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Every week, Colby Conway and Bob Lung use the Forecaster Consistency Tool to help you win your Fantasy Football Prop Bets! Follow them @colbyconway and @bob_lung. If you are looking for some weekly NFL player props, you’ve come to the right place! There are ample player props out there, but Bob Lung and Colby Conway provide their favorite player props to target for this week’s action across the National Football League.
The consistency concept can be applied to player props, just like it has for daily fantasy sports and seasonal fantasy football, so find those consistent players to give yourself the best chance of winning some money betting on player props.
NFL Week 3 – Prop Picks – 9/25/26 – Prop It Like It’s Hot!
Week 3 – NFL Prop Picks
Geno Smith OVER 226.5 Passing Yards
The Lions’ secondary has been torched this year, and things don’t look any better heading into Week 3. Smith has completed over 70% of his passes through two weeks, while averaging 231 passing yards per game. Detroit will score points, meaning Smith and the Jets will have to keep up, which bodes well for his passing volume. Both Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell have good outlooks in this matchup, and with Detroit blitzing at the second-highest rate in the league, I expect Smith’s 8.95 yards per attempt and 118.5 passer rating when blitzed this year to prove quite effective.
Ashton Jeanty OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
Jeanty’s 3.41 YPC is underwhelming, as his yards before contact per attempt are in the 18th percentile amongst RBs with at least 10 carries, per FantasyPoints Data. However, the Saints have allowed 4.84 YPC this season and the league’s highest explosive rush rate, per FantasyPoints Data. Jeanty has handled 20+ carries through each of the first two weeks, and that many carries against a vulnerable New Orleans rush defense should push us past this line.
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Emmett Johnson OVER 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings) and 10.5 Receiving Yards (-113) (Combined – +234)
Colby and I are both all over these two props. The Chiefs have come out and said that they might want to try to take a few extra touches per week off Kenneth Walker’s plate, and Johnson is more than capable of handling a few more touches. I think his rushing yards prop is in play, too, but this 10.5 receiving yards line is way too low. He’s posted at least 20 receiving yards in each of the first two games, and he’s averaging 16 yards per reception! Miami has allowed the second-most receiving fantasy points per game to running backs this year, including a 100% catch rate (10/10), per FantasyPoints Data. The Miami Dolphins’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Their offense is also one of the worst. Therefore, in the first two weeks, their opponents rested their starting running backs after blowouts and let their backup running backs get touches. In those two games, they totaled 41 yards and 67 total yards, respectively. The Chiefs have an excellent backup in Emmett Johnson. We expect this game to get out of hand as well, which will allow Johnson to reach 25.5 rushing yards and 10.5 receiving yards. In a two-leg parlay, that is a +234. Interestingly, the Rush & Rec total yards prop is 40.5 yards, while the two separate lines total only 36 yards.
AJ Barner – Anytime Touchdown (+300 DraftKings)
I’m not normally one who plays the Anytime Touchdown prop, but the Washington Commanders have given up TWO TOUCHDOWNS PER GAME to tight ends in the first two weeks. Throw in the fact that Seattle used AJ Barner as the “tush push” runner last week for a touchdown, which gives me much confidence in him getting at least one touchdown this week.
Adonai Mitchell – OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114 DraftKings)
In the first two weeks, Mitchell had 60 and 63 receiving yards, respectively. This week, the Jets are traveling to Detroit. The Lions ranked DEAD LAST in giving up the most receiving yards per week. If the Jets want to stay in this game, they’ll have to throw early and often. This gives Mitchell an excellent chance to reach that over this week.
You can find & follow @colbyconway and @bob_lung on the X! And thank you for joining us for our Week 3 NFL Prop Picks and Best Bets!
