Rookies vs. Consistency - 2017 Edition

The one question that I get asked every year is “Why don’t you include rookies in your consistency analysis?” My answer has always been “They’re too inconsistent.” Or “College talent doesn’t always equate to NFL talent.” That normally leads to “Well, what about Odell Beckham, Jr. or LeVeon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott?” Good point.

So, I decided this year to back up my theory with facts. I accumulated the number of draft choices at the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR and TE) since 2010. For the past seven years, there have been 290 of these players drafted in the first four rounds. I did only the first four rounds since that’s where most of the NFL starters come from. Yes, there are the Tom Brady’s of the world that are drafted in Round 6, but those are few and far between.

The breakdown of the positions and rounds are as follows:

 

 

Rd 1

Rd 2

Rd 3

Rd 4

Total

QB

19

8

9

12

48

RB

10

20

16

27

73

WR

27

27

32

35

121

TE

3

12

16

17

48

Total

59

67

73

91

290


Next, I accumulated all the rookies who exceeded a 60% Clutch Rating in their rookie season since 2010.

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