Ron Rigney looks at those late round and undrafted values and what to expect from them next season using FantasyPros ADP numbers from the fantasy 2024 drafts. Enjoy! Follow Ron on X @ronrigney.
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David Montgomery – DET (overall ADP 65, 21st RB drafted)
We here at BGFS have much love for Mr. Montgomery, and his 92% clutch rating through Week 13. Believe it or not, he’s even more consistent than the number one back in total points, Saquan Barkley. Much of his overall point total has been from TD’s (he’s currently at 11 scores) but he also has tallied 720 yards on the ground and has been more of a factor in the passing game this season with at least three receptions in seven games this season. 11 of the 20 RB that were drafted ahead of Monty on average are sitting below his consistency mark. Most likely if he’s your RB2, you’re sitting in a great spot heading into the playoffs.
2025 Outlook
As long as this formula continues to work for Detroit, there won’t be a change with Gibbs and Monty being the focal point of the offense. It’s rare that two backs can be ultra-consistent and finish in the top ten in total points, but they both keep rolling. It’s possible to see a bit of a letdown if the TD’s aren’t as plentiful, but Montgomery is still going to give you that consistency your’re after on draft day.
Chase Brown – CIN (overall ADP 105, 37th RB drafted)
Hopefully you weren’t like me, and went all in on Zack Moss at pick 85. Between injuries and inconsistent play, Moss was a bust. Brown, however, sits currently at 67% consistent and has only missed a clutch game once since Week 3. Since Week 4, he’s tallied at least 15 touches in every game but one, including three games with at least five passing targets. It took a bit for him to fully take over, but it’s been worth the wait.
2025 Outlook
His contract is very affordable for Cincy, and with the firepower they have on offense, he’s a much better fit than Moss. Moss will be back in the fold for at least one more year as he signed a two-year 8-million-dollar deal before the season. He will see touches, but Brown will be the back who gets the most work. He’s going to be quite a bit more expensive in 2025 drafts.
Bucky Irving – TB (overall ADP 163, 53rd RB drafted)
Irving is further proof that you have to stockpile rookie RB in all formats. While sharing time with Rachaad White, Irving is 67% consistent, and 16th in total points. Not bad for a guy who was a clear backup when the season started. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per attempt and is coming off a season high of 152 rushing yards against the Panthers. Irving will go into 2025 as the more talented back in Tampa Bay.
2025 Outlook
Like the previous two backs on this list, prepare to pay a little more for Irving in 2025. Also keep an eye on what happens with the head coach/offensive coordinator positions as that will directly impact Irving’s 2025.
Chuba Hubbard – CAR (overall ADP 118, 43rd RB drafted)
You can make a solid argument that Hubbard’s output is one of the biggest surprises in fantasy. Heading into the season, Miles Sanders and Jonathan Brooks were supposed to factor in a bit more. Granted, Brooks is coming off a major injury, but didn’t Miles Sanders used to be good?
That hasn’t been the case this year. In a season that the Panthers would like to forget, Hubbard has been the main source of any fantasy consistency. Hubbard currently is 75% consistent and is 13th in total points. He’s already set a career high in rush yards (919), and rushing TD (7). He will hit 1000 yards for the first time in his career and also will set a career high in catches before 2024 is said and done. Not bad for a guy you got in the 9/10 round range. It’s very possible he’s outpacing most of the RB you drafted ahead of him.
2025 Outlook
This one is tough to predict. Hubbard is being paid as a number one back so it figures that he will be just that in Carolina. Sanders figures to be traded or cut, and Brooks will get carries based on the draft capital that was spent on him. Brooks also will have fantasy value, so be careful not to overpay for Hubbard in 2025.
