As fantasy football managers gear up for the 2025 season, the conversation around the top fantasy football quarterbacks is heating up. In a recent roundtable discussion, experts Bob Lung, James Knight, and Ron Rigney broke down the elite QB1A tier, focusing on consistency, draft value, and key supporting metrics. This article walks through each quarterback’s outlook to help you decide who to target—or avoid—in your drafts.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recent Big Guy Fantasy Sports Podcast.)
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Drafting Strategy for Quarterbacks
Many fantasy managers are backing away from early quarterback picks. All three analysts agreed: the fifth to seventh round offers the best QB value. Reaching for a quarterback in the second or third round often backfires. Late-round breakouts like CJ Stroud and Baker Mayfield have proven more profitable. Consistency, rushing upside, and draft value matter more than name recognition or last year’s rankings.
Lamar Jackson: Draft Cost Meets Elite Upside
Lamar Jackson finished as the top fantasy football quarterback in total points and consistency last season. He posted an 88% consistency rate and over 4,100 total yards with 41 touchdowns. That’s elite production by any measure.
Jackson’s improved passing, paired with Derrick Henry in the backfield, helped elevate his game. His current ADP sits around pick 25, placing him in the late second or early third round. While Ron is willing to pay that price, James is hesitant. Lamar has only thrown 30+ touchdowns in two of six seasons. When that number drops, his consistency falls off.
If you’re drafting Jackson this year, expect near-MVP numbers. Otherwise, you’re paying for a ceiling that may not return.
Josh Allen: Durable but Trending Sideways
Josh Allen’s 2024 wasn’t a banner year, but he still ranked fourth in total points and third in consistency (75%). His rushing touchdowns remain elite, and he rarely misses games. However, his ADP—just one pick after Jackson—makes him a tough sell for some.
Allen’s supporting cast is uninspiring. Khalil Shakir leads a thin receiver group, and although Dalton Kincaid and James Cook offer some help, it’s not elite. James Knight noted that Allen tends to fade late in the season due to wear and tear.
If Allen drops into the fourth round, he becomes interesting. Otherwise, fantasy managers may find better value waiting for other top fantasy football quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow: Elite Value in Round Four?
Joe Burrow rewarded managers in 2024, finishing second in total points and posting 71% consistency. Fully healthy for all 17 games, he threw 45 touchdowns and carried fantasy teams late into the year.
Burrow’s ADP currently hovers in the late third to early fourth round. All three analysts love his value if he slips past pick 35. Despite lacking rushing upside, Burrow could lead the league in passing touchdowns and yardage. His supporting cast includes Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and emerging rookie Jermaine Burton.
Cincinnati’s poor defense may force Burrow into weekly shootouts, making him one of the top fantasy football quarterbacks for volume-based scoring.
Jayden Daniels: Flashy but Unproven
Jayden Daniels tied Burrow with 71% consistency last season and finished fifth in total points. His rushing upside and improved offense under Kliff Kingsbury make him a popular breakout pick.
His ADP has climbed to the early third round, just behind Burrow. While the upside is clear, both Ron and James expressed caution. Daniels may be protected more than unleashed, with Austin Ekeler and Deebo Samuel handling a lot of the offense. As a rookie, Daniels still has much to prove.
Daniels is tempting, especially for managers seeking rushing quarterbacks. But with so many variables, he might not offer the reliability needed from a top fantasy football quarterback.
Jalen Hurts: Risky Bet with a Narrow Path
Jalen Hurts rushed for 14 touchdowns last year but threw only 18. He had just one 300-yard passing game and 67% consistency. His current ADP is around pick 38, yet most of the panel is staying far away.
Hurts remains surrounded by talent, including Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith. However, his production relies heavily on the controversial “Tush Push” for short-yardage scores. The panel questions whether this can continue without injury or defensive adjustment.
If Hurts doesn’t rush for double-digit touchdowns again, his fantasy value crumbles. At his current cost, there are safer top fantasy football quarterbacks to target later in drafts.
Final Thoughts: Stick with Value and Consistency
The panel agrees: elite quarterbacks can help, but drafting them too early often leads to disappointment. Joe Burrow provides the best mix of proven production and draft value. Lamar Jackson offers the highest upside but comes with more risk. Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels are solid, yet costly. Jalen Hurts is the riskiest of the bunch.
When targeting top fantasy football quarterbacks, focus on consistency and value. Let the board fall to you, and avoid paying ceiling prices in the early rounds.
Next week’s breakdown will cover the QB1B tier, where most managers are likely to find their starters.
