add up. In this Steelers’ offense, the number 2 target earner will receive 100+ targets. Smith profiles to win that job, and that makes him a valuable ADP target at TE16. He has a ceiling of the top 6 (as we saw last season) and faces minimal competition. An easy click in round 12, especially if you waited on the tight end position.
RB Zach Charbonnet SEA Fantasy ADP Rising and Falling.
The Seattle Seahawks have a lot of new pieces. Sam Darnold is now the QB1, replacing Geno Smith, and they brought in Cooper Kupp to replace D.K. Metcalf (and to a lesser extent, Tyler Lockett). Those are both new to the Seahawks. In contrast, the running back hierarchy remains the same, where Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet sit atop the depth chart.
Charbonnet is an intriguing pick who has looked good when called upon. Like last season, when he had 569 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. More importantly, he took over as the 3rd-down back by catching 42 passes for 340 receiving yards (on 52 targets). Those numbers were good enough to have him as RB31 in points per game (11.00).
(ADP -18.3, pick 142.6, Rostered 73.7% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Walker missed 6 games last season. When given the opportunity in those missed games, Charbonnet turned it on. In games where he had more than 10 touches, he averaged 15.62 points per game. That mark would have made him RB17 for the season. Even as his team’s RB2, Charbonnet had a CR of 53%.
Just like legal matters, I do not predict injuries. Even without a predicted injury, though, Charbonnet holds stand-alone value. His RB31 overall finish means he should be drafted as an RB3 at his floor. However, he has RB1 potential should Walker miss any time. A late 11th-round pick, Charbonnet is set to pay off at his ADP. Dropping almost 20 picks this week makes that an even easier click.
QB Dak Prescott DAL
The Dallas Cowboys always find themselves in the media spotlight. It’s just who they are. Dak Prescott is the face of the franchise and finds himself in a heated debate on being a QB1 for this upcoming season. Prescott has history on his side, as a QB1 in every season where he has played in more than 16 games.
Injuries have caused Prescott to drop in some circles, as some fantasy drafters often have recency bias. His most recent season, last year, he was only able to suit up in 8 games. Secondly, due to the missed time and injuries, he finished as QB22 in points per game (15.6). That’s not great for fantasy managers.
(ADP +15.6, pick 121.1, Rostered 67.2% on ESPN redraft/snake)
Up over 15 picks this week, fantasy managers are high on Prescott repeating his QB1 season numbers of the past. Besides, we only have to go back to 2023 when Prescott finished as QB4 in points per game to see his ceiling (20.7). He was also QB5 in CR at 65% (among QBs who played 10 or more games) that season. Capable of high-end QB1 numbers when healthy, and his consistency backs that up.
The Cowboys added George Pickens to team up with CeeDee Lamb at wide receiver this offseason. Coincidentally, Prescott’s upside in the 10th round, and getting a QB1 that late, screams value. With that said, his lower rushing upside bothers me, but I won’t avoid him if he falls to me.
RB R.J. Harvey DEN Fantasy ADP Rising and Falling.
Above, I wrote about J.K. Dobbins and his high-end potential in the Denver Broncos’ backfield. He is on the rise this week. Hence, Harvey has been falling. His fall is over 15 picks this week, despite that fall, the rookie running back still goes 45 picks ahead of Dobbins.
Harvey is a 2nd round pick that Denver made a priority to obtain. Therefore, I think that Head Coach Sean Payton envisions a Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara-type backfield split in Denver. In that scenario, who’s who isn’t concrete, but that’s not important, as both roles have big-time fantasy potential.
(ADP -15.7, pick 82.3, Rostered 89.5% on ESPN redraft/snake)
I fully expect their ADP gap to close as fantasy managers continue to move Dobbins up draft boards as long as he’s healthy. Despite that, Harvey was great in college (UCF); he was tied for 4th last year with 22 rushing touchdowns, and his 1,577 rushing yards were 6th in the FBS.
An explosive play waiting to happen (trailing only Ashton Jeanty in runs of 15+ yards), Harvey is set to be a big part of the Broncos’ offense this season. Drafting him in the 7th round feels like a great value around RB24. Accordingly, an RB24 required 12+ points per game; players like Tony Pollard, Rachaad White, and Rico Dowdle accomplished that feat, and Harvey will this year.
Check in each week to see who’s moving in, ADP Rising and Falling! With more information coming out on who is getting 1st-team reps and who looks good, we’ll be ready! See you next week for more of the ADP Risers and Fallers series! On X, follow me, @JKeasy, as we can discuss moving ADPs, sleepers, and much more!
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