Football
Player ADP: Who is Too High and Too Low for Fantasy Football?
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The Average Draft Position for Fantasy Football is where you find value. I highlight a few players with ADP that are too high or too low. Who am I in on, and who am I out on?
As we get closer to the NFL season, drafts are occurring weekly. In fantasy drafts, the biggest advantage you can have is value picks against fantasy ADP.
Fantasy ADP (average draft position) is driven by consensus picks by all involved. Many players let their draft room software help determine who to draft; don’t do it.
Below are four players that are the furthest apart in their current ADP compared to my rankings. Also, if you haven’t already, sign up today to get full access to all of the tools available at BGFS!
Fantasy Football ADP Ranking Discrepancy (with consistency) – 6/17/2025 Fantasy Football: ADP
QB Caleb Williams CHI
The Chicago Bears brought in Ben Johnson as their new Head Coach, and the offense is expected to ascend to a new level. Johnson is well known for his offensive prowess, and Caleb Williams will benefit the most from this upgrade.
The Bears also revamped their offensive line (C, OT, and 3 OGs) to help protect Williams. They also drafted Colston Loveland (round 1 pick, 10th overall), Luther Burden (round 2 pick, 39th overall), and Kyle Monangai (round 7 pick, 233rd overall) to help improve the offensive weapons. Williams had the 12th-highest scoring fantasy season for a quarterback in his rookie season. In year two, he’s going to be better.
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(ADP positional rank: QB11, James’ positional rank: QB5)
Despite so many thinking that Williams struggled and his insane amount of sacks taken (68, most in the NFL), Williams produced numbers in year one. He finished as a fantasy QB2 or higher in ten of his seventeen games played, five as a QB1. His numbers were good enough to finish as QB16 overall for the year (ahead of Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Matthew Stafford).
Williams’ ADP shows he’s the 11th quarterback going off the board. I have him at QB5, and there’s a good chance he moves up a spot or two in those ranks before the season starts. Caleb Williams will become the Bears’ first-ever 4,000-yard passer this season, and he will break multiple records for the franchise. Prediction: 4,148 passing yards, 36 total touchdowns (32 passing, 4 rushing), 11 interceptions, 527 rushing yards
RB Alvin Kamara NO Fantasy Football: ADP.
RB17, are you serious? Alvin Kamara has been one of the best running backs in fantasy for 8 years, and he showed no signs of slowing down last season. He finished last season as RB9 overall and RB5 in points per game. His dropping to a mid-round RB2 in the rankings is disrespectful.
Last season, Kamara played in 14 games; he had ONE game under 10 points. He hasn’t finished worse than RB14 in points per game in his career: RB5/2024, RB3/2023, RB14/2022, RB6/2021, RB2/2020, RB8/2019, RB4/2018, and RB4/2017. Kamara doesn’t care about circumstances, competition, or anything else. He’s the definition of consistency when it comes to RB1 production.
(ADP positional rank: RB17, James’ positional rank: RB8)
Several names come to mind as undervalued running backs in fantasy. James Conner, David Montgomery, and Aaron Jones all come to mind. None of them come close to his production profile, and his 71+ receptions per year average over his career. His quarterback this year most likely will be one of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, or Jake Haener. Any of those three quarterbacks will lean on Kamara early and often this season. I have Kamara at RB8, it’s crazy to think that would tie for the second-worst fantasy finish of his career (I may still be too low on him).
In fantasy football drafts or already established leagues, Kamara is a clear-cut buy/draft at his price (late 3rd round, 45.9 overall). He’s been a “league winner” in previous years and is firmly entrenched in the top 10 for fantasy running backs. Fade at your own risk, I won’t be. Prediction: 873 rushing yards, 77 receptions, 612 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns (8 rushing, 3 receiving)
WR Tee Higgins CIN
This one might be a bit controversial, but hear me out. Tee Higgins is an insanely talented wide receiver. Higgins averaged 18.5 points per game last year, WR6 in that category. So why am I fading him this season? There are multiple reasons: missed games, a potential decrease in passing attempts, and Ja’Marr Chase (among other receiving options on the team).
Over the last two seasons, Higgins has missed ten games, five each year. Availability is always important in fantasy, and losing a player for almost 1/3 of the season is extremely detrimental. In Best Ball, we don’t mind as much; we may prefer the blowup potential, but not in redraft leagues. This is usually what fantasy analysts point to when/if they downgrade Higgins, but this isn’t my top reason (I’m not in the business of trying to predict injuries). We can’t completely ignore it, though.
(ADP positional rank: WR11, James’ positional rank: WR23)
Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals were 2nd in the NFL in passing attempts with 652 (only trailing the lowly Cleveland Browns at 661). This was due to the team being in shootouts every week. They averaged 27.8 points per game, 6th in the league, but they also gave up 25.5 points, 7th worst. The Bengals finished 3rd in the NFC North with a 9-8 record, which is not what they wanted. A slight uptick in better defense or attempting to control the clock by running more will limit the volume of the passing attack. If the attempts go down, so will the targets for Higgins.
My biggest concern is that ranking Higgins WR11 or as a WR1 in fantasy is that he’s not even the top wide receiver on his team. That designation belongs to Ja’Marr Chase and won’t change anytime soon. The Bengals had five players receive 60+ targets last season: Chase (175), Higgins (109), Mike Gesicki (83), Chase Brown (65), and Andrei Iosivas (61). Higgins has played five seasons, had 1,000+ receiving yards only twice, and maxed out at 110 targets (2021). For him to hit WR11, Chase would have to be removed from the equation (injury, trade, etc.). Prediction: 72 receptions, 989 receiving yards, 7 receiving touchdowns
WR Tyreek Hill MIA Fantasy Football: ADP
Fellow Big Guy Fantasy Sports writer Phil Factor wrote about Father Time catching up with everyone in the NFL. In his article, he let us know that Davante Adams looks like he’ll beat Father Time this upcoming season. Unfortunately for Tyreek Hill, I don’t think that’s the case.
Hill finished last season as WR18 overall and WR33 in points per game (12.8). It was a huge fall for a consensus WR1, especially considering he appeared in all 17 games for Miami. He’s coming up on year 10 in the NFL and is 31 as of March 1st. Father Time comes for all NFL players, but he’s especially known to affect those who rely on physical skills. Hill’s calling card has always been his speed. It’s just natural that his speed declines as he ages.
(ADP positional rank: WR13, James’ positional rank: WR21)
Many analysts and fantasy managers have been saying Hill’s decline was due to being injured. It became well known that he injured his wrist last year, and it was confirmed that he had surgery to repair ligament damage in the wrist back in February. My problem is that his catch percentage was very close to his career percentage, at 65.9 compared to 68.1. His targets (123) were down almost 50 per year compared to his previous seasons (170 and 171). A speedster wide receiver with a target decline isn’t great for fantasy.
Even with the wrist injury, it’s mind-boggling that Hill got 123 targets, 16th for WRs in the NFL, and only managed a WR18 overall finish. His Receiving Success Rate was 52% last year, the lowest since his rookie season at 50.6% (career average, 56.7%). His yards per reception mark of 11.8 was the third lowest of his career (career average, 13.9). For these reasons, it’s easy for me to fade Hill this upcoming season. I don’t want to be the guy overpaying at drafts and dealing with the frustration all season. Prediction: 83 receptions, 1,054 receiving yards, 7 receiving touchdowns
ADP gives us all an insight into what the masses are thinking, and we need to be fluid when drafting. The ability to select a top value per round is where the top contenders separate from the teams who miss the playoffs. Who do you think is overvalued by the current ADP? Undervalued? If you’re on X, follow me, @JKeasy, and let me know what you think. I’d love to hear from you!
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