“Bob Lung presents the facts and figures on why drafting Rookies can be very RISKY in the early rounds! You can follow or respond to him on Twitter at @bob_lung.”
The one question that I get asked every year is, “Why don’t you include rookies in your consistency analysis?” My answer has always been “They’re too inconsistent.” Or “College talent doesn’t always equate to NFL talent.” That normally leads to “Well, what about Odell Beckham, Jr., or Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley?” Good point.
So, I decided to back up my theory with facts. I accumulated the number of draft choices at the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, and TE) since 2010. For the past 15 years, there have been 560 of these players drafted in the first four rounds. I did only the first four rounds since that’s where most of the NFL starters come from. Yes, there are the Tom Bradys of the world who are drafted in Round 6, but those are few and far between.
Embed from Getty Images
The breakdown of the positions and rounds is as follows:
|
|
Rd 1 |
Rd 2 |
Rd 3 |
Rd 4 |
Total |
|
QB |
49 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
91 |
|
RB |
21 |
36 |
40 |
51 |
148 |
|
WR |
60 |
63 |
55 |
41 |
219 |
|
TE |
12 |
24 |
32 |
34 |
102 |
|
Total |
142 |
135 |
142 |
141 |
560 |
Next, I accumulated all the rookies who exceeded a 60% Clutch Rating (how consistent the player was during the season) and played more than 10 games in their rookie season since 2010.
|
|
90% -
100% |
80% -
89% |
70% -
79% |
60% -
69% |
Total |
|
QB |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
|
RB |
3 |
4 |
10 |
7 |
24 |
|
WR |
1 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
26 |
|
TE |
0 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
|
Total |
4 |
8 |
21 |
31 |
64 |
As you can see above, since 2010, only 64 TOTAL rookies have exceeded a 60% Clutch Rating in their rookie season. Around 48% of those players had a Clutch Rating between 60-79%, while only 19% had a Clutch Rating over 80%. In summary, it’s even rarer that a rookie has a Clutch Rating over 90% in his first season. Let’s look at the breakdown by position.
Quarterbacks – Rookies Versus Consistency
Embed from Getty Images
